How will the Hamas attack, House chaos and concerns about Biden’s age affect Utah politics?
Who will Utah voters support in the context of a world in turmoil and the U.S. House in disarray?
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
The once sacred rule, “All politics is local,” is becoming a canard. What happens in Washington, D.C., and occasionally elsewhere on the planet, increasingly impacts local elections in America. We consider the impact of national and international events on Utah politics.
The attack by Hamas on Israel has generated emotional responses and political activity. Meanwhile, U.S. House Republicans have been in chaos after ousting their speaker and struggling to elect a new one. Will these national and international events influence the 2nd Congressional District Special Election and municipal contests on Nov. 21, and could the impact spill over into 2024?
Pignanelli: “It was dangerous (to oust the speaker). What kind of message are we sending to our adversaries when we can’t govern, when we’re dysfunctional, when we don’t even have a speaker of the House?” — Congressman Michael McCaul, R-Texas.
For many generations, Utahns exhibited a deep affection for people of the Jewish faith in the state and throughout the world. Therefore, the condemnations from state leaders, and even average citizens, to the brutal, terroristic slaughter were direct and without equivocation.
A large majority of the Utah electorate anticipate local politicians to support Israel. Many candidates for mayor and city council offices will act accordingly. Democrats will need to establish distance from leftist congressional members and elite college activists issuing statements demeaning to Israelis. But if assistance to Israel is delayed or impacted by congressional chaos, Republicans will also feel frustration by some voters.
Troubling images will emerge as Israeli troops push through the Gaza Strip. Others throughout the country may protest such actions. But in Utah, the historic relationship with the Jewish people and Israel will remain a priority in public affairs.
Webb: Voters will have important questions for Utah candidates in upcoming elections. Utahns will determine who they support in the context of a world in turmoil and the U.S. House in disarray. Will a Utah candidate help bring sanity to national politics, and peace through strength internationally, or will the candidate create more chaos that weakens the United States?
Utahns should very much want to understand the positions of their politicians regarding the U.S. House fiasco, and the war in Israel, the war in Ukraine, and how to protect U.S. interests in a very scary world.
Republicans must be held accountable for the nasty, embarrassing, intraparty leadership brawl. Utah’s members of Congress may not be directly responsible for the fiasco, but what are they doing to prevent a similar future occurrence and to punish the renegades?
Meanwhile, isolationist Republicans ought to be defeated. This is no time to elect leaders who are soft on Russian aggression and its war crimes in Ukraine. Some Republicans can’t seem to connect Russia’s invasion in Ukraine with Hamas’ invasion of Israel, China’s intimidation of Taiwan, Iran’s warlike actions, and the menace of North Korea. They need to understand that going soft on Russia, allowing it to conquer Ukraine, will only embolden those other bad actors, increasing the likelihood of World War III.
National and international affairs are top-of-mind for voters this year and next, as they should be. Local and national candidates should respond accordingly.
President Joe Biden continues to suffer high disapproval ratings in polls conducted nationally and locally. Further, a CBS News survey revealed two-thirds of Americans do not believe Biden will finish his second term, revealing a new negative perception issue among voters. How will this impact local politics?
Pignanelli: Biden cannot catch a break. His age and frailty continue to haunt him, factors beyond any correction. Further, a recent survey documents that most Americans support Israel but disapprove of Biden’s handling of the conflict.
According to the CBS poll, Biden’s personality traits so attractive to voters in 2020 (calm, predictable) contrast with what the voters want in 2024 (tough, energetic). All this angst with the president could trickle down to local politics (as it usually does in other states). This will affect the congressional special election and those municipal races where voters have a perception of candidates’ ideologies — real or perceived.
Webb: We’re in a very perilous political period. The world is in turmoil and our two leading presidential candidates are old, unpopular and incompetent. The old world order, dominated by the United States, is being challenged by bad actors. Biden is incapable of providing the leadership needed, and Trump is so erratic and volatile as to be dangerous.
Are there any other potential late year surprises for politicos this season?
Pignanelli: If the controversy surrounding the House speaker creates issues in government funding or jeopardizing national security, the GOP will be held accountable. Democrats’ difficult Biden problems are “baked in” and unlikely to worsen. Normally, “October political surprises” must occur by now to have impact. But Utah’s elections are scheduled for Nov. 21 this year, expanding opportunities for potential trouble.
Webb: If national or international affairs cause the economy to crash, the political ramifications could be dramatic. Utah voters will look for leadership that is wise, steady, reassuring and dynamic.