What do state revenue projections mean for budgets and tax cuts?

Revenue projections for the current and upcoming fiscal year have been announced, and they generally provided good news

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Perhaps the most critical day of every legislative session is the announcement of revenue projections for the current and upcoming fiscal year. After months of nervousness, the projections generally provided good news. We ruminate on the political ramifications.

Legislative leaders colored the fiscal report as showing that Utah is returning to a strong but normal and balanced economy. One-time funds exceeded expectations in the General, Income, and Transportation funds. Ongoing revenues will see an additional increase in the Income and Transportation funds. Sales tax revenue, however, is expected to decrease. How will this shape the politics of the session?

Pignanelli: “What at first was plunder assumed the softer name of revenue.” — Thomas Paine  

Most members of legislative leadership are parents, with the experience of raising teenagers. Thus, they have firsthand knowledge of setting expectations, establishing limitations and occasionally issuing discipline. These are invaluable attributes in the legislative budgetary process.

Last year, there was a legitimate concern among economists that the nation and our state would be in a recession this season. Thus, available resources for state funded programs would be severely restricted. This was an especially difficult scenario in comparison to the prior years that were flush with pandemic funding from the federal government. Therefore, state officials were not shy in withholding commitments for additional funding requests leading into the 2024 session.

Our well-managed state, combined with the remarkable work ethic of Utahns, has once again paid dividends. Although over $1 billion worth of requests were made, more projects will likely be funded as a result of this careful governance. Many recipients who may have been denied under a recession plagued economy could benefit. The push for these new allocations will flavor the politics of the session’s final days.

Hopefully, there will be more gratitude from the beneficiaries than teenagers often exude.

Webb: Utah today enjoys stable tax revenues, sufficient for state needs, but without the enormous surpluses we have seen recently. The big budget question is whether the income tax should be cut by $160 million. Personally, I oppose a tax cut at this time. The national economy remains uncertain and world affairs are very jittery.

I can think of better ways to use $160 million than an on-going tax cut no one would really notice. We are all rightly concerned about the Great Salt Lake and future water supplies. Billions of dollars are needed for water development and conservation incentives. Putting $160 million each year into a water fund would be more helpful than a tiny tax cut.

Another bright idea: GOP legislative leaders are rightly concerned about federal overreach and the imbalance in the federal system. Many federal mandates require obedience at the threat of loss of federal funding. Putting $160 million a year into a “state freedom fund” would make the state less vulnerable to some unreasonable federal decrees.

I would like to see the state engage in a “laboratory of democracy” experiment with the federal government in a few carefully selected programs. The state would retain the federal tax money Utah citizens currently send to the federal government for those programs, allowing the state to administer those programs without federal oversight and without additional federal money. Having $160 million a year to make up for reduced federal contributions to those programs would ensure sufficient funding and more freedom for the state.   

Lawmakers grapple with impeachment, social media regulation and NIL

Each year, Utah’s toughest issues bubble up during the 45-day Legislature. We review some that are generating political controversy, especially the hazards of social media

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Each year, Utah’s toughest issues bubble up during the 45-day Legislature. We review some that are generating political controversy, especially the hazards of social media.

Utah State School Board member Natalie Cline is under intense pressure to resign because of her social media post questioning the gender of a high school female basketball player. Although she apologized, numerous state and local officials, including school board members, condemned her actions, with many demanding she resign. As of our column deadline, the Legislature was still considering a formal response. Regardless of actions taken, how does this discord shape the politics of social media?

Pignanelli: “Cline has done something really rare, she has offended everybody.” — Former Utah Gov. Gary Herbert, Hinckley Report  

I am a strong proponent of the “Utah Way” as a credo that emphasizes collaboration, mutual respect and a dedication to quality. But quieter aspects of the doctrine include intolerance of unethical conduct, thereby holding officials to a higher standard of conduct.

Social media is fervently attacked for harm caused to children and teenagers. Federal and state lawmakers focus tirades towards technology companies, with attempts to prevent cyberbullying and predatory actions. But this was not a student-on-student attack or a pervert’s criminal behavior. Cline is a well-known public official who fixated on a teenage minor with intent to deliver negative attention.

Regardless of Cline’s political future, her conduct has changed policy deliberations. We now have an awful warning some Utahns with power will utilize social media to injure the vulnerable. An unequivocal, robust cultural response to this deed from community and political leaders is the best antidote to prevent future incidents. An adherence to the Utah Way demands such reaction.

Webb: The Cline episode illustrates the worst of social media. In the good old days, a boorish person could say rude things about someone else and hardly anyone would know about it. Today, using the blaring megaphone of social media, the whole world can see cruel and outrageous posts. And, just as bad, victims see disgusting comments added by mobs of cowardly people using fake names, which compound the hurt and injustice.

Social media, used properly, enable healthy connections among family members, friends and people of goodwill. But social media also provide crude, boorish people a massive forum to spew their lies and hatred.

Before social media, we would just avoid such unpleasant people. Today, it is all but impossible to do so. Reading the comments after some social media posts and news stories is like walking into a putrid swamp full of mutant, creepy creatures. Just stay away. 

So, Cline should be ashamed and she should resign. The Legislature should see that she does so, or be impeached. All those cowards who piled on with their comments should be disgusted with themselves as well.

Meanwhile, several legislators (Sen. Mike McKell, Sen. Kirk Cullimore, Rep. Jordan Teuscher and Rep. Jay Cobb) announced new legislation to control the impacts of social media on children and teens. This includes platform safety with age verification processes and prohibiting the sale of minors’ data. Another bill addresses algorithms targeted towards children. Will these pass?

Pignanelli: As evidenced by recent congressional hearings, there is bipartisan and multidemographic support for this legislation in Utah and across the country. Yet navigating around First Amendment and privacy rights sends these statutes to the courts. Congress must act soon to protect children and companies from a patchwork of state legislation. Otherwise, the beneficiaries of these bills are attorneys spending years in litigation. 

Webb: I am happy my wife and I did not have to raise children in the age of social media. It is incredibly difficult to eliminate the evils of social media while preserving free speech and social media’s positive aspects. The first line of defense is parents taking responsibility, but they need help. The Legislature should try to hold social media companies accountable. But as technology evolves much more will have to be done, especially at the federal level.   

Student athletes in public universities use name, image and likeness, or NIL, contracts to receive financial compensation. Legislators are considering how to control these endorsements but allow the agreements to remain outside public scrutiny. What are the politics of this?

Pignanelli: Few on Capitol Hill embrace lucrative endorsement deals for college athletes; however the Supreme Court has spoken. Policy deliberations are whether these are private contracts or does the public have an interest. These students compete in taxpayer-funded facilities bearing the name of our state-owned institutions. Yet, lawmakers cringe from regulations that could prevent college recruiters securing the most talented athletes. The line where these contracts end and the relationship with the universities begins is blurred.

Webb: College athletes deserve compensation. But “Wild West” NIL will destroy college athletics as we’ve known them, concentrating top-tier athletes in a handful of elite schools. So, it must be brought under control and that will take some time. The trick is avoiding state regulation that puts Utah schools at a disadvantage, so athletes go elsewhere. Sensible NIL regulation ultimately needs to be imposed on a national scale.

What are the polls saying about the Senate race, governor’s race and presidential race?

Utahns are well-known, savvy, picky shoppers. They are demonstrating this ‘virtue’ in selecting their next U.S. senator and not rushing the decision

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Polls. Polls. Polls. For veteran observers (aka political hacks) like your columnists, these are manna from heaven. The Deseret News and the Hinckley Institute of Politics released several surveys in the last week that are savory. We share our thoughts.

In the first poll of Utah’s U.S. Senate race, the results among Republican voters were: Congressman John Curtis, 18%; attorney Brent Hatch, 14%; former House Speaker Brad Wilson, 8%; Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, 3%; other candidates combined, 5%; and undecided, 52%. What do these numbers reveal about Utah voters and the state of the race?

Pignanelli: “The key to getting the most from choice is to be choosy about choosing.” — Sheena Iyengar  

Utahns are well-known, savvy, picky shoppers. They are demonstrating this “virtue” in selecting their next U.S. senator and not rushing the decision.

But these numbers reveal much more. Hatch’s performance surprised insiders, a testimony to the deep affection for his beloved father, the late Sen. Orrin Hatch. The popular Curtis was expected to enjoy a leading position after seven years in Congress, yet private polls conducted last year yielded higher percentages for him. Wilson still needs to transform his good work as a lawmaker into an engine of support.

Curtis’ PAC allies and the Wilson campaign pumped television advertising late last year that produced limited benefits in the poll. This documents a trend in local and national elections that bombarding airways with commercials is no longer an effective tactic (as demonstrated by Celeste Maloy’s victory). Greater emphasis on grassroots politics, social media and clever messaging will deliver success in the June primary.

This race is still very much up for grabs and more than just a fat campaign account will move the needle among fussy voters.

Webb: Whoever wins this race will have to earn it. Curtis and Hatch have the highest name ID at this point, but that won’t be enough to win. We recently saw Congresswoman Celeste Maloy come out of nowhere to defeat better-known candidates. Congressman Blake Moore did the same in 2020.

Curtis is the front-runner, and rightly so. But all the other candidates will be targeting him, trying to define him as a moderate — the second coming of Sen. Mitt Romney (as though that’s a bad thing). In reality, Curtis is plenty conservative, but he’s not a flame-throwing, name-calling right-winger. He’s a thoughtful, practical conservative. The sort of conservative who actually gets conservative things done instead of just ranting about liberal failures.

A major question is whether Hatch can pull off what his father, Orrin Hatch, did way back in 1976. The elder Hatch, an unknown conservative firebrand, pulled off a big upset over better-known “establishment” candidates. 

And Wilson is not to be counted out. He has significant establishment support and has raised a lot of money, self-funding a big chunk of it. Money doesn’t guarantee a win but, spent wisely, money is a big factor.

Another poll result showed Gov. Spencer Cox enjoys a huge lead among Republicans in his reelection bid. He captures 50% support, with 14% combined for other candidates, and 37% undecided. Is this race over?

Pignanelli: Although diminishing in numbers, sunny, optimistic conservatives — like Cox — are a powerful force in American politics. Further, his achievements include economic prosperity despite a global pandemic and explain high approval ratings. Utah continues to be acknowledged as well-managed and poised to win another Olympic bid. His opponents’ standings reflect the difficulty of their messaging against a proven, popular incumbent.

Webb: A political earthquake would be required to prevent Cox from winning a second term. The right wing, of course, considers him a dastardly moderate. So Cox, of late, has been burnishing his conservative credentials. He may be pandering a bit to the far right but, at heart, Cox is a solid conservative. He’s also a practical, mainstream conservative who really cares about people. That’s a good thing. Cox should be able to keep most conservatives in the corral while also winning the moderate and independent vote.

A survey of 801 registered Utah voters shows a snapshot of the presidential contest, with Donald Trump winning 43% support; Joe Biden, 33%; and any another candidate, 24%. So, are a quarter of Utahns really interested in a third party?

Pignanelli: Many Americans and Utahns shudder at a possible rematch of the 2020 election, thereby promoting talk of third parties. These are not far-fetched discussions because Reform party candidate Ross Perot did score second place in Utah in the 1996 elections. Alternative choices (especially anti-vax conservatives or environmentalist liberals) could pull votes from either major candidate, with potential impact on the ultimate outcome. But the question is likely moot. Utah is a deeply red state and Trump will likely prevail.

Webb: On paper and in polls, a third-party candidate often looks good. But in actual voting, such candidates seldom do well. Ultimately, people don’t want to waste their votes. Lots of voters this year don’t like either Trump or Biden, so they are flirting with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. But on Election Day, most of them are going to say, “I think Biden is too old and feeble, but I can’t stand the thought of Trump in the White House again, so I’ll hold my nose and vote for Biden.” Or vice versa. People who don’t like Trump’s morals will vote for him anyway because they think Biden will keep the borders open and crash the economy. 

Does Nikki Haley have a chance in Utah?

Why does Donald Trump oppose Congress’ bipartisan immigration deal, and how will Utahns feel if Congress fails to deliver needed aid to Ukraine and Israel?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Utah lawmakers are marching efficiently through many budget and legislative issues, a number of them controversial. Meanwhile, at the federal level, political machinations continue to confuse and upset citizens, your columnists included.

Donald Trump is the clear favorite to secure the GOP nomination. However, Nikki Haley is continuing her campaign, for now. Both candidates enjoy endorsements from prominent Utahns, and a number of Utah Republican women are rallying support for Haley. So, what is the status of Utah in the presidential selection process at this point?

Pignanelli: “Nikki Haley is right to stay in and fight. No one has the right to shut her down.” — Peggy Noonan, The Wall Street Journal   

Last week, Jason Perry of the Hinckley Report revealed a recent presidential preference poll of Utah registered Republicans with the following results: Donald Trump, 49%; Nikki Haley, 22% (a sharp increase from results late last year); Ron DeSantis, 13%; undecided, 17%. Although still behind, Haley has momentum in Utah and a chance to prevail.

Conventional wisdom among national pundits is Haley has no path to victory. Yet for over eight years, the political environment has defied traditional parameters and expectations. The solid predictions of “experts” a decade ago were blown apart by changing demographics and shifting cultural mores. Therefore, much that is unexpected can happen between now and the GOP convention in July.

Haley’s conservatism and personal story is appealing to local Republicans. A strong showing by Haley in the Feb. 24 South Carolina primary could propel a good result in Utah (and other states) on Super Tuesday, March 5. This gives her enough delegates for a continued fight.

Betting on the unforeseen is risky, but the benefits are usually incredible.

Webb: I hope Haley stays in the race as long as possible. But her candidacy may not survive until Utah’s March 5 Super Tuesday caucuses. And the Utah Republican Party has also stacked the deck in favor of Trump by using caucus meetings to select Utah’s preference for the Republican nomination. Thus, barring something cataclysmic, Trump will be the Republican nominee and he will win Utah’s delegates.

I think Trump is the favorite to win it all, given President Joe Biden’s weakness. But it will be a very ugly campaign. And Trump, with his repulsive character, has offended enough independents and moderate Republicans to give Biden a shot at winning. 

A bipartisan immigration deal has had a chance of succeeding, at least in the Senate. However, Trump is opposing the compromise so he can continue to use the border crisis against Biden in the general election. Is this smart politics?

Pignanelli: Historians debate serious allegations that Richard Nixon prompted South Vietnam to walk away from peace talks to help him in the 1968 elections. There are other instances of delicate negotiations scuttled for electoral gain. But this issue has become so toxic that any supposed mischief could cause a serious blowback among voters toward the perceived perpetrators.

Immigration reform stalled this century on occasions when both parties controlled the White House and Congress. The current dynamics plaguing this problem are immense and will likely cause the legislation to fail, regardless of presidential politics.

Webb: Republicans are very close to allowing Donald Trump to dictate what happens in Congress, including immigration solutions, because they are terrified of getting crosswise with him. That’s a shame. As the immigration crisis worsens over the next eight months, with the flow of fentanyl and other illegal drugs only increasing, Republicans will have only themselves to blame for allowing Trump to use immigration as a campaign issue instead of solving it.

Will Utahns be upset if Congress fails to deliver needed aid to Ukraine and Israel?

Pignanelli: Utahns of my generation and older lived through the Cold War and understand the threat of authoritarian enemies. We support Ukraine to send a needed signal to adversaries who wish us harm. We care for the Israelis because they are loyal allies. But most younger citizens apparently prefer redirecting resources to domestic concerns. Thus, division among voters.

Webb: I, for one, will be upset if we don’t quickly provide more support to Ukraine and Israel. Aid to Ukraine may well be a casualty of the border crisis stalemate. And that would be tragic. Republicans say they won’t provide more funding for Ukraine until the border chaos is resolved.

I’m all for closing the border, but I am embarrassed that my party in Congress is becoming virulently isolationist and is willing to risk Russia taking over Ukraine — increasing the chances of widespread war. A Ukraine defeat means China becoming more aggressive with Taiwan and eventually invading; North Korea becoming more belligerent, unpredictable and provocative; and Iran expanding its proxy attacks on international shipping and U.S. forces.

All of that is certain to happen as these rogue countries run by dictators see weak-kneed Republicans unwilling to stand up and fight evil in the world. If World War III breaks out, you can blame congressional Republicans and Trump.

How effective was Gov. Cox’s ‘weird’ speech?

By any metric, this was one of the most unusual State of the State speeches in Utah history

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Every year, Americans are invited to watch the governors of the states and the president of our nation deliver speeches regarding the status of their governments. President Joe Biden will not deliver his State of the Union address until March 7. However, Gov. Spencer Cox delivered his State of the State speech near the beginning of the Legislature. Your columnists have observed this annual presentation by Utah governors since the early 1980s (which is a sad commentary on our social life). We provide a review and potential impact on the legislative process.

On multiple occasions during Cox’s Jan. 18 speech, he described Utahns and our culture as “weird.” But he also emphasized that this difference is the reason for such a strong economy and sound communities. By any metric, this was one of the most unusual State of the State speeches in Utah history. Was the governor’s presentation effective?

Pignanelli: “You have to be odd to be number one.” — Dr. Seuss 

Biden’s staff should watch Cox’s address and his admonition to the audience to avoid applause until the end. The national presentation is a tortuous, grueling event where clapping accompanies almost every sentence. Kudos to our governor for once again treating citizens with respect.

For many decades, the annual oration detailed the governor’s budget requests. But Cox subtly confirmed the Legislature controls the appropriations process and highlighted only a few of his monetary priorities. Instead, he focused on what he should be doing — inspiring the people of the state. It was a strange recipe to label our people and society as “weird.” But he is correct because we are different. I am proud to be part of that strangeness.

It was absolutely heartwarming the governor did not turn the evening into a series of partisan commercials. He complimented the efforts of various public servants while downplaying the differences between their political affiliations. Cox reminded us of the historic occasions when Utahns of different stripes worked together to solve problems.

The governor provided inspiration, enthusiasm, vision and excitement. He demonstrated the qualities of a leader that a weird population appreciates. Blessedly, he did it with only two applause demonstrations — at the beginning and end.

Webb: The governor made this unusual speech work well. Remember, this speech was not targeted at the trolls, the grouches and chronic complainers on both the left and right. If you want to see the reaction of the whiners, just read the nasty comments at the end of news articles about the speech.

The speech was meant for the vast majority of Utah citizens who are sensible, caring and open-minded. Cox connected with them. The speech was also fun, entertaining, good-natured, heartfelt and, in some ways, eloquent. Cox was being himself and not apologizing. That’s a good thing. Remember when Cox encouraged Utahns to pray for precipitation? He was roundly disparaged and mocked. But that was Cox being Cox. (And shortly thereafter we got record amounts of moisture. So there’s that.)

Some critics have said it’s hypocritical for Cox to come across as caring and inclusive while the Legislature is attacking diversity, equity and inclusion and transgender people — and Cox is signing the bills.

The reality is that Utah is a conservative state and there will be conservative legislation dealing with difficult issues. But when all is said and done, I’m betting the legislation will be reasonable. Both sides will be listened to and accommodations and compromise will occur. There is value in diversity, equity and inclusion and in protecting transgender people. But sometimes these social movements need to be saved from their excesses. That’s what Utah is doing.

So, yes, Utah is weird. But it’s working out quite nicely. People are voting with their feet. No one needs to come here if they think we’re too weird. But they are coming — and staying.

How will Cox’s speech play with legislative leaders, especially Senate President Stuart Adams and the new House Speaker Mike Schultz? Will the governor succeed in obtaining some of the important proposals in his budget?

Pignanelli: Legislative leadership hopes to address the shortage of roofs for the homeless and first-time homebuyers. However, it is hard to squeeze the amount of dollars necessary to tackle these big-ticket items in a lean budget year. Fortunately for Cox, the branches of government enjoy a closely aligned relationship.

Webb: SOS speeches don’t have a great shelf life and never have a big impact. But legislative leaders and Cox are friends. They like each other. Cox is more moderate than Schultz, for example, but they can talk and work things out. 

How effective was the Democratic response provided through Senate Minority Leader Luz Escamilla and House Minority Leader Angela Romero?

Pignanelli: Substantively, it is hard for the Democrats to disagree on the governor’s priorities (especially addressing homelessness). Thus, they shrewdly focused on clean air initiatives. Romero urged Utahns to engage in the legislative process to ensure their voices are heard — a critical message of the evening.

Webb: The formal response won’t have much impact, but Democratic legislators can be very effective in Utah. They sponsor major bills. They just can’t stop the majority when it really wants to do something.

California faces a $58 billion deficit. Arizona has a $1 billion deficit. Where does Utah stand?

California faces a $58 billion deficit. Our neighbor Arizona has a $1 billion deficit. Where does Utah stand?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

The Utah Legislature has concluded its first week of the 2024 session. The news media and numerous interest groups are closely monitoring the activities. As veteran observers (that means we’re really old), your columnists have a few thoughts about what we think will be a very interesting and productive session.

Both right-wing and left-wing forces are already hammering lawmakers on specific topics. But they aren’t mentioning the big picture, the context in which this session goes forth. The reality is that Utah government has been managed very well, and Utah is in remarkable financial shape in both the public and private sectors. Long-term debt is quickly being paid off, the state is paying mostly cash for infrastructure projects (including transportation, water conservation, the Great Salt Lake and housing solutions), education and social services are adequately funded and tax cuts are being provided. The state also maintains healthy emergency reserves. 

Why does this responsible conduct capture little attention in comparison to the so-called “culture wars”? Why is financial management such a high priority for the governor and Legislature?

Pignanelli: “Few things are brought to a successful issue by impetuous desire, but most by calm and prudent forethought.” — Thucydides, 460–400 BC  

Because I am a “gentile” who loves Utah and its people, I have no hesitation to make the public statements that many of my fellow citizens cannot. We have a heritage bestowed by the refugees fleeing religious persecution who began arriving in 1847, and then for the next 50 years confronted tremendous challenges, especially from the overbearing federal government. The prosperity achieved by the state’s founders is miraculous and not forgotten. Therefore, members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints have a legacy of safeguarding this inheritance through a dedicated work ethic and a focus on prudent responsible management. These virtues are also ingrained in Utahns that are not members of that faith (I was raised to follow them). Despite differences, we are united to fulfill a common vision reflected in the state’s accomplishments.

These achievements are relatively unfamiliar as most officials rarely advertise them. Further, the media tends to focus on the quirks of the legislative process while the extreme political fringes find fault in everything.

My children share the names of their mother’s handcart and oxcart pioneer ancestors, who I believe are pleased this wonderful bequest lives through them.

Webb: California faces a $58 billion deficit. Our neighbor Arizona has a $1 billion deficit. By contrast, even with a small downturn in revenue this year, Utah is flush with cash. Most people don’t understand the extent of Utah’s financial health. By paying off state debt, money previously used for interest payments is available for state needs. By paying cash for infrastructure projects with ongoing funds, instead of bonding, Utah has a multibillion dollar “working rainy day fund.”

That means if hard economic times occur and tax revenue takes a big hit, Utah can simply stop spending so much on infrastructure, and hundreds of millions of dollars will be available for critical state needs like education and social services. “We are ready for anything,” Senate President Stuart Adams told me.

Utah’s overall financial condition is the best in the nation, and better than I’ve seen in more than 40 years of watching the Legislature.

Some reporters and pundits are criticizing legislators for grandstanding on “message” bills and throwing red meat to their hardline party activists. Is this a problem that will interfere with the legislative process?

Pignanelli: The tactic of elected and appointed leaders making speeches and proposing actions that appeal to their political bases is at least 5,000 years old. Every session fosters criticism about these antics. But unlike Congress — which excels at the sport — our state legislators have this fun but also accomplish a great deal in 45 days. Welcome to representative democracy.

Webb: This is, no doubt, a very conservative legislature. But it is conservatism with the proper dose of good sense and practicality. I like conservatives who are also sensible and pragmatic. It’s important to remember, as I’ve written many times previously, that the proper way to judge a legislature is by the final product — the bills that are ultimately passed and signed — not by any questionable bill introduced, strange testimony given in a committee hearing, or an eyebrow-raising speech delivered on the House floor.

In a legislative body with 104 independently-elected members, each with strong opinions and ideologies, all sorts of weird things are going to come up. But, for the most part, only sensible legislation will survive the legislative gauntlet. Most of the outrageous stuff will be weeded out.

In a Jan. 11 editorial, this paper warned of impending doom because the federal government is in a fiscal mess. Why is Utah so good at this?

Pignanelli: Citizens are invited to watch (but few really do) the legislative appropriations process in which past and proposed expenditures are scrutinized, sometimes to an annoying degree. This is a product of the part-time legislative dynamic. Congress is devoid of such needed pressures.

Webb: The dramatic contrast in management excellence raises the question: Why do we continue to centralize more and more power at the federal level, which is dysfunctional and broke?

Will Trump be convicted in 2024? Predictions for the 2024 political year

Will Mitt Romney join Joe Manchin on a No Labels presidential ticket? Will President Joe Biden be impeached?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

We are frequently wrong, but seldom in doubt. Thus, we make bold, risky and wildly speculative predictions for the new year. Hang on to this column so you can cheer or laugh as we are shown to be seers or quacks. 

Will Donald Trump be convicted of a crime and jailed in 2024?

Pignanelli: “I try not to get involved in the business of prediction. It’s a quick way to look like an idiot.” — Warren Ellis   

The former president is vulnerable on the records charges, and will be found guilty for mishandling some documents. He will be admonished, but he will not serve any time. Also, all the trials on the criminal indictments will be postponed until after this election year. Trump will not be wearing orange jumpsuits in 2024.

Webb: Trump will be convicted on at least a few of the 91 felony charges against him across four cases. But delays and appeals will keep him out of jail. The convictions will not hurt him with his diehard supporters.

Will Utah’s GOP presidential preference vote in March caucus meetings give Trump an advantage?

Pignanelli: Yes. If Utah was conducting a preference ballot for all registered Republicans, Nikki Haley would garner a huge victory. The precinct caucus vote system will result in a much tighter contest between Haley and Trump, but she still wins.

Webb: Participation in the caucus meetings will be very low, compared to a normal primary election vote. With committed GOP activists making up the bulk of caucus attendees, Trump will have a big advantage and will win.

Will 2024 be a repeat of Trump versus Joe Biden? Who will win? If not Trump-Biden, who are the nominees and winner?

Pignanelli: The desire among Republicans to beat Biden will cause a deadlocked national Republican convention in July. After several ballots, Haley prevails. Tensions are eased within the GOP and Republicans eagerly unite behind their ticket. Because the economy is improving, Biden stays in the race and is nominated. Democrats lose enthusiasm. Haley wins both the popular and Electoral College vote.

Webb: Unfortunately, Trump and Biden will win their respective party nominations. The general election will be a stinky dumpster fire featuring old, unpopular, deeply flawed candidates. No one will be enthusiastic about the choices except party die-hards. Trump will eventually crawl out of the dumpster debris as the Electoral College winner.

Will Mitt Romney join Joe Manchin on a No Labels presidential ticket?

Pignanelli: No. But he plays a prominent adviser role and will be a public spokesperson for the cause if Trump and Biden are the nominees.

Webb: Romney will be greatly tempted to join a No Labels ticket, especially if it might reduce Trump’s chance of winning the nomination. But he will ultimately decide against running, concluding that No Labels might hurt Biden as much as Trump.

Will the contest for the U.S. Senate nomination in Utah be an ugly fight between local and national factions within the GOP?

Pignanelli: Contrary to current opinion, the fight for the U.S. Senate primary will be a well-funded cage match. Brad Wilson and John Curtis are wonderful individuals and extremely competent politicians but will face difficulty controlling the trajectory of this race. The hostile dynamics between different Republican factions in other parts of the country will foment a proxy battle in the state. Utahns will be frustrated with the bombardment from outside interests.

Webb: The Senate GOP primary race will get unpleasant, especially if Trump makes an endorsement in the race, likely favoring Brad Wilson over John Curtis. Nationally, the race may be perceived as the far right, represented by Wilson, against the more moderate Curtis.

Will Democrats or Republicans control the U.S. House after the November elections? The U.S. Senate?

Pignanelli: If Trump is the nominee, the House flips Democrat (barely) and the Senate goes Republican. If Haley is nominated, her coattails deliver the House and Senate a strong GOP majority.

Webb: Republicans win the Senate, unless Trump helps nominate too many far-right, unelectable candidates. Democrats narrowly take over the House, because the fractious Republicans can’t get anything done there. Divided government and more dysfunction and gridlock are assured after the election. 

Will the Republican-controlled House impeach President Biden during this election year?

Pignanelli: The House impeaches Biden but the Senate acquits him.

Webb: The House will spend a lot of time investigating and pontificating, but cooler heads will eventually prevail and no impeachment vote will be taken.

Will the Republican nomination for Utah governor be competitive?

Pignanelli: Gov. Spencer Cox’s intraparty challengers will be vocal and aggressive throughout the convention and primary elections, providing a perception of competition. But the incumbent prevails overwhelmingly.

Webb: Arch-conservatives will make a lot of noise, but Cox is well-liked and will easily win reelection.

Candidate Filings, Who is Running for Office in 2024?

Dear Friends, 

The 2024 Candidate Filing Deadline was moved to January 8th, before the legislative session commences on January 16th. We now have  exciting announcements about Utah politics.
 
Lawmakers not seeking Reelection:
-Susan Pulsifer (South Jordan) - Rich Cunningham, former legislator known as the “Honey Badger”, is running for this seat
-Marsha Judkins (Provo) - running for Michelle Kaufusi’s seat as Provo Mayor
-Robert Spendlove (Sandy) - this renowned economist has been serving in the Legislature since 2015, and will be missed
-Dan Johnson (Logan) - two Republican candidates have filed for his seat
-Phil Lyman (San Juan) - will be running for Governor
-Jay Cobb (South Jordan) - served one term representing District 48
-Gregg Buxton (Weber County)- Senator Buxton decided to retire and Rep. Cal Mussleman will be running for this seat, thus leaving his house seat open
-Brian King, Democrat Representative from Salt Lake City, is running for Governor

Multiple incumbent lawmakers are facing inter-and intra-party challengers. Of interest are the following:

Elected in 2000, Curtis Bramble (Utah County) is an established force on Capitol Hill and led the National Conference of State Legislators. But Bramble has attracted formidable opposition within the GOP, including former lawmaker Brad Daw and current House member Keven Stratton. Politicos were surprised when former Sen. Dan Hemmert jumped into the race. Hemmert is former director of the Governor's Office of Economic Opportunity, a successful business leader, and became one of Utah’s top contract lobbyists. 

Recently appointed Hiedi Balderree for Senate seat 22 will face Emily Lockhart, daughter of former House Speaker Becky Lockhart in the election to fill the term.

Other developments include:
State Treasurer Marlo Oaks faces one Democrat challenger, Neil Hansen, the former state rep from Ogden who has run for treasurer, governor, and Ogden mayor.

Candidates in line for the office of State Auditor currently held by John Dougall are Republicans Ricky Hatch, Weber County clerk, and Tina Cannon. Chatherine Voutaz is the Democrat challenger.

Sen. Thatcher is running for Salt Lake County Council but will not have to give up his Senate Seat unless he wins.

Shake up on the Federal Races:
Announced running for Romney’s U.S. Senate Seat -

-Brad Wilson, Republican, resigned his position as Utah’s Speaker of the House to run for the Senate in September 
-Rep. John Curtis, Republican, the current representative of Utah's 3rd District in the U.S. House of Representatives.
-Brent Orrin Hatch, Republican,the son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch,  attorney and  former associate White House counsel to President George Bush (41)  and a law clerk to Judge Robert H. Bork.
-Carolyn Gleich, Democrat
-Carolyn Phippen, Republican, current director of Freedom Front of Utah, and former legislative staff
-Trent Staggs, Republican and current mayor of Riverton
-Archie A Williams III, Democrat, former Orem City Council candidate.

Celeste Maloy will be back on the ballot to defend her seat in U.S. House District 2. Her opponents include:
-Ty Jansen, Republican who ran against Lee in 2022
-Colby Jenkins, Republican and former counterterrorism policy advisor to the Secretary of Defence
-Brian Adams, Democrat
 

Running for John Curtis’ seat for U.S. House District 3:
State Sen. Mike Kennedy, who won the 2018 convention against Mitt Romney for nomination to the U.S. Senate, is midterm and therefore enjoys the flexibility to run.
-Rod Bird Jr., Republican, the mayor of Roosevelt
-Kathryn W. Dahlin, Republican, is a former legislative aide in the U.S. Senate, and Republican state delegate
-John Dougall, Republican, has served as the state auditor since 2013 and for 10 years prior was a state representative
-Chris Herrod, Republican, notable for several runs against Curtis. He has won two State Republican convention nominations, but has not overtaken Curtis in the primary
-Clayton B. Hunsaker, Republican
-Case Lawrence, Republican, former CEO of Circus Trix
-Stewart Peay, Republican, former candidate for State GOP Chair, and a military veteran
-Glenn J. Wright, Democrat

Governor;s Race:

-Gov. Spencer Cox, Republican, seeking a second term and was sworn in as governor of Utah in 2021
-Carson Jorgensen, Republican, is a former state Republican Party chairman and congressional candidate
-Brian Smith King, Democrat, is a former Utah House minority leader and eight-term lawmaker
-Phil Lyman, Republican, is a state representative from Blanding
Scott Robbins, Republican

Attorney General's Race:
This is an open seat as AG Reyes will not be seeking reelection. Most notable candidate for this seat is Derek Brown, Republican, is an attorney, former Utah GOP chairman, former state lawmaker and congressional staffer.
Other Republican candidates include State Risk Manager Rachel Terry, Frank Mylar, and Trent Christrensen. Democrat challengers are David Calrson, and Rudy Bautista.

Lawmakers having notice of filed opponents during the session will be a new dynamic In Utah politics.Veteran observers will be watching to determine the impact on deliberations and policies.