It’s establishment Biden vs. revolutionary Bernie
Anyone who believes politics is boring likely does not have a pulse. Last week demonstrated the capriciousness of politics, nationally and locally. We explore the ramifications of the presidential primary and the unusual pressures in the legislative budget process.
Presumed dead, former Vice President Joe Biden defied all expectations and is now the front-runner for the Democratic nomination. Yet, in Utah, he did poorly, while Sen. Bernie Sanders won big. What does this say about local politics?
Pignanelli: “Bloomberg proved … a presidential nomination can’t be bought with all the money in the world.” — Jeff Greenfield
The old canard a Utah Democrat is a Republican anywhere else was finally demolished last week. Sanders garnered almost 80% in 2016 and placed first this year with 35% against a much wider field. Combined with 15% captured by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, firm evidence demonstrates the progressive left is a major influence in Utah’s Democrat party.
Other surrounding states also went for Sanders, highlighting major demographic shifts in the Western United States. These include the rise of Latino and millennial voters, indicating strong trends in regions with expanding populations.
Utah Democrats seeking federal office or state positions in swing districts must appeal to independent and moderate Republican voters to succeed. But a strident progressive element demanding adherence to all their positions makes this problematic. The ultimate nominee selected will either soften or empower this emerging dynamic.
A new canard for Utah Democrats could be written this year.
Webb: The Bernie win shows that while Utah is one of the nation’s most conservative states, Utah Democrats are as liberal — or more so — as anywhere in the country.
Assuming Biden wins the nomination, having him at the top of the ticket won’t especially excite Utah Democrats, but Biden is a lot better for down-ballot Democrats than Sanders. One warning sign for Utah Democrats is that Republican voting in the Utah primary was dramatically higher than Democratic voting, even though Republicans had little motivation to vote. Trump received over 100,000 more votes than all the Democrats combined. That’s good news for Republican congressional candidates. It means Congressman Ben McAdams will need a lot of Republicans and independents to cross over and vote for him. Bloomberg’s poor finish shows, as elsewhere in the country, that money can’t buy political love. The Democratic primary is now a two-person race between Biden and Sanders. Will this be a protracted fight to the convention?
Pignanelli: Older traditional Democrats finally expressed their opposition to an avowed socialist taking over their party. They appreciated the Vermont senator’s compassion, but feared the potential disaster with him as a nominee. But Tuesday nights results also revealed that an internecine war is further developing. In almost every state, adding Sanders’ and Warren’s results, while comparing them to the combination of Biden and Michael Bloomberg, reveals an almost even split between far left and moderate camps. In Utah and other states, the factions will argue over local conventions, delegates, party machinery and other elements of control. This is a fight of ideology and personality (Bernie vs. Joe), so the two major candidates are incentivizing deep emotion amongst their followers. Webb: Biden will win the nomination because Democrats finally got real. Boring Biden is a lot safer than revolutionary Bernie. So, the Democrats’ rousing 2020 rallying cry is going to be: “Vote for Joe. He’s safe!” That should inspire a lot of Democratic voters. Of course, in the age of Trump disruption and chaos, perhaps humdrum safety is what voters want. But, remember, Democrats tried a safe, establishment candidate in Hillary Clinton and it didn’t work so well. The full spotlight of media and Republican scrutiny will now be focused on Biden. Whether he can hold up is an open question. Over the years, many candidates have emerged as front-runners, only to fade under the glare. And Trump would easily win if he would just stop being crazy. He gets the big things right, but then squanders the goodwill with stupid tweets. I expect much more turmoil before this thing is over. And the coronavirus impact is unknown. In the midst of the primary hoopla, Utah lawmakers continue to grind through the state budget process. Despite a booming economy, Utah’s general fund simply cannot keep up with basic demands. How will lawmakers deal with these challenges? Pignanelli: Legislators should — but will not — hang a huge banner in front of the state Capitol declaring, “We told you so.” The revenue problems of the general fund are creating consternation for policymakers and recipients. There will be some suffering at every agency but education. Further, there will be a variety of traditional and creative taxing tools to alleviate the shortfall. Webb: The general fund shortfalls are evidence that tax reform is desperately needed. Lawmakers will muddle through this session, but Utah’s next governor has a big problem. Legislators know how to solve the problem, but can they convince wary voters that fixing Utah’s structural imbalance is in everyone’s best interest?