Who will win Tuesday’s primary elections in Utah?
This year, Utah’s primary races have been unusually robust. Although logic is rare in politics, a solid rationale does explain the many primaries and the emotional volatility surrounding them
Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
This year’s primary election, which ends Tuesday, has been more intense and active than most past primaries, especially in the top races. We explore why that is the case, make a few predictions and assess what comes next.
There have been more serious challenges and more turmoil in this year’s primary than most we remember. Why is that, and what does it mean about the state of politics in Utah?
Pignanelli: “The gulf that separates Republicans and Democrats sometimes obscures the divisions and diversity of views that exist within both partisan coalitions.” – Pew Foundation
Although logic is rare in politics, a solid rationale does explain the many primaries and the emotional volatility surrounding them. Many political veterans conjecture at least four major political parties exist in our country. There are classic Reagan Republicans, Trump Republicans, Progressive Democrats and slowly diminishing moderate Democrats. A recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll revealed among Republican respondents, 51% stated former President Donald Trump best represents them, 42% prefer affiliation with U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney and 8% chose someone else.
The primary skirmishes in Utah reflect the dynamics across the country as forces within the GOP wrangle for control. Challengers are questioning incumbents’ fealty to conservative dogma and oftentimes the former president. However, the local difference is that endorsements by the former president are not dominating political advertisements. Tuesday’s election results will determine the future of the Utah Republican Party.
A handful of Democratic primary legislative contests will also be decided on Tuesday. As in other regions, those candidates are competing for progressive support.
The nation’s 2022 congressional midterms will establish the groundwork for the 2024 presidential contests. Similarly, the upcoming Utah primaries will structure the Republican messaging and candidacies for federal, statewide, congressional and legislative offices in 2024. Hopefully, the results on Wednesday morning will make some sense.
Webb: This year’s political environment is highly volatile, and no politician feels comfortable, even longtime incumbents. With high inflation (especially gas prices), a looming recession, a housing crisis, food insecurity, war in Ukraine and political dysfunction and division, the electorate is highly restless. A lot of angry voters are out there, so it’s a dangerous time for incumbent politicians.
That’s why we’ve seen more serious challenges to Utah’s incumbent members of Congress than in many years. Some challengers are attacking from the right, and some from the left. Incumbents have been forced to raise a lot of money and, for a primary election, they are running a surprising amount of advertising.
Congressmen Blake Moore and John Curtis are fending off primary opponents who argue they are too moderate. Rep. Chris Stewart and Sen. Mike Lee are being criticized for being too far right. Most years, the incumbents would shrug off token opposition. But this year they are taking it seriously enough to air substantial advertising touting their accomplishments and conservative credentials.
Lee likely isn’t in much danger in the primary, despite two good GOP opponents in Becky Edwards and Ally Isom. But Lee needs to position himself properly for the general election against independent Evan McMullin.