Are Republicans losing their edge in the upcoming midterm elections?
Biden has had recent success, and Trump’s ‘stolen election’ claims are only hurting the Republican Party. What does this mean for November?
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
On behalf of all politicos, we humbly request that readers be patient with our analysis of the weirdest midterm elections ever. The environment is constantly changing and established rules are irrelevant. We do our best to explain the most recent strange developments.
NBC News recently released a poll indicating that the expected red wave of Republican victories in November is in doubt. Despite high inflation, the economy is no longer the major issue, but “threats to democracy” are. Although they are in power, left-wingers and Democrats are just as mad as Republicans, narrowing the enthusiasm gap. And President Joe Biden has had some legislative successes. What is happening and how does it affect local elections?
Pignanelli: “Americans are angry, anxious and fired up to vote. The new NBC poll shows we may be in uncharted political territory as untested candidates, unpredictable turnout and the Trump factor are all shaking up the midterm environment.” — Chuck Todd, NBC News
Kaleidoscopes are fun toys; when rotated rapidly, they cause a motion of the materials inside and an ever-changing view. We are enduring a kaleidoscope political environment. According to a recent NBC News poll, 74% of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, 68% believe a recession exists and 61% are willing to carry a protest sign. Apparently 160 million American adults (Democrats, Republicans and independents) are enraged. Voters are bombarded with allegations their republic is in danger because of fraudulent elections or attacks on the constitutional process.
Unforeseen dynamics abound, including Supreme Court decisions, the search of Mar-a-Lago, protracted war in Ukraine, inflation rates not seen for 40 years, etc. Deep internal struggles plague both political parties. All this turmoil is causing the frequent shifts in the national political atmosphere.
Usually, voter preferences are established by Labor Day — but not this election season. America’s political environment is a true kaleidoscope, because with every turn, results are unpredictable and potent.
Webb: Democrats are nearly jumping for joy as the liberal media narrative has quickly turned from November doom and gloom to, “This midterm is different and Democrats have a path to victory!”
It’s true that this election is less predictable than usual. But I’d keep my wishful thinking in check. We’ve seen too many past elections where pollsters and wise political analysts have underestimated Republican enthusiasm and turnout. That’s as recent as 2020, when Trump was supposed to lose by a much larger margin and Republicans weren’t supposed to pick up nearly as many House seats as they did.
Still, even an old skeptic like myself wonders if at least some of the Democratic hype may be true.
The wild card in this election is Donald Trump. While his impact cuts both ways, on balance it is negative for Republicans in swing states and close races. We’re talking about razor-thin margins here. A few thousand votes in a few key races may mean the difference in control of Congress. Republicans need to win moderate and independent votes in those races. But Trump and his “stolen election” claims and the cringy candidates he got nominated, are not attractive to those mainstream voters. Were it not for Trump, some of his nominees and the whole “stolen election” nonsense, Republicans would be winning in a landslide.
Trump antagonist and Congresswoman Liz Cheney lost her primary election by a huge margin. In her concession speech, she challenged Republicans to change direction. With a few exceptions, other Trump supported candidates have been winning primaries throughout the country. Does this mean anything for the reelection of Utah’s congressional delegation?
Pignanelli: A century has passed since a former president had so much impact on inter-party elections (Theodore Roosevelt). Recent primary results promote the perception Trump is prevailing. This is creating angst for left and some moderate voters, which Evan McMullin is attempting to leverage in the Senate race.
Utah Republican candidates for federal office are subject to inquiries from the media and voters regarding Cheney. However, Blake Moore performed well in his primary despite attacks that he was too close to the Wyoming Congresswoman. This suggests that Utah voters have a limited appetite for these internecine wars.
Webb: The big danger for Utah’s members of Congress was in the primary election and they all emerged unscathed. Most of them should waltz to victory in November. The exception might be the U.S. Senate race between Sen. Mike Lee and independent Evan McMullin. If Lee takes the race seriously, runs hard and appeals to mainstream Republicans, not just the far right, he should winre-election fairly easily. As first-termers without long-standing support, 1st District Rep. Blake Moore and 4th District Rep. Burgess Owens also need to run smart, visible campaigns to connect with voters.
Amid the confusion, is there any chance for Democrats in Utah?
Pignanelli: Despite all the fury, the sentiment against President Joe Biden creates problems in federal races. Yet, candidates in some down ballot races may have opportunities if they demonstrate a distance from the national Democrats. Clever messaging on local issues is their best strategy.
Webb: Democrats themselves answered that question when they declined to nominate a Democrat in the Senate race and instead supported McMullin. Democrats can still win big in left-leaning Salt Lake City. They can win Salt Lake County and swing districts within the county if they nominate excellent candidates and run great races.