What’s in the forecast for 2023 politics?

The 2024 presidential posturing has already begun, and several Utah politicians are preparing for reelection campaigns

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

2023 is an off-election year featuring municipal races and plenty of posturing for the big 2024 presidential year. We note what to watch for and make a few predictions. Next week we take a look at the upcoming legislative session.

Prospective candidates for major 2024 races will likely announce their intentions this year. Will Gov. Spencer Cox, U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney and President Joe Biden seek reelection? How will the national and local parties adjust to the post-midterm environment?

Pignanelli: “Trump is certainly not who he used to be.” — Mike Dennehy, GOP consultant 

Most Americans are struggling through their New Year’s resolutions. We will soon discover if political leaders are adhering to theirs. Of course, this would mean that Republicans move away from election deniers, allegiance to former President Donald Trump, crazy conspiracy theories and towards economic, immigration and foreign policy solutions. Democrats should be veering away from ultra-progressive policies and extreme cultural positions that anger mainstream voters.

In this new environment and possessing strong approval ratings, Cox will file for reelection. Romney is a flag bearer for his expanding wing of the party and seeks re-election. Had Democrats suffered a beating last November, Biden would be pushed aside. But after the surprising results, party kingpins are now behind him and he runs.

2023 will be critical because voters expressed desires for more substance and less extremist rhetoric from either side. As usual, whoever follows their New Year’s resolutions will benefit from the discipline.

Webb: 2023 is a big political year. Major campaign events happen early in 2024, so 2023 will be critical for candidates to position themselves. Cox will certainly run in 2024 and I predict that Romney will as well. Biden is giving every indication he will run, but that could easily change. I personally hope Biden will not run. He is too old, too frail. It’s time to turn the presidential election over to a younger generation of candidates.

Unfortunately, Trump is too arrogant and selfish to be willing to walk away. He will hurt Republican prospects in 2024 and it won’t end well for him. He will either be defeated in the GOP primary, or will be defeated later by the eventual Democratic candidate.

In general, going into 2023 I believe more Americans are aligned with traditional conservative/Republican values than liberal/Democratic values. However, nationally, the Republicans are so divided, so much in disarray, that 2023 and 2024 are going to be difficult years for them. The uncompromising, unreasonable Trump wing of the party will stymie progress and hurt other Republicans. Nationally, Republicans are perfecting the art of the circular firing squad, as demonstrated by the battle for the House speakership.

Thankfully, Utah Republicans are a lot more sensible.

Some major Utah mayoral races will be featured this year. What are the prospects for Utah’s big city mayors? What are the likely issues?

Pignanelli: Utah will continue to expand in population and economic vitality for many years. This brings benefits and concerns that underly the election issues for mayoral and city council candidates. Obviously, the race to receive the most attention is the reelection campaign of Salt Lake City Mayor Erin Mendenhall. Currently, former Mayor Rocky Anderson is the announced challenger and there may be others. Anderson hit the ground with a press conference, billboards and fundraisers. Mendenhall is quietly securing her support with personal contact outreach, combined with multiple announcements of credible achievements in her toil to solve homelessness.

Utah is blessed with other effective mayors and politicos will be watching their reelection efforts. These include Millcreek (Jeff Silvestrini), Ogden (Mike Caldwell), West Jordan (Dirk Burton), Layton (Joy Petro). 

Webb: Utah’s municipal election this year will feature hundreds of city council races in most cities, and a handful of mayoral races, Salt Lake City being the biggest prize. Salt Lake City is a liberal island in a conservative ocean resulting in some SLC mayors fighting with the Legislature and governor. But Mendenhall seems to have figured out how to get along, even while championing liberal causes. That bodes well for her reelection. Rocky Anderson has significant support, but I doubt city residents want to return to the days of contentious political battles. 

Will a divided Congress accomplish anything, or will it mostly be bogged down in partisan politics?

Pignanelli: After the confusion surrounding the speaker’s election is resolved, the Republican Conference will need to focus on a strategy that appeals to voters in anticipation of 2024 beyond investigations (i.e. Hunter Biden) and impeachment hearings on cabinet members. This will compel efforts regarding the economy, energy and immigration. Last year, the Senate achieved some important bipartisan achievements, which could happen in 2023 while pressuring the House for accommodations.

Webb: When Democrats controlled the House, they were reasonably disciplined under the iron fist of Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Republicans are a disorderly mess as they take over. Congress is not only divided, it’s dysfunctional.