Are young Latter-day Saints leaning more liberal?

Donald Trump alienated many young Latter-day Saints, but these roaming voters won’t necessarily flock to Democrats

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Utah is a great place to live, work and raise a family. But everyone agrees that it has interesting dynamics. In some ways, it’s unlike anywhere else in the country or world. We offer commentary on a few trends that various experts believe are occurring in the state.

Ryan Burge, a professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University, conducted an exhaustive survey of Americans’ political preferences. A section of respondents were members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. He believes the data documents that younger church members are significantly less conservative than older adherents. Other experts provide similar conclusions. Is such a shift occurring, and what are the ramifications?

Pignanelli: ”I don’t think you can overstate how offensive the GOP’s unabashed embrace of Donald Trump (and all that entailed) was to a lot of Latter-day Saints, especially younger ones.” — McKay Coppins, The Atlantic   

An absolute rock-solid currency is the decency inherent in church members. This wonderful trait is exhibited daily, throughout the world, in multiple activities. Consequently, these impressive characteristics percolate in political deliberations. Whether originating from the left or right, extreme harsh rhetoric, accompanied by disrespect to others, is unsettling to the Latter-day Saint faithful — particularly those under 40 years old.

This verdict is more than theoretical musing. Independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin garnered 21.3% of Utahns voting in 2016 because many in the state could not stomach the nastiness exhibited by the Republican nominee Donald Trump (and were unhappy with Hillary Clinton’s harsh characterization of her detractors). Conversely, Gov. Spencer Cox fits the profile of what these millennial and Generation Z citizens want from their politicians, which bodes well for his future. While data from various sources illustrate this trend, it does not guarantee automatic gains for Democrats. The left will need to adjust messaging to capture these roaming voters.

This begs the question of convention delegates in both parties. The extreme views of these activists do not sit well with this incoming cohort into the church. Whether in Utah, or other parts of the country, candidates who understand the decency of Latter-day Saint constituents will attract their support.

Webb: Most people have heard the quote attributed to Winston Churchill (and various others) that anyone under 30 who is not a liberal has no heart, and anyone over 30 who is not a conservative has no brains. There is some truth to that adage. It seems every young generation is liberal, and experts predict they will turn the country more liberal as they age. But it usually doesn’t happen.

Most young people are idealistic, as they should be. They are the product of an education system that leans left and they wish to create a society that is more inclusive, more just, more equitable and more prosperous for all.  

They have been taught that the fastest and simplest path to achieve their vision of the ideal society is through government. Pass mandates and provide money to solve the nation’s myriad problems.

Certainly, governments at all levels have important roles to play, but many people eventually reach the conclusion that answers to society’s problems must come mostly from the bottom up, from individuals, families, churches and voluntary associations, rather than from top-down government. At that point, many people become more conservative in their political leanings.  

They conclude that while government can do a lot of good things, it can’t deliver an ideal world. A better world has to come from individual responsibility, integrity, morality and family strength. It requires changed hearts, and government isn’t great at changing hearts.

I don’t blame young people from recoiling at Trump. As a human being, he’s quite disgusting, even if you like his policies. He’s everything good parents teach their children not to be.

Because of Utah’s dynamic economy, Americans have been relocating to the Beehive State for decades. In fact, last year, immigration numbers were larger than Utahns who arrived here by birth. Will such inflows impact political deliberations?

Pignanelli: For years, a handful of politicos have been predicting the continuing exodus of Californians and other Americans from their blue state origins will transform from red to purple Utah’s political hue. While such dynamics contributed to changes in Park City and Salt Lake City, only generations of continued massive growth from outsiders can make a serious dent in statewide elections. The more realistic — but unlikely — potential is if the Republican Party fails to heed changing internal demographics and Democrats respond accordingly.

Webb: Utah embodies a more practical, mainstream conservatism than the deep south, but isn’t in any danger of turning blue.

The bottom line. Will Utah County ever elect a Democrat or will Salt Lake City ever elect a Republican? 

Pignanelli: Not during the ever-decreasing lifespans of LaVarr and me.

Webb: Sometimes we talk about the nation’s political divide, in geographic terms, as the liberal coastal states vs. the fly-over, heartland states. But that’s not really accurate. The actual ideological divides, geographically, are between the big cities, the suburbs and the rural areas. Utah and Idaho are certainly heartland states, but Salt Lake City and Boise are about as liberal as any big city in the country. Thus, no danger of electing a Republican SLC mayor, or a Democratic Utah County commissioner.