If you like political chills and thrills, 2024 is for you

Jan 2

2024 is a presidential election year. What can we expect?

Pignanelli & Webb: “2024 is shaping up to be the most online election we’ve ever seen.” — By Kaleigh Rogers, FiveThirtyEight

Happy new year in just a few days! 2024 will be intense and dramatic for elections and politics. The stakes could hardly be higher. The future of our politically fractured country will be determined by the results of the presidential race and control of Congress. Political events and elections in Utah will also be important.

Here’s a look at 2024 political races, proceedings and questions we think will be important to watch and answer, from local politics to the highest levels of government.

The 2024 Utah political process

It starts earlier than ever in 2024, with the candidate filing period running Jan. 2-8. We will learn soon who’s running for what. For the first time in history, state legislators will know, for sure, who their opponents are before the beginning of the legislative session. Will that affect lawmakers’ deliberations? We’ll see.

Utah’s participation in the massive March 5 Super Tuesday primary/caucus presidential preference vote will be a big deal. Utah should get some presidential candidate attention in January and February. The Utah Republican Party decision to conduct its presidential preference vote through precinct caucuses, instead of a primary election, means far fewer people may decide Utah’s preferred GOP presidential candidate.

The 2024 legislative session

The governor and legislators seem focused on housing, homelessness, tax reduction, energy and water issues. Early preparation, especially infrastructure needs, for the 2034 Winter Games will be discussed. How will new, hard-charging House Speaker Mike Schultz impact the Legislature and its priorities? It will be fascinating to watch.

U.S. Senate and House races

When Sen. Mitt Romney announced his retirement, it appeared then-House Speaker Brad Wilson was the favorite to win the seat. But when Congressman John Curtis said he was thinking of joining the race, Wilson’s path to victory became much harder.

Both candidates will be well-funded and enjoy solid endorsements. How far to the right of Curtis will Wilson portray himself? Will these candidates — and especially their allied super PACs — resort to negative messaging? Will Donald Trump make an endorsement in the race? Curtis and Wilson are both very solid candidates. The debates will be good political theatre.

Meanwhile, a grundle (that’s a scientific political term) of candidates will seek to replace Curtis in the 3rd Congressional District, should Curtis run for the Senate. We will see recognizable politicos, along with new faces.

State races

With Attorney General Sean Reyes not seeking reelection, the open race to replace him will also attract several candidates. What will be the impact of a legislative audit of the attorney general’s office?

Gov. Spencer Cox should cruise to reelection. But it won’t be without a little pain, as he will be aggressively challenged from the far right.

Control of Congress

Nationally, control of Congress is as important as the presidential election. Much is at stake. Simple arithmetic (even your columnists can add and subtract), determines Republicans should take control of the Senate, based on the number of vulnerable seats in 2024. However, the Trump factor may come into play. If he endorses far-right candidates who win the primaries but can’t win the general election, Democrats may retain control.

The U.S. House status is unpredictable. Democrats have a real chance to take over, but the unpopular President Joe Biden could be a drag for Democratic candidates.

Presidential race

As we have written, we are both less than excited about the two front-runners for president. They’re old (even older than us!), they don’t think clearly, and they are out-of-touch with mainstream America. We can suggest a half-dozen better candidates in both parties.

Trump’s current polling lead over Biden is one of the most surprising things in politics for years. It shows the depth of dislike for Biden all across the country. But Trump is the most divisive top-level politician in America in generations. If he wins, and Democrats take over the House, Trump will say and do enough outrageous things he could be impeached every month. The presidential race promises to be ugly.

External factors and key issues

The economy will be a big factor in electoral politics. Biden currently gets the blame for inflation and the financial insecurity felt by many citizens. If the economy avoids recession and comes in for a soft landing, will Biden benefit?

Abortion is another issue that looms large and may benefit Democrats in close races. Also, how much turmoil will occur as the nation transitions to clean energy and grapples with the impact of artificial intelligence? What is the impact of the Biden impeachment action?

The southern border, with record numbers of illegal immigrants entering the country, will also be a big issue, along with foreign affairs. The world has become a scary place, with significant wars in two parts of the globe.

Locally, two important upcoming decisions by the Utah Supreme Court could impact legislative action and the election. The court is expected to rule on a restrictive state abortion law and on a challenge to the Legislature’s redistricting maps.

Buckle up for 2024. It’s going to be a wild ride.

Foxley & Pignanelli