Will Trump be convicted in 2024? Predictions for the 2024 political year
Will Mitt Romney join Joe Manchin on a No Labels presidential ticket? Will President Joe Biden be impeached?
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
We are frequently wrong, but seldom in doubt. Thus, we make bold, risky and wildly speculative predictions for the new year. Hang on to this column so you can cheer or laugh as we are shown to be seers or quacks.
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a crime and jailed in 2024?
Pignanelli: “I try not to get involved in the business of prediction. It’s a quick way to look like an idiot.” — Warren Ellis
The former president is vulnerable on the records charges, and will be found guilty for mishandling some documents. He will be admonished, but he will not serve any time. Also, all the trials on the criminal indictments will be postponed until after this election year. Trump will not be wearing orange jumpsuits in 2024.
Webb: Trump will be convicted on at least a few of the 91 felony charges against him across four cases. But delays and appeals will keep him out of jail. The convictions will not hurt him with his diehard supporters.
Will Utah’s GOP presidential preference vote in March caucus meetings give Trump an advantage?
Pignanelli: Yes. If Utah was conducting a preference ballot for all registered Republicans, Nikki Haley would garner a huge victory. The precinct caucus vote system will result in a much tighter contest between Haley and Trump, but she still wins.
Webb: Participation in the caucus meetings will be very low, compared to a normal primary election vote. With committed GOP activists making up the bulk of caucus attendees, Trump will have a big advantage and will win.
Will 2024 be a repeat of Trump versus Joe Biden? Who will win? If not Trump-Biden, who are the nominees and winner?
Pignanelli: The desire among Republicans to beat Biden will cause a deadlocked national Republican convention in July. After several ballots, Haley prevails. Tensions are eased within the GOP and Republicans eagerly unite behind their ticket. Because the economy is improving, Biden stays in the race and is nominated. Democrats lose enthusiasm. Haley wins both the popular and Electoral College vote.
Webb: Unfortunately, Trump and Biden will win their respective party nominations. The general election will be a stinky dumpster fire featuring old, unpopular, deeply flawed candidates. No one will be enthusiastic about the choices except party die-hards. Trump will eventually crawl out of the dumpster debris as the Electoral College winner.
Will Mitt Romney join Joe Manchin on a No Labels presidential ticket?
Pignanelli: No. But he plays a prominent adviser role and will be a public spokesperson for the cause if Trump and Biden are the nominees.
Webb: Romney will be greatly tempted to join a No Labels ticket, especially if it might reduce Trump’s chance of winning the nomination. But he will ultimately decide against running, concluding that No Labels might hurt Biden as much as Trump.
Pignanelli: The desire among Republicans to beat Biden will cause a deadlocked national Republican convention in July. After several ballots, Haley prevails. Tensions are eased within the GOP and Republicans eagerly unite behind their ticket. Because the economy is improving, Biden stays in the race and is nominated. Democrats lose enthusiasm. Haley wins both the popular and Electoral College vote.
Webb: Unfortunately, Trump and Biden will win their respective party nominations. The general election will be a stinky dumpster fire featuring old, unpopular, deeply flawed candidates. No one will be enthusiastic about the choices except party die-hards. Trump will eventually crawl out of the dumpster debris as the Electoral College winner.
Will Mitt Romney join Joe Manchin on a No Labels presidential ticket?
Pignanelli: No. But he plays a prominent adviser role and will be a public spokesperson for the cause if Trump and Biden are the nominees.
Webb: Romney will be greatly tempted to join a No Labels ticket, especially if it might reduce Trump’s chance of winning the nomination. But he will ultimately decide against running, concluding that No Labels might hurt Biden as much as Trump.
Will the contest for the U.S. Senate nomination in Utah be an ugly fight between local and national factions within the GOP?
Pignanelli: Contrary to current opinion, the fight for the U.S. Senate primary will be a well-funded cage match. Brad Wilson and John Curtis are wonderful individuals and extremely competent politicians but will face difficulty controlling the trajectory of this race. The hostile dynamics between different Republican factions in other parts of the country will foment a proxy battle in the state. Utahns will be frustrated with the bombardment from outside interests.
Webb: The Senate GOP primary race will get unpleasant, especially if Trump makes an endorsement in the race, likely favoring Brad Wilson over John Curtis. Nationally, the race may be perceived as the far right, represented by Wilson, against the more moderate Curtis.
Will Democrats or Republicans control the U.S. House after the November elections? The U.S. Senate?
Pignanelli: If Trump is the nominee, the House flips Democrat (barely) and the Senate goes Republican. If Haley is nominated, her coattails deliver the House and Senate a strong GOP majority.
Webb: Republicans win the Senate, unless Trump helps nominate too many far-right, unelectable candidates. Democrats narrowly take over the House, because the fractious Republicans can’t get anything done there. Divided government and more dysfunction and gridlock are assured after the election.
Will the Republican-controlled House impeach President Biden during this election year?
Pignanelli: The House impeaches Biden but the Senate acquits him.
Webb: The House will spend a lot of time investigating and pontificating, but cooler heads will eventually prevail and no impeachment vote will be taken.
Will the Republican nomination for Utah governor be competitive?
Pignanelli: Gov. Spencer Cox’s intraparty challengers will be vocal and aggressive throughout the convention and primary elections, providing a perception of competition. But the incumbent prevails overwhelmingly.
Webb: Arch-conservatives will make a lot of noise, but Cox is well-liked and will easily win reelection.[