Will pollsters ever get it right?
By Renae Cowley, Frank Pignanelli
Republican Renae Cowley is a political consultant, lobbyist, social media influencer and professional rodeo athlete. Frank Pignanelli is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser who served as a Democrat in the Utah State Legislature.
We offer prognostications for future campaigns in the aftermath of the most polled election in history.
How did the pollsters get their presidential predictions so wrong?
Cowley: Pollsters have a hard time pegging Donald Trump elections. It’s probably not just one thing but a perfect storm of unique, hard-to-measure factors that make predicting his elections so evasive. Trump supporters not answering polls presumably had a part to play.
One of the few sources to come close to predicting accurately was Polymarket, a betting website for politics, pop culture and more. This is far from scientifically significant, but supporters of the platform argue that because it involves hard-earned money, rather than talking to a stranger from a call center, it’s more accurate. If I were a betting woman, I’d guess a majority of Polymarket users are white, millennial, GameStop-investing men who, more often than not, lean Trump. Pollsters would call this a self-selecting sample, not to be relied on for scientific analysis. Regardless, I think Polymarket will become a mainstay in election discussions.
Pignanelli: “For too long, the polling industry has taken voters as they have found them rather than seeking to really understand how they think.” —Tom Lubbock and James Johnson, J.L. Partners
There are many examples of errant voter research. However, the best description of a flawed approach to surveys and campaign strategy is the Des Moines Register’s final poll, released days before the election, claiming Harris was three points ahead in Iowa. Trump received 56% and Harris almost 43%.
There were shockwaves in the political world when this poll was released because Selzer & Co. are so well-regarded. But as Lubbock and Johnson pointed out in the Wall Street Journal, survey callers mostly talked to liberal older white women on the phone for 20 minutes during the workday.
Lubbock and Johnson also document that online polls used by other firms analyzing the presidential contest provide skewed results because those respondents usually work from home. In other words, pollsters are not reaching people who do not trust polls or don’t have time to talk on the phone.
Surveying voters and consumers remains an essential element of our democracy and economy. Yet again, the professionals in this arena are reminded to adjust their approach to gather more realistic insights.
By the way, J.L. Partners predicted Trump would win both the electoral and popular vote.
Cowley: No candidate can replicate Trump’s decades of investment into building his brand. Trump honed and promoted his persona long before he ever ran for office through TV, media and pop culture. Kamala Harris was mostly MIA as VP and was only in the race for three months. All of King Midas’ gold could not make up that gap. Good, bad or indifferent, voters would rather have the devil they know.
I am fascinated by Team Trump’s big risk on ground game. They were short on funds and outsourced it completely to Turning Point USA and Elon Musk’s America PAC. Their gamble paid off. Perhaps this disruption in campaign norms will lead to other out-of-the-box, creative solutions from non-beltway sources.
Harris doubled down on the consultant class while earmarking several million to pay for celebrity appearances. We’ll get the final tally of exactly what she squandered her money on in the next FEC filing early December.
My takeaway is money can’t buy elections, but it can sure buy you a ton of annoying commercials during NFL games.
Pignanelli: This election shattered even the most traditional rules I thought inviolate in retail politics. Person-to-person ground games were fundamental tactics that usually guaranteed success in close races. However, the use of podcasts and other electronic versions was much more effective. Knocking on doors may still be critical in smaller contests, but national and statewide campaigns must adapt to the new dynamics.
Shrewd campaign operatives will begin to adopt these evolving tactics, especially in the primary elections. In the next several years, these methods of electronic outreach will be tailor-made for local citizens.
There was a red wave nationally. Did Utah see the same landslide victory for Republicans?
Cowley: Republicans up and down the ballot did extremely well and even improved their margins in numerous races, except for one: Trump. He received nearly the same percentage as in 2020.
Several Westside Salt Lake County Republicans won with landmark margins. Republican Jill Koford beat an incumbent Democrat in an Ogden-area swing seat, yet Trump had no electoral gains. Utah Republicans don’t like Trump’s bombastic demeanor and want a president that reflects their values of civility, decorum and compassion. Despite these reservations, his record in the White House and meager opponent earned him Utah’s electoral votes.
Pignanelli: Results in Utah were reasonably predictable. A bigger red wave would have occurred had there been a different GOP nominee or if Joe Biden was still at the top of the ticket. This is the third time that Utah voters accepted Trump’s policies despite other concerns. They have been ahead of the rest of the country for years.