The new year looks great for Utah ... and dismal for Washington

Both our state and national governments will welcome new executive leaders in January.

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Our country soon enters a post-Trump era with a new president and a closely divided Congress, while still struggling with a worldwide pandemic. Also, Utah has a new executive branch, starting Monday. That’s a lot to discuss.

Utah has supported President Donald Trump, although sometimes reluctantly. For better or worse, he has dominated politics in this country for four years. Will he continue to be a major factor in Utah and nationally, or gracefully fade away?

Pignanelli: “America’s greatness is neither defined nor created by any president. It is the result of actions by the American people” — Alan Fisher

It is revealing that our first column for this year — in an almost entirely digital newspaper — coincides with the commencement of a new political era. (We are more lucky than smart.)

100 years ago, millions of Americans succumbed to the raging and often lethal flu pandemic, while suffering through World War I. Many historians and sociologists believe what followed, “The Roaring 20s,” was a direct result of such challenges. That decade witnessed incredible economic achievement mirrored by advances in culture, education and technology (i.e. automobile, aviation, cinema, radio, etc.). Numerous cultural barriers were smashed in providing opportunities for women and minorities.

History does not repeat, but it does rhyme. So, the 2020s will experience major changes in how we work, live, recreate … and politic. Further, America continues to endure major political realignments. (Utah will play a role in these transformations.) If Trump and his followers understand this dynamic in their messaging and policies, they will remain a relevant force.

Of course, this exciting future will also dare the survival instincts of your columnists (aka “Those Dinosaurs”).

Webb: With vaccines reaching millions of people in the new year’s first quarter, I’m hopeful 2021 will be a terrific bounce-back year. However, if it is a great year, it will be despite the antics in Washington, not because of them.

The last weeks of Trump have been terribly embarrassing for those of us who have defended him over the years. Rather than go gracefully, he has thrown monkey wrenches into the gears of government, made outlandish demands, and acted like a child throwing a tantrum. He is soiling his own legacy.

Even after Joe Biden takes office, Trump isn’t likely to go away. If he would settle for a role as a senior statesman and encourage his loyal base to support next-generation Republican leaders, he could be a big asset for the party. Unfortunately, Trump is just as likely to be a big liability, sabotaging Republican chances to take control of Congress in 2022 and win the presidency in 2024.

Republicans can’t win with Trump dominating the party. But they also can’t win without his base.

With a new governor and a forward-looking Legislature, is Utah well-positioned for economic and social progress in 2021, despite what happens in Washington?

Pignanelli: Utah’s hard-working citizens and leaders deserve enormous credit for phenomenal growth in the last 20 years establishing a strong foundation. However, what worked in the past two decades will be increasingly nominalized in future decades of the 21st century. Gov. Spencer Cox, legislative leaders and the business community must embrace the coming transformations, be willing to make tough decisions and pivot while adapting to challenging but prosperous opportunities.

In other words, if Utahns behave as they normally do, our state is on track to be a global phenomenon.

What did politicians ask Santa Claus for Christmas this year?

SANTA WAS MASKED but, shame, shame, he didn’t practice social distancing when he allowed top politicians to climb on his lap to present their Christmas wish lists. Using a special CIA listening device, we discovered what politicians requested. Christmas is over, but we thought you’d be interested.

President Donald J. Trump: “First, I want irrefutable evidence of voter fraud. Second, I need at least 70 more electoral college votes. And, if the election is stolen, I demand an airtight legal memorandum stating that I can pardon myself.”

President-elect Joseph Biden:

“I want the right results in the Georgia Senate elections. Problem is, I’m not sure what is best ... empowering progressives or Republicans. Either one is trouble. Please pick my poison!”

Gov.-elect Spencer Cox: “ Santa, please deliver to my new Capitol office unlimited short data points and pithy info so I can run state government via Twitter. I promise to be nice and not naughty in all my tweets — unlike that other Twitter-happy guy.”

Lt. Gov.-elect Deidre Henderson:

“Wisdom to know when to give in, when to compromise, and when to threaten a veto as I monitor legislative activities and schmooze lawmakers to win support for our priorities.”

State Auditor John Dougall: “ Santa, thanks for the early Christmas gift of over 1 million votes in the recent election. This is the most votes any Utahn has ever received in the history of the state … but who’s counting?”

Unified COVID-19 Command leaders Jess Anderson (Public Safety Commissioner) and Richard Saunders (Health Director): “Please, please, send many more vaccination doses so we can avoid nasty battles over who gets vaccinated in what order.”

Attorney General Sean Reyes:

“Please make sure all those Utah Trump activists remember my unwavering support for the president as I consider future political activities.”

State Treasurer David Damschen:

“Big deal. You deliver presents one day a year. I spend the entire year giving back unclaimed property to Utahns who didn’t know they had lost it. Happy to give you pointers.”

Right-wing social conservatives:

“Please silence woke left-wing snowflakes who insist on political correctness like saying ‘Happy Holidays’ instead of ‘Merry Christmas.’” Left-wing progressives: “Please silence those right-wing Neanderthals who do not recognize that a number of cultures have celebrations this time of year.”

Senate President Stuart Adams and House Speaker Brad Wilson:

“Just one request: Mandatory stay-at-home quarantine orders on lobbyists during the legislative session.”

Sen. Mike Lee: “Please have Biden send ultra-liberal nominees for judicial positions. It will be so much fun provoking them in the hearings.”

Sen. Mitt Romney: “I need no presents. Trump leaving office makes a sweet Christmas.”

National and state Democratic Party leaders: “Please give us another polarizing figure to rally against. Without Trump we have lost our purpose and reason for existence.”

National and state Republican party leaders: “Please give us another polarizing figure to rally around.

Without Trump we have lost our purpose and reason for existence.”

Salt Lake City Mayor Erin Mendenhall: “In 2020, our beloved metropolis faced increased homelessness, riots, hurricane winds, state government encroachment, a health crisis and economic turmoil. Can we just be left alone next year?”

National news media: “Please keep Trump alive and his tweeting thumbs flexible. We need the incredible ratings and ad revenue he provides as we attack him.”

Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson: “An occasional reminder to the Utah establishment that I am the highest-ranking Utah Democrat would be nice.”

Soon-to-be ex-Gov. Gary Herbert:

“I’ve had a great run for many years and I’m not asking for much.

Just a life-size statue at the entrance to the Herbert Institute at Utah Valley University.”

Congressman Chris Stewart: “I just need two presents: First, sufficient Democratic progressive overreach that we win control of the House in 2022. Second, investigations into Democratic scandals equivalent to the time and money spent investigating false Trump campaign collusion with Russia.”

Congressman John Curtis: Apparently, I am going to be the mediator between conservatives and climate change activists to construct legislative solutions. So, I will need body armor.”

Congressman-elect Burgess Owens: “More of Nancy Pelosi. Every time I criticize her leftist tendencies on television, I raise extra money and support from social conservatives.”

Congressman-elect Blake Moore:

“Peace on earth, goodwill to all … and many opportunities to rip into China.”

Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce Derek Miller: “Santa, please give me a solution to the panhandling and homelessness plaguing businesses. Something that works well, but isn’t heartless. Pretty easy ask.”

Deseret News: “Patience from readers as we shift to a weekly print and daily online editions.

Also, points in heaven for keeping Pignanelli and Webb around.”

Frank Pignanelli: “A discovery by scientists that the best vaccination against the coronavirus is wine and marinara sauce.”

LaVarr Webb: “More time on the farm, please. I’d rather talk to cows and chickens than politicians.”

We wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Vaccination issues, slow political concessions and voting challenges round out 2020

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Merry Christmas to all our readers. We hope you have a safe and happy holiday.

Although our country suffers from too much partisan conflict, all 320 million Americans can agree on one thing: This has been one of the strangest and most difficult years in our lifetimes. 2020 is soon to (thankfully) expire, but some key issues remain, plenty for us to discuss.

We’re are grateful we can see a light at the end of the pandemic tunnel as vaccinations roll out over the next several months. This modern medical miracle is driving numerous discussions regarding vaccination priorities and mandates. What decisions will health officials and political leaders have to make to vaccinate as many Utahns as quickly as possible?

Pignanelli: “Vaccine policy is political by its very nature” — Rene Najera, doctor of public health

Sugary confections are unavoidable during the holidays, as are politics-smothered health policies — especially vaccinations. Human dynamics dominated inoculation procedures for generations, and are on hyperdrive in response to the coronavirus.

The potential for arguments are endless. First, Americans and Utahns are not New Zealanders or Scandinavians. We are suspicious of authority and a government mandate to vaccinate will be overwhelmingly resisted just on principle alone. But studies reveal voluntary participation would be greatly enhanced through endorsements of recognized leaders in the health, entertainment, corporate and political (if bipartisan) arenas. Allowing businesses to require vaccinated employees may help but also breeds issues.

Determining the priority of recipients is a recipe for intense bickering, yet an opportunity for statesmanship. When left-wing progressives attacked Utah officials for an alleged elitist approach, Democrat and Republican lawmakers defended the current transparent process. Such mature bipartisanship was warmly received.

This welcome recent development may be a harbinger of 2021. As with many aspects of society (economic development, technology, lifestyles, etc.) Utah will again have to shoulder the burden of being an example to the nation. An application of our always successful “Utah Way” to vaccinations will not only deliver a healthy population but enlightenment to the rest of the country.

This promises a nice sugar high of politics.

Webb: All involved in Project Warp Speed, including the much-vilified Donald Trump, deserve credit for the amazingly rapid development and deployment of effective vaccines that promise to end this scourge. It has been devastating both medically and economically.

Utah and national leaders are implementing an excellent logistics and prioritization system to get the vaccines first to those who need it most. As always, there will be grumbling, but we ought to trust our leaders.

We will now have a great debate over vaccination mandates and private-sector requirements. I would strongly oppose any government vaccination mandates. But can airlines, restaurants, retail stores, etc., require proof of vaccination for service? What about incentives to encourage vaccination? And what will constitute proof? A card? A mobile app? A tattoo on the forehead? It’s going to be a heated discussion.

Many Republicans were slow to concede that President-elect Joseph Biden won the election. Some pundits are predicting this deference to Trump will hurt GOP reputations for years to come. Is this true?

Pignanelli: Regardless of ideology, political commentators cannot avoid the temptation of ignoring history and predicting dire consequences. Therefore, they are usually wrong. Modern society moves fast and memories fade. Twenty years ago, pundits predicted high profile Democrats who refused to publicly distance themselves from a president disgraced for his extramarital conduct and selling pardons would face recriminations. Still waiting.

Webb: Throughout Trump’s presidency, there has been much handwringing and histrionics among those who hate him, they say he was destroying democracy, destroying the environment, selling out America to Russia, bringing the country to the brink of war, and on and on. Most of these accusations were vastly overwrought and have become monotonous and ridiculous.

Trump should have conceded long ago, but America is not being torn apart.

Trump helped Republicans, but couldn’t save himself

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Important traditions are observed in December by millions of Americans. For the truly strange (aka us political hacks) it is a tradition for experts and pundits to analyze elections now that more of the data is in and the dust has settled. Books are already being written about what happened in November 2020. So, we feel duty-bound to offer our perspectives.

Serious publications are attempting to explain why President-elect Joseph Biden performed so well but Democrats were otherwise disappointed in national and state races. Some suggest a shift in demographics benefiting Republicans. Congressman Ben McAdams is warning Democrats against a leftward shift, suggesting this as a cause for his defeat. What trends seem real and what does this hold for Utah?

Pignanelli: “It is counterintuitive, but one way to think about the mixed results of the 2020 election is Trump may have lost, but Trumpism won.” — Matt Sandgren, Hatch Foundation

Explaining the mysteries of how Santa Claus performs his famous duties is an easier task than rationalizing voters’ intentions this year. Fortunately, political elves are helping.

The perfect poll of voters’ preferences is actual election results. The 2020 historical turnout demonstrated the referendum on President Donald Trump was not indicative of support for leftist policies. Biden won many districts lost by down-ballot Democrats.

Deseret News editorial intern Brian Ericson was among the first in the country to discern most of the 10 Democratic U.S. House seats flipped were by a Republican “woman and/or person of color.” This unexpected and significant development will impact campaign tactics for generations. Furthermore, these aspiring conservative politicians are hankering to publicly confront the “The Squad” (the famous club of liberal congressional females headed by the media-savvy Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez). The 2021 session of Congress promises entertainment.

The election also emphasized the seemingly irrevocable trend of working-class families shifting long-term loyalty from Democrat to Republican because of the attention fostered upon them, and their specific concerns, by Trump.

These observations suggest future obstacles for Utah Democrats and potential internal struggles within the Utah GOP. Hopefully, Santa delivers crystal balls to help.

Webb: First, the 2020 election confirms that America is a center-right nation and most voters don’t want a shift to the left. Second, the presidential election was all about Trump and his incredible power to get people to vote — both for him and against him. It was a rejection of Trump personally, but not so much his policies or the generally conservative direction he was taking the country.

Third, Trump couldn’t save himself, but he saved a lot of Republican seats. The enormous Republican and conservative turnout he provoked knocked a lot of Democrats (among them McAdams) out of office. While many moderate and mainstream Republicans couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Trump because of his personality and character flaws, they did vote for other Republicans lower on the ballot.

While Trump was good for Republicans in the 2020 election, he could hurt the party’s candidates in 2022 and 2024 if he demands total loyalty and turns against Republicans who aren’t among his zealous supporters.

If Trump so chooses, he will loom large in Republican politics at least through 2024 and he may well split the party and give Democrats an advantage. Trump is a once-in-a-century political disruptor, the most polarizing politician in our lifetimes.

Are there lessons and warnings for Utah Republicans and Democrats? Will they be heeded?

Pignanelli: Local Democrats’ ability to protect legislative incumbents — while coming close in several other races — indicates demographic and policy shifts among voters. This is especially evident along the east bench of Salt Lake County. Smart Republicans will increase embracing issues once the province of Democrats, including clean air, health care, growth concerns, etc.

The GOP stranglehold on federal and statewide offices continues until Democrats implement major distance from the national party. Key populist elements of Trumpism (restoring manufacturing, fair trade, constraining China, etc.) are accessible to both parties and could be valuable tools in future campaigns.

Webb: A key lesson for Utah Republicans is that for 2022 and possibly 2024, Trump will still be a factor and they must walk the tight rope of mainstream governance while not offending the Trump base, which remains a significant voting bloc.

Political turmoil is high. Is there an opportunity for a third party?

Pignanelli: Most politicos laugh at such questions. This dismissiveness is employed because an alternative party replacing a faltering faction only occurs in times of intense partisanship, changing demographics and economic volatility … hmmm.

Webb: In the post-Trump era, a centrist third party like the United Utah Party will be irrelevant because Trump will be gone. However, it’s possible the Trump base could split off and try to form a party. It won’t win elections, but could be a spoiler. Activists will have more influence within one of the national parties.

Is the Electoral College an archaic relic, or crucial for our federalist system?

A look at what the Electoral College means for Utah

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb, Contributors

A week from Monday, on Dec. 14, Utah’s designated electors will meet at the state Capitol to cast their ballots for president and vice president. Electors in 49 other states will do likewise, and determine the next president of the United States.

This ritual is often routine but becomes more controversial when one candidate wins the popular vote and the opponent wins the Electoral College vote. This year, Joe Biden is the apparent winner of both, so there will be less angst. We examine the implications of this constitutional institution and the election on Utah politics.

Once again, politicos are discussing whether the Electoral College should be preserved, modified or eliminated. Does Utah have anything at stake in this debate?

Pignanelli: ”The Electoral College is a political wisdom tooth — a historical relic that stays largely out of sight yet causes no small pain when it pops up.” — Matthew Daneman

Like the recent Utah-USC football game, the Electoral College proves the law of unintended consequences. The institution has evolved beyond recognition from the founders’ original intent of a group of select citizens deliberating in a thoughtful process — as described by Alexander Hamilton in “Federalist No. 68.” The existing “winner-takes-all” method is warping presidential elections as campaigns spend billions targeted on a few battleground states. But status quo advocates contend a national presidential election is fraught with danger. A compromise is in order.

Maine and Nebraska provide two electors for the statewide winner, and the remaining vote based on results in each congressional district. Because this substantially resolves current disadvantages, some politicos are advocating for a countrywide adoption. Electoralvotemap.com applied this system to contests since 2000 and concluded margins would have varied but with the similar ultimate results … except Mitt Romney was elected in 2012 and possibly finishing a second term this year.

Utah is among several states with minimal voting power in national elections. The Maine/Nebraska modification protects any small state advantage while forcing candidates to moderate and focus attention on regions currently ignored.

Politics and football demonstrate on a daily basis that plans are usually thwarted and modifications required.

Webb: We are a nation of states, not just a population mass. States created the federal government and have important rights under the Constitution. The founders instituted the Electoral College to help ensure that all states have meaningful roles in the federal system, including small states like Utah.

If presidential elections were decided by the popular vote, candidates would mostly campaign where the votes are — in the big cities and on the coasts. Instead of campaigning state-by-state, addressing the priorities and needs of individual states, campaign strategists would divide the masses into demographic and interest groups and would campaign to those groups with targeted messages. Democrats would spend immense amounts of money running up big vote totals in New York and California. You wouldn’t have candidates spending much time and money in small swing states like Nevada and New Mexico.

The Electoral College forces candidates to be aware of the priorities and needs of states, not just large demographic groups. If we care about states, if we care about federalism, we must preserve the Electoral College.

President Donald Trump and his legal team are working feverishly to change the predicted election outcome when electors gather in eight days. Will he be successful, and how does this pursuit play in Utah?

Pignanelli: Both sides are declaring the republic is in jeopardy either because of voter fraud or attacks on the election process. This is nonsense. Americans and Utahns turned out in record numbers to vote. The courts and the Department of Justice are hearing, then rejecting, unproven allegations of misconduct. Utahns moved on because the system is working.

Webb: Biden will win, but Trump has every right to pursue administrative and legal recourse to be certain the election was conducted properly. But it should be done with dignity and a willingness to concede gracefully when remedies are exhausted. Trump’s over-the-top rhetoric about the election being fraudulent and stolen goes too far. He is making it hard even for his strong supporters to hang with him.

How did President-elect Joseph Biden win the most votes in presidential election history, yet have such short coattails in down-ballot races?

Pignanelli: Trump’s campaign advisers tried hard to paint the election as a choice between a successful president and a compromise candidate beholden to left-wing interests. But many voters turned out to reject the incumbent’s style and not for the challenger. Thus, the unexpected results in congressional elections.

Webb: Hardcore Trump supporters are citing the coattails issue and other turnout statistics as evidence that Trump couldn’t have lost the election. But the reality is simple: Millions more voters than usual voted for Trump. But even more millions than usual voted against him.

The election was more of a personal repudiation of Trump, and was not a rejection of other Republicans, conservatism or even Trump’s policies. Voters were happy to support Republicans and conservative principles up and down the ballot. But while a lot of voters loved Trump, even more hated him.

Political types of all stripes have a lot to be thankful for this year

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

This Thanksgiving was very different from the traditional big gatherings most of us are used to. Meanwhile, those involved in politics expressed appreciation for a variety of blessings last Thursday. Without revealing our sources (i.e. Russian intelligence, Chinese hackers, North Korean wiretapping, etc.) we hereby outline what we learned about secret expressions of gratitude by Utahns and their leaders.

Every man, woman, child, pet (and even house plant) in Utah: We are extremely grateful to no longer be bombarded with the endless negative commercials from the Owens and McAdams campaigns. After months of that nonsense, the silly ad with the bears and toilet paper is now comforting to watch.

National pollsters, pundits, campaign experts, political wisemen: We are grateful for the insecurity that politicians, campaign managers, and the news media feel. It means they will continue to hire us for polling, focus groups, message testing, etc. even though we got it completely wrong — AGAIN!

Twitter executives: The Twitterer-In-Chief may be out of office, but his thumbs still work. So, the tweet blizzards will continue. We are thankful for such a healthy democracy … and the ad revenue.

Right-wing activist groups: We are thankful liberal Democrats will be occupying the executive branch. We can scream at them … which helps our fundraising and membership recruitment activities.

Gov. Gary Herbert: Leading Utah through a major crisis wasn’t how I expected to end my nearly 12 years in office, but I’m grateful to have the confidence of Utahns — and my approval ratings have held strong!

Left-wing activist groups: A Democrat will be in the White House, but we can still scare our members with threats of an ignored progressive agenda. We are grateful for opportunities to further squeeze our supporters for contributions.

Former President George W. Bush: I’m amazed that all these liberals who hated me are now proclaiming me as a great statesman, all because we had a smooth transition to President Obama — doing what every other administration before mine did. I am thankful for the amusement of changed perspectives.

The news media: Of course, we abhor the intensely partisan nature of politics … and hope it continues. This last election broke all records for advertising spending. Our profits are not “fake news.”

U.S. Sen. Mike Lee: I am grateful that the GOP will maintain the Senate majority. I can lecture the Biden administration on constitutional principles when they seek approval of their appointments … and they will have no choice but to listen.

U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney: I am grateful to be the junior senator from Utah … and in the catbird seat. I can follow my “Inner Mitt” and say anything I want about anyone or anything because both the Biden administration and the Senate majority need my vote.

Gov.-elect Spencer Cox: After spending hours with legislators chewing on me over the state’s pandemic response, I’m grateful for the good sense to have picked former state Sen. Deidre Henderson as my running mate. She gets to deal with them from now on!

Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson: Although Democrats suffered some losses, I am grateful to be reelected. I’m especially appreciative to have received 273,746 votes, making me the leading Democratic vote-getter in the state. Just sayin’ …

Congressman-elect Burgess Owens: I thank all my supporters. But we could have not succeeded without the competency of the Utah County Clerk who reestablished sanity in the voting process. So, a special Thanksgiving blessing to Amelia Powers Gardner.

Congressman-elect Blake Moore: It doesn’t happen often, but I am thankful that nice guys can actually win.

Congressman John Curtis: The presidential election provides great opportunities. I can push back on the Biden administration if they try to expand Bears Ears, but they will have to reach out to me to do anything feasible on climate change. I’m thankful for the leverage.

Congressman Chris Stewart: I’m interested to learn what bogeymen the House Democrats will investigate next year. I am grateful for their antics as they make it easy for me to seem reasonable.

National Republicans: We did lose the presidency, but otherwise are enjoying a cornucopia of blessings. Thanks to all who screamed, “defund the police”, “pack the court” and other inflammatory demands. Of course, a special shout out to “The Squad.” Without you, we could not have increased our House numbers and maintained control of legislatures that will redraw district boundaries to guarantee success in 2022. What a blessed year.

National Democrats: Uh, yes, we underperformed in congressional and Senate elections. But we won the White House. Even better, Trump will be running a shadow campaign which gives us all sorts of fundraising and voter registration advantages. A fruitful year, indeed.

Senate Pres. Stuart Adams and House Speaker Brad Wilson: The presidential and other federal elections were so acrimonious and unsettling that state government and legislative campaigns seemed positively boring. Our supermajorities continue, and we look forward to a great year.

LaVarr and Frank are always grateful that we have a few more readers than just Frank’s mother. And we thank all those politicians who generate enough news and controversy to keep us well supplied with material.

A fun blast from the past...

https://www.utahpoliticohub.com/top-three-lobbyists-in-utah-poll-results/

The results are in for  our 100% unscientific, but fully “official” Utah Politico Hub poll on Utah’s top lobbyist.

If we can learn nothing from what an non-scientific, non-statistically relevent, online poll, it’s that our readers believe that the best lobbyists in Utah are come in twos.

And the top three lobbyists are:

1. Doug Foxley and Frank Pignanelli: Not only do Doug and Frank get our official nod as Utah’s top lobbyists, but they get a nod for their willingness to poke fun at themselves as well.