NEWS & EVENTS
Utah campaigns are sprinting toward conventions and primaries
Here’s what might happen in important races
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
In about three weeks, local Republicans and Democrats will hold their state conventions to nominate federal and statewide candidates for the June 25 primary election. Of course, this has political tongues wagging. We impart what we are hearing regarding the U.S. Senate and congressional races.
The GOP contest to replace retiring Sen. Mitt Romney is becoming heated, as predicted. National political action committees and high-profile conservatives are promoting their favorites, while candidates are crisscrossing the state appealing to GOP activists and voters. Republican convention delegates will choose among Congressman John Curtis, former Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson, attorney Brent Hatch, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, businessmen Jason Walton and Chandler Tanner, communications consultant Carolyn Phippen, accountant Josh Randall, and others. Democrats will select from environmental activist Caroline Gleich, equipment operator Archie Williams and biologist Laird Fetzer Hamblin. There has not been a public poll since January, so is there any “conventional wisdom” about this contest?
Pignanelli: “So two cheers for democracy: one because it admits variety and two because it permits criticism.” — E. M. Forster. I am always amused when activists from both parties declare democracy is on the verge of extinction. The vigorous contesting in this election season again documents our republic is strong.
urtis, Wilson and Walton will likely be on the June 25 primary ballot through signatures (the other “declared” candidates have not submitted anything to date). This week, Curtis still leads the pack of contenders. But will his other competitors top the list from convention delegates? Staggs is benefiting from the endorsements provided by famous acolytes of former President Donald Trump. Hatch surprised everyone with a strong showing in the polls, and the recent infusion of resources from conservative PACs is impressing activists.
Trump’s victory in the presidential preference poll suggests a strong right tilt among delegates, which favors a Staggs and/or Hatch (or another ultra conservative) for a nod to the primary ballot.
The energetic, charismatic Gleich seems to enjoy the momentum among Democrats and may possibly avoid a primary.
Despite the gloomy warnings, democracy is very much alive.
Webb: With so many solid, credible candidates, the GOP Senate nomination race is very difficult to predict. Each candidate is seeking a “lane” to a primary election win. It’s likely two candidates will emerge from the state convention and will claim the party’s imprimatur. However, the convention favorite has often lost in the primary election when all Republicans get to vote, not just delegates.
A number of candidates will gather signatures to get on the ballot, so primary voters will have a number of choices. It’s entirely possible the primary victor will not win a majority of votes.
Curtis, as an incumbent congressman, is the best known candidate and is strong among mainstream Republicans. Hatch, the son of former Sen. Orrin Hatch, has ready-made name ID. Staggs is clearly trying to define himself as the “ultra-MAGA” Trumpian candidate with endorsements from an assortment of far-right politicians, some of whom are election deniers and obstructionists.
Wilson got a head start, has raised a lot of money, has solid endorsements and has been hitting the airwaves. Outside PACs are weighing in with TV spots.
It will really come down to hard work and smart strategy. The candidate who has the best ground game, who personally contacts the most voters, who has a superior get-out-the-vote effort, will win. An upset is certainly possible.
The 3rd Congressional District vacancy left by Curtis’ departure has prompted another heated battle. State Sen. Mike Kennedy, State Auditor John Dougall, businessman Case Lawrence, attorney Stewart Peay, veteran Lucky Bovo, Vernal Mayor JR Bird and party activist Kathryn Dahlin will be vying for delegate support. What is the scuttlebutt on this one?
Pignanelli: Lawrence has qualified for the primary through signatures, as may Dougall and Bird. Kennedy won the convention in the 2018 senate contest and could repeat this achievement six years later. Dougall is popular with delegates and could also receive the nod. This creates a tight avenue for the other candidates, but anything is possible.
Webb: With a “frugal” reputation, and having already won statewide office, Dougall has to be considered the favorite. But a number of attractive candidates are in the race. Who’s gonna work the hardest?
Will Utah’s remaining congressional incumbents (Blake Moore, Celeste Maloy, Burgess Owens) face strong challenges in the convention?
Pignanelli: Moore has qualified for the primary ballot through signatures. Will delegates acknowledge his growing prominence in Congress and not push him into a primary? Owens does not have a Republican opponent this year. Maloy is fresh from her special election victory in November but is wisely not discounting a challenge from military veteran and inspirational speaker Colby Jenkins.
Webb: Despite some interesting races, all three incumbents should be OK if they work extremely hard and don’t take anything for granted.
Do Utah lawmakers pass too many bills?
In Utah, 104 part-time Utah legislators, with less than 100 staff, pass an average of 500 bills in 45 days
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
The 2024 legislative session adjourned a month ago. But the results and even the process continue to be scrutinized and debated. This is another indication of the tremendous impact our part-time lawmakers have on government, politics and our culture. So, we can’t resist commenting.
An enduring criticism of the Utah legislative process is the rising amount of legislation considered each year. Gov. Spencer Cox, in a letter accompanying notice of his seven vetoes, expressed concern about the record number of bills passed this year (591, plus many resolutions). Cox said some of the legislation, including the items he rejected, could have been handled through simpler means — sometimes by just sending an email or making a phone call to the executive branch. This is not a new concern, as there has been a 60% increase in bills passed in the last 20 years. Is this a real problem that threatens quality of our lawmaking process?
Pignanelli: “The world is not going to be saved by legislation.” — William Howard Taft
Political observations can be a kaleidoscope — a small twist and a different outlook appears. The U.S. Congress employs thousands to help 535 full-time lawmakers pass a yearly average of 300 bills (only 42 in 2023). 104 part-time Utah legislators, with less than 100 staff, pass an average of 500 bills in 45 days. Indeed, while deliberating a thousand legislative proposals, lawmakers handle tough issues with public input and balance the budget. The national legislature is appropriately criticized as dysfunctional while our local solons are amazingly efficient.
Yet, increasing legislative loads will eventually cause less deliberation. The solution is unclear. Limiting bill files will not reduce policy concerns. Legislators will just combine issues into giant omnibus bills (like Congress), thereby creating complexity for citizens. This also constrains the voice of constituents.
Decades ago, this newspaper conducted an annual analysis of legislators’ effectiveness based upon bill passage percentages. Opponents often utilized low rankings in campaigns against incumbents. This was an active external pressure.
The best answer is legislative leadership encouraging caucuses to prioritize what is important and urgent. Many concerns are often resolved over time and (as the governor observed) usually with a phone call. Only a slight kaleidoscope twist is needed.
Webb: Big picture, Utah’s Legislature does a great job. We need to remember that many bills are minor technical corrections. Some bills repeal old laws. The important bills usually receive plenty of scrutiny. Utah’s 104 lawmakers each receive many requests to sponsor bills and be responsive to constituents.
This is not yet a big problem. The Utah legislative process is 1,000 times more effective than what happens in the federal Congress. In Washington, many of the lengthiest (thousands of pages) and most important bills, including budget bills, are held back with only a handful of people working on them, and then hit the floor and must be passed very quickly. That’s a terrible way to make laws impacting the entire country.
In Utah, all legislators serve on an appropriations subcommittee. All budgets are scrutinized and considered over several weeks. Budgets are balanced. Debt is very low.
Congress has many failures. But perhaps the biggest one is that, while it doesn’t pass many laws itself, it allows presidential executive orders and federal agencies to, in effect, make thousands of laws that impact our daily lives. Congress didn’t pass bills shutting down coal plants or eliminating gas-powered vehicles over the next several years. But the president and his federal agencies are doing those things in the absence of congressional oversight and action. Congress may not get anything done, but unelected bureaucrats in federal agencies are very, very busy!
Thankfully, Utah’s Legislature effectively keep watch over state agency regulatory authority.
Which leads me to my usual conclusion: We desperately need more of the government decisions that impact our lives to be made at state and local levels instead of at the badly broken federal level.
As our state continues to grow and thrive, does the current structure of a part-time legislature, with a constitutionally-mandated 45-day session, need to be adjusted?
Pignanelli: A part time status keeps lawmakers connected to their constituents and in-tune with state needs. But interim committee hearings should be revamped to further help with the massive load on the General Session.
Webb: We should never lose our lay Legislature. Forty-five days is very short, but it’s working well for now.
The Utah Legislature is consistently criticized by right- and left-wing special interest groups, the media, average citizens and others. Are the multitude of complaints justified or are lawmakers just a misunderstood lot?
Pignanelli: All 104 lawmakers serve for the right reason — they care about their communities. Bills that garner negative attention are often defeated or significantly amended. The state is succeeding because of longtime commitment by legislators to competent governance. Many commentators often ignore these elements.
Webb: In every session, any sentient person can find something to disagree with — me included. Even legislators themselves don’t like all the legislative results. That’s the way a representative democracy works. Utah’s Legislature is unapologetically conservative. Speaking as a mainstream Utah conservative myself, that’s good.
Flawed or not, Biden or Trump almost certain to be next president
For the first time since 1892, we have major party presidential candidates who both served as president prior to the election
Readers can expect to be inundated by the media over the next eight months with some version of the following: “For the first time since 1892, we have major party presidential candidates who both served as president prior to the election.” So we are getting a head start with what this means for Utah politics.
A national Deseret News/HarrisX poll revealed that 38% of Republican voters believe Donald Trump reflects their moral values “a great deal” and 41% said “some extent.” It was almost a mirror image for Democratic voters and their opinion of Joe Biden reflecting their values (43%/41%). What do Utahns think?
Pignanelli: “People see Trump draining the swamp, bucking the system. That is what is winning voters.” — Yemi Arunsi, Davis County Republican Party, Hinckley Report
Voting for president this year will be a hard swallow for most Utahns, regardless of political affiliation. We maintain a deep commitment to personal ethics and character. We expect it of ourselves and especially elected officials. This is a substantial reason Trump performed the lowest in Utah among the Super Tuesday states. Biden — no citadel of virtue — would have faced similar challenges if actual competition existed.
We all have that zany friend or relative who says what they are thinking, even when not socially appropriate. While publicly horrified, we may agree with some outbursts and enjoy unfiltered honesty. This explains the poll results.
In polite conversations, many express concerns with Trump’s statements. But in an anonymous survey, Republicans struggle to deny his bold stances — tough on China, building the wall, “draining the swamp,” etc. Biden supporters might be embarrassed by his plentiful gaffes yet appreciate stands on student loan debt and social causes.
With these presumptive nominees, Republicans and Democrats are overlooking (while gulping) character flaws of their candidate to achieve desired policy outcomes.
Webb: My own moral and political values, and many of my public policy priorities, are generally not reflected in either Biden or Trump. I’ve basically given up on this presidential race and on the federal government, overall, to solve America’s most pressing problems.
Political stalemate is going to continue and, worse, big government is going to get bigger under either president; federal deficit spending is going to expand; the serious risk to Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare and federal highway funding, among other things, will grow over the next decade as the federal debt bomb nears the point of explosion.
Skyrocketing federal debt is identified by many of the nation’s best policy analysts as the country’s greatest threat. Neither Biden nor Trump show any inclination to deal with it.
Therefore, as Utah policymakers attempt to ensure that future generations enjoy stability, progress and great quality of life, they must plan for the day when a broke and broken federal government cannot pay its bills and investors refuse to buy its debt. Among the first expenses to be cut will be federal money passed through to the states.
Utah is good at planning ahead. But Utah leaders cannot say they are prepared for the future until the state has a real plan to deal with a federal government that, in the next several years, will renege on many of its current commitments.
I have long been a proponent of balanced federalism. Federal bankruptcy is going to force a painful rebalancing in the federal system. Let’s get ready for it.
The same poll also showed that 63% of voters “have doubts about Biden’s mental fitness,” while 51% share the same doubts about Trump. Utah has one of the lowest rates of dementia in the country, so how does this concern impact local deliberations?
Pignanelli: Utah’s leaders reflect the youngest state in the nation (median age of 30.7). Gov. Spencer Cox is 48, Congressman Blake Moore is 43, first-term Speaker Mike Schultz is 48. Utah voters favor those less long in the tooth. Sen. Mitt Romney mirrored what most Utahns are thinking when he encouraged Biden and Trump to step aside and let the next generation lead. This emotion may cause small movements toward viable alternative presidential candidates.
Webb: Whether lucid or confused, Biden wants bigger government, more spending and higher taxes. Trump is too tempestuous and undisciplined for anyone to predict the nature of his presidency — other than that, it will be chaotic.
Turnout for the 2024 GOP precinct caucuses was abysmally low. Some pundits are predicting problems for local Republicans as a result. Is this a valid conjecture?
Pignanelli: The caucus/convention system requires attendance on a weeknight and on Saturdays, but very few races are determined by the outcome. So, participation will continue to drop while primaries — elections of consequence in our deeply red state — will remain popular. Unless changes are made, the party structure but not candidates will suffer.
Webb: The Utah GOP will be just fine and will dominate Utah politics this year and into the future as long as the party and its policymakers are not captured by the extremes of the party.
The tragedy of Utah’s caucus night
Less than 10% of registered Republicans participated on caucus night
With the Legislature in the rear-view mirror, Utah’s political community turned to political party caucuses and presidential politics last week. As your lovable (in a grandfatherly sort of way) commentators, we weigh in on the consequences to our state.
March 5 was Super Tuesday for Republican and Democratic presidential preferences in 16 states, including Utah. Local Democrats chose traditional primary balloting, while the Utah GOP restricted presidential voting to caucus attendees and ballots delivered to caucuses. As expected, Donald Trump prevailed over Nikki Haley. Utah caucusgoers also selected delegates to county and state conventions. How does this process and result impact local politics?
Pignanelli: “Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change.” — Stephen Hawking
For much of the 20th century, precinct caucuses (my generation knew them as mass meetings) were quaint, neighborhood gatherings where the parties’ faithful members thoughtfully selected delegates who determined nominees for various offices at the conventions. But lifestyles eventually changed, which caused attendance to drop. The meetings are now in larger venues, and the once heartwarming dynamics are rare. Current support of the delegate/convention system ignores this reality.
In the 2016 caucuses, 177,204 Republicans cast a ballot, a sharp decrease from the 2012 presidential preference poll, in which 241,000 participated in a traditional primary format. Trump was unopposed in the 2020 pandemic primary and yet a record 344,852 returned their mail ballots. Last week, only 84,942 (less than 10% of registered Republicans) bothered to attend caucus meetings.
Furthermore, Utah received negative national attention for glitches in caucuses and was the last state to report — even after Alaska. Trying to overlay modern technology on an outdated system breeds problems.
Many pundits across the country thought Haley could prevail in Utah. She performed well but her inability to capture a majority here prompted departure from the race. Prominent Utahns who supported Haley will now readjust their public relationship with the nominee.
Both the selection of Trump and declining popularity of the precinct caucuses were predictable outcomes, and the latter result will be an ongoing problem if ignored.
Webb: The GOP caucuses were chaotic for many attendees. But the real tragedy of the caucus night wasn’t just the confusion (even though my wife and I drove 80 miles to our caucus location, only to be told we were in the wrong place). The real tragedy was that the presidential preference results did not reflect the views of Republican voters across the state.
Women, young people, minorities and moderate Republicans were vastly underrepresented in caucus meetings and will be nearly absent in ensuing GOP conventions. There are nearly 900,000 active, registered Republicans in Utah. Some 84,000 Republicans voted in party caucuses. So the voices of only 9% of Utah Republicans were heard in the race for the GOP presidential nomination.
Caucuses are great for old, white males like me, and for those activists who love politics. But they don’t represent more moderate, casual Republicans. I believe Nikki Haley would have defeated Trump, or come very close, had a regular primary election with mail-in ballots been held.
President Joseph Biden delivered a much-reviewed State of the Union address last Thursday. Was the speech successful as Democrats claim or overly partisan as claimed by Republicans?
Pignanelli: While watching the speech, I was tempted to contact my doctor to request the prescription of whatever Biden had consumed since it boosted energy, concentration and articulate discourse. Biden had no choice but to blast away because anything with less enthusiasm would be criticized as his typical low-energy, confusing ramble. He motivated the base but will have to tone down some rhetoric to capture independents and moderate Republicans — just as Trump must.
Webb: If Biden’s main goal was shoring up his progressive base, it was an effective speech. He didn’t appear as feeble and confused as I’ve sometimes described him. I actually liked the first few minutes when he made a strong case in support of Ukraine and defended a robust foreign policy.
But then the speech deteriorated into a lengthy laundry list of left-wing, big government, incredibly expensive programs that will raise taxes, run up the national debt, make citizens more dependent on the federal government and intrude in the lives of all Americans.
Biden’s speech did little to win over voters beyond his base. It won’t save his presidency.
Alabama Sen. Katie Britt delivered the GOP State of the Union response. Was it effective?
Pignanelli: Responses from the loyal opposition are usually ignored unless the media obsesses over any mistakes. The setting for Britt’s speech (the kitchen background was criticized as patronizing) and factual errors may have diminished any immediate benefit but there is no long-term harm otherwise.
Webb: It was weird. I like Katie Britt a lot. She is a talented young politician with a bright political future. She was trying to speak from the heart, but her facial expressions and emotion were over the top. The overwrought discussion at the kitchen table didn’t work real great.
Answers to all your burning legislative questions
Congress would take about 15 years to accomplish what our state lawmakers did in less than 2 months.
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
The Utah 2024 legislature adjourned a week ago, but observers are still calculating the impact. We illuminate some of the political deliberations by using a “reverse Jeopardy!” format — ask questions inquiring minds want to know and provide answers (or at least what we think they should be). So here it is (with apologies to Ken Jennings).
Did legislators do anything worthwhile? Yep. 3.3 million Utahns can find something to despise or admire about what legislators did — or didn’t do — over 45 days. Which means they did a lot, including tax reductions, important policies on energy and water, and new programs for housing and homelessness. They tackled social media problems, boosted funding for education and myriad other things. Congress would take about 15 years to accomplish what our state lawmakers did in less than two months.
Did the Legislature break the 2023 record for passing bills? Yes. The Legislature passed 591 bills — an all-time record. Is that good or bad? You decide. Some 942 bills and resolutions were introduced. (Frank, who reviewed each one, still has eyestrain.)
How many bills will Gov. Spencer Cox veto? Zero. Although he may grumble about some. He did help mold a lot of legislation.
Are they superhuman? Probably. Legislative staff endured extraordinary conditions, drafted nearly a thousand bills, staffed committees and kept the Legislature humming.
Why all the talk about rooftops? The governor and lawmakers are very worried about affordable housing shortages. Between funding novel programs and creating various housing zones, our leaders were innovative.
What’s he gonna do? Although he filed for reelection to keep his options open, it was common knowledge at the session that Sen. Curt Bramble, a major force on Capitol Hill for almost 25 years, hadn’t decided whether to seek another term. Speculation about his possible retirement was rampant and of especially high interest to those who filed against him, including former Sen. Dan Hemmert, Rep. Keven Stratton and former Rep. Brad Daw.
How’s he doing? This question usually referred to new Speaker Mike Schultz. He did well. His savvy political instincts and ability to lead a caucus were impressive. He is officially a force to be reckoned with in Utah politics.
How does he do it? This is often asked about Senate President Stuart Adams. Despite grueling demands, this veteran lawmaker always maintains optimism, cheerfulness and unabated love of the Legislature. And he gets things done.
Which bill will get the most substitutes? The winner is SB161, Energy Security Amendments, which produced six substitutes. Really old guys like us recognize that as the “cherry colored” paper used for a sixth substitute. (Yes, the bill was very controversial and much amended.)
Why are they cutting income taxes? A consistent question and easy answer. More than two-thirds of lawmakers are Republican conservatives. The budget has enjoyed surplus revenues for many years and this is what the GOP does.
Will public education get anything? Yeah, like hundreds of millions of new dollars for teacher salaries and a healthy increase in the weighted pupil unit.
How is the minority party faring? The all-female team leading the loyal opposition provided clear and articulate opposition when needed, but also supported measures that benefitted all.
Why are they talking about bathrooms and college diversity stuff? Lawmakers did away with DEI titles, but still provided healthy support for marginalized students. They provided gender-neutral bathrooms in addition to bathrooms for boys only and girls only. The expressed concerns for teenagers and young adults impacted by these actions were eloquent and compelling. But, resulting legislation reflected the input of constituents and national trends.
Why do these liberal Salt Lake City and County officials support incentives for professional sports stadiums? SLC Mayor Erin Mendenhall and all lawmakers representing the Capital City supported (in varying degrees) legislation diverting tax revenue to help woo major league baseball and hockey teams. While economists badmouth such actions, these officials understand that the city cannot lose premier sporting entertainment arenas to other municipalities. The lessons learned from Major League Soccer locating in Sandy still resonate.
Any new regulations imposed on those nefarious lobbyists? Many were sponsored but only one passed. Attempts to influence a lawmaker through his or her employer is now illegal. Only fools would’ve tried that ridiculous ploy anyway.
Any new sin measures? Booze and beer will be a little more expensive with state markups. Electronic cigarettes and vaping will be restricted through a registry with limits on flavored products.
What did they do about AI? Use of artificial intelligence in political campaigns now requires disclosure. Lawmakers were unsure how to grapple with this new frontier of technology in economic and lifestyle activities. So they established the Office of Artificial Intelligence Policy to review policy ideas, and the Artificial Intelligence Learning Laboratory Program to assess technologies, risks and recommendations. A responsible, common-sense approach.
Can the governor and Legislature really eliminate the negative aspects of social media? Not totally. But they are trying — and risking litigation. They revised legislation passed in 2023 and are taking another shot at it.
Did the early candidate filing deadline have any unusual impact? It’s hard to verify. Some observers believe knowing one’s opponents produced more bills condemning the federal government or promoting conservative social causes. But there actually weren’t many more “message” bills than usual.
What do state revenue projections mean for budgets and tax cuts?
Revenue projections for the current and upcoming fiscal year have been announced, and they generally provided good news
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
Perhaps the most critical day of every legislative session is the announcement of revenue projections for the current and upcoming fiscal year. After months of nervousness, the projections generally provided good news. We ruminate on the political ramifications.
Legislative leaders colored the fiscal report as showing that Utah is returning to a strong but normal and balanced economy. One-time funds exceeded expectations in the General, Income, and Transportation funds. Ongoing revenues will see an additional increase in the Income and Transportation funds. Sales tax revenue, however, is expected to decrease. How will this shape the politics of the session?
Pignanelli: “What at first was plunder assumed the softer name of revenue.” — Thomas Paine
Most members of legislative leadership are parents, with the experience of raising teenagers. Thus, they have firsthand knowledge of setting expectations, establishing limitations and occasionally issuing discipline. These are invaluable attributes in the legislative budgetary process.
Last year, there was a legitimate concern among economists that the nation and our state would be in a recession this season. Thus, available resources for state funded programs would be severely restricted. This was an especially difficult scenario in comparison to the prior years that were flush with pandemic funding from the federal government. Therefore, state officials were not shy in withholding commitments for additional funding requests leading into the 2024 session.
Our well-managed state, combined with the remarkable work ethic of Utahns, has once again paid dividends. Although over $1 billion worth of requests were made, more projects will likely be funded as a result of this careful governance. Many recipients who may have been denied under a recession plagued economy could benefit. The push for these new allocations will flavor the politics of the session’s final days.
Hopefully, there will be more gratitude from the beneficiaries than teenagers often exude.
Webb: Utah today enjoys stable tax revenues, sufficient for state needs, but without the enormous surpluses we have seen recently. The big budget question is whether the income tax should be cut by $160 million. Personally, I oppose a tax cut at this time. The national economy remains uncertain and world affairs are very jittery.
I can think of better ways to use $160 million than an on-going tax cut no one would really notice. We are all rightly concerned about the Great Salt Lake and future water supplies. Billions of dollars are needed for water development and conservation incentives. Putting $160 million each year into a water fund would be more helpful than a tiny tax cut.
Another bright idea: GOP legislative leaders are rightly concerned about federal overreach and the imbalance in the federal system. Many federal mandates require obedience at the threat of loss of federal funding. Putting $160 million a year into a “state freedom fund” would make the state less vulnerable to some unreasonable federal decrees.
I would like to see the state engage in a “laboratory of democracy” experiment with the federal government in a few carefully selected programs. The state would retain the federal tax money Utah citizens currently send to the federal government for those programs, allowing the state to administer those programs without federal oversight and without additional federal money. Having $160 million a year to make up for reduced federal contributions to those programs would ensure sufficient funding and more freedom for the state.