Are Republicans losing their edge in the upcoming midterm elections?

Biden has had recent success, and Trump’s ‘stolen election’ claims are only hurting the Republican Party. What does this mean for November?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

On behalf of all politicos, we humbly request that readers be patient with our analysis of the weirdest midterm elections ever. The environment is constantly changing and established rules are irrelevant. We do our best to explain the most recent strange developments.

NBC News recently released a poll indicating that the expected red wave of Republican victories in November is in doubt. Despite high inflation, the economy is no longer the major issue, but “threats to democracy” are. Although they are in power, left-wingers and Democrats are just as mad as Republicans, narrowing the enthusiasm gap. And President Joe Biden has had some legislative successes. What is happening and how does it affect local elections?

Pignanelli: “Americans are angry, anxious and fired up to vote. The new NBC poll shows we may be in uncharted political territory as untested candidates, unpredictable turnout and the Trump factor are all shaking up the midterm environment.” — Chuck Todd, NBC News

Kaleidoscopes are fun toys; when rotated rapidly, they cause a motion of the materials inside and an ever-changing view. We are enduring a kaleidoscope political environment. According to a recent NBC News poll, 74% of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, 68% believe a recession exists and 61% are willing to carry a protest sign. Apparently 160 million American adults (Democrats, Republicans and independents) are enraged. Voters are bombarded with allegations their republic is in danger because of fraudulent elections or attacks on the constitutional process.

Unforeseen dynamics abound, including Supreme Court decisions, the search of Mar-a-Lago, protracted war in Ukraine, inflation rates not seen for 40 years, etc. Deep internal struggles plague both political parties. All this turmoil is causing the frequent shifts in the national political atmosphere.

Usually, voter preferences are established by Labor Day — but not this election season. America’s political environment is a true kaleidoscope, because with every turn, results are unpredictable and potent.

Webb: Democrats are nearly jumping for joy as the liberal media narrative has quickly turned from November doom and gloom to, “This midterm is different and Democrats have a path to victory!”

It’s true that this election is less predictable than usual. But I’d keep my wishful thinking in check. We’ve seen too many past elections where pollsters and wise political analysts have underestimated Republican enthusiasm and turnout. That’s as recent as 2020, when Trump was supposed to lose by a much larger margin and Republicans weren’t supposed to pick up nearly as many House seats as they did.

Still, even an old skeptic like myself wonders if at least some of the Democratic hype may be true.

The wild card in this election is Donald Trump. While his impact cuts both ways, on balance it is negative for Republicans in swing states and close races. We’re talking about razor-thin margins here. A few thousand votes in a few key races may mean the difference in control of Congress. Republicans need to win moderate and independent votes in those races. But Trump and his “stolen election” claims and the cringy candidates he got nominated, are not attractive to those mainstream voters. Were it not for Trump, some of his nominees and the whole “stolen election” nonsense, Republicans would be winning in a landslide.

Trump antagonist and Congresswoman Liz Cheney lost her primary election by a huge margin. In her concession speech, she challenged Republicans to change direction. With a few exceptions, other Trump supported candidates have been winning primaries throughout the country. Does this mean anything for the reelection of Utah’s congressional delegation?

Pignanelli: A century has passed since a former president had so much impact on inter-party elections (Theodore Roosevelt). Recent primary results promote the perception Trump is prevailing. This is creating angst for left and some moderate voters, which Evan McMullin is attempting to leverage in the Senate race.

Utah Republican candidates for federal office are subject to inquiries from the media and voters regarding Cheney. However, Blake Moore performed well in his primary despite attacks that he was too close to the Wyoming Congresswoman. This suggests that Utah voters have a limited appetite for these internecine wars.

Webb: The big danger for Utah’s members of Congress was in the primary election and they all emerged unscathed. Most of them should waltz to victory in November. The exception might be the U.S. Senate race between Sen. Mike Lee and independent Evan McMullin. If Lee takes the race seriously, runs hard and appeals to mainstream Republicans, not just the far right, he should winre-election fairly easily. As first-termers without long-standing support, 1st District Rep. Blake Moore and 4th District Rep. Burgess Owens also need to run smart, visible campaigns to connect with voters.

Amid the confusion, is there any chance for Democrats in Utah?

Pignanelli: Despite all the fury, the sentiment against President Joe Biden creates problems in federal races. Yet, candidates in some down ballot races may have opportunities if they demonstrate a distance from the national Democrats. Clever messaging on local issues is their best strategy.

Webb: Democrats themselves answered that question when they declined to nominate a Democrat in the Senate race and instead supported McMullin. Democrats can still win big in left-leaning Salt Lake City. They can win Salt Lake County and swing districts within the county if they nominate excellent candidates and run great races.

Is Biden ‘trying to tackle inflation with feel good labels’?

Biden’s approval ratings show depressing similarities to Jimmy Carter’s. What will the Inflation Reduction Act do for voting this fall?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

President Joe Biden and his administration have enjoyed recent successes, including passage of the questionably-named Inflation Reduction Act. But Biden’s approval ratings have remained low and he is now drawing comparisons to former President Jimmy Carter, who endured inflation and foreign crises. Since your columnists are old enough to actually remember the 39th president, we examine the similarities and the impact of congressional action on the elections.

Biden recently signed the IRA, which supporters claim will lower prescription drug costs, fight global warming, raise taxes on millionaires and reduce the federal deficit. Detractors claim otherwise, also noting it will hire tens of thousands of additional IRS agents. This legislation will be a key piece of Democratic strategy to prevail in the November midterm elections. Will it work?

Pignanelli: “I mean, isn’t it almost Orwellian — how can you call it Inflation Reduction Act?” — Jonathan Karl, ABC News  

Prior presidential administrations, when faced with the horror of continual price increases of consumer goods, responded with curious strategies. By executive order in 1971, Richard Nixon imposed mandatory “Wage and Price Controls.” Gerald Ford tried the 1974 “Whip Inflation Now” effort using WIN buttons to encourage less driving, waste and energy use. In 1978, Jimmy Carter announced the “Anti-Inflation Program” seeking voluntary commitments to wage and price standards. None succeeded and all three presidents were out of office within a few years.

The IRA legislation is the most recent variation of this approach. The bill does have important objectives regarding pharmaceutical costs, energy exploration and environmental programs. However, serious arguments abound, casting doubt about a positive influence on inflation. Further, any meritorious effects of the bill will not be felt for years.

Americans have grown accustomed to complicated federal legislation with clever names designed to appeal to them. But they look elsewhere to determine their personal position. If inflation is still an economic concern by Labor Day, the IRA will be disregarded by Americans in how they vote.

The one activity that remains inexpensive is searching the internet, which would have revealed to legislative sponsors the danger of trying to tackle inflation with feel good labels.

Webb: The actual impact of the legislation won’t be felt for many months or years, so Democrats will be running on wishful thinking for the next three months. More important will be how voters are feeling about inflation, crime, the immigration crisis, scary world affairs (Russia/Ukraine and China/Taiwan), energy shortages and the general economy. And, of course, Trump looms large, unfortunately.

Most Americans, myself included, can find a number of things to like in the legislation. I want cleaner air, fewer carbon emissions and less expensive prescription drugs. But it comes at the cost of additional massive federal spending. And I think it’s fantasy to believe that more IRS agents and a tax on wealthy people will pay for the many billions of dollars that will help subsidize clean energy. Count on it: Ten years from now the debt will be even more out of control and we’ll still be facing massive problems.

This spending is on top of the trillions of dollars thrown at a potpourri of programs in the last few years, which contributed to the inflation we’re suffering now. And a lot of that money hasn’t even been spent.

I’ve watched politics for 50 years and I have little faith that immense new spending on vast new federal programs will solve America’s problems. I’d rather rely on private enterprise, free markets and American ingenuity and innovation.

Biden is facing difficult issues that the country has not confronted in over 40 years including high inflation and perceived weakness in foreign affairs. Are the comparisons to the Carter presidency fair?

Pignanelli: Biden and Carter share many personal characteristics including decency, commitment to family, religious devotion, general compassion and difficulty in communicating confidence to Americans. Also, both presidents enjoyed successful legislative records (Carter: deregulation of airlines and trucking) that did not parlay into high approval ratings. There are differences. Carter was an outsider to Washington, D.C., and Biden is the consummate insider. But the Biden administration is well advised to study this predecessor to avoid the pitfalls that can plague even the most honorable of leaders.

Webb: The Biden economy isn’t quite as bad as Carter’s raging stagflation (high inflation plus high unemployment and a stagnant economy). Carter lost his second term bid when Ronald Reagan asked, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” The answer was clearly no.

Carter also suffered a disastrous foreign policy debacle when Iranian militants stormed the U.S. Embassy and took 66 Americans hostage for 444 days. Biden’s inept and bloody retreat from Afghanistan wasn’t quite as bad.    

How will the new legislation, and Biden’s perception, impact the midterm elections in Utah?

Pignanelli: GOP candidates will highlight that the IRA provides an additional $78 billion to the IRS. This tactic, combined with Biden’s unpopularity, will motivate conservative voters.

Webb: Every Utah member of Congress voted against the Inflation Reduction Act and made persuasive arguments against it. Utah has suffered some of the highest gas prices and inflation in the nation. Biden has never been popular here and control of Congress is on the line. That’s why I expect GOP incumbents to win.

Will two dinosaurs, Biden and Trump, square off again in 2024?

Many of us wonder if Joe Biden and Donald Trump are getting too old for this. But we may have a dinosaur race in 2024

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Despite big problems, both President Joseph Biden and former President Donald Trump have in some ways enjoyed a reasonably good August — so far. Both have terribly low approval ratings, but both have shown resiliency.

Trump may be in trouble with the U.S. Department of Justice, but he remains the most popular Republican and the favorite to win the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. Biden, meanwhile, has a majority of Democrats hoping he won’t seek r-election, but he has enjoyed a string of recent legislative wins.

Both Trump and Biden will break records for age if they run again in 2024. Why are these octogenarians dominating the presidential field? Can’t the nation do better?

Pignanelli: “We find (in our study) that people are happy to support older candidates in elections, but are less likely to approve of their performance in office.” — Jennifer Wolak, Damon Roberts, Political Behavior  

Aging politicians are like old shoes — worn, comfortable and preferred if no easy alternative exists. (Elderly lobbyists do not enjoy similar deference.) Although unknown in the modern era, the events Americans are witnessing in the national political arena have deep historical precedent. From 1800 to the late 20th century, prior presidents and former nominees often haunted their parties’ nomination activities for one more chance.

Other dynamics are also at play. Both Trump and Biden were elected because of who they were not (Trump was not Hillary Clinton and the D.C. establishment, Biden was not Trump). Polls reveal most Americans want neither Trump nor Biden to run again but few identify replacements. The realignment of ideologies and demographics among the two major parties is still occurring, thereby hampering the breakout of new leaders. In this vacuum Biden and Trump are the de facto champions.

History is repeating the preference for old shoes by voters nervous about potentially ill-fitting substitutes.

Webb: It is depressing to think that these two dinosaurs may once again be the candidates for president in 2024. As an old dinosaur myself, I believe it’s time for them to slink off and allow a new generation of leaders to take over.

If Trump somehow managed to win, I would welcome him reversing course on Biden’s liberal policies. But I no longer trust his judgement, especially when it comes to world affairs. He lost my support when he damaged the Republican Party and the cause of conservatism by continuing to falsely claim (to this day) that the 2020 election was stolen.

We have entered an extremely perilous time in foreign affairs. Russia is at war with Ukraine and China threatens war with Taiwan. Both bluster about severe consequences and war expansion if the U.S. and its allies make the wrong moves. Without tough, but level-headed and thoughtful leadership, we could be facing World War III with nuclear weapons in the mix.

While Biden’s leadership in foreign affairs hotspots has been abysmal, especially his disastrous retreat from Afghanistan, Trump is far too erratic and impulsive to trust leading the world at this time. In these scary times, neither Trump or Biden can provide the leadership we need.

Politically, this is a time of great opportunity for Republicans. The House, Senate and the presidency (in 2024) are waiting to be taken. The only person who can mess up GOP chances for victory is Trump.

Rumors abound that Trump will announce his reelection bid even before the midterm elections in November. This despite pressure from GOP candidates who worry it would hurt their chances to take control of Congress. If Trump does announce soon, how will this impact Utah’s November elections, especially for the U.S. Senate?

Pignanelli: If Trump reveals before November, independent Senate candidate Evan McMullin will pounce fast. He will leverage the fear of a second Trump presidency, and the need for him to be in the Senate to push back, as fundraising and “get out the vote” tactics. Yet, McMullin benefits only if Sen. Mike Lee is unable to counter that the challenger’s actions again demonstrate a bend against conservative principles.

Down ballot Democrats may receive a slight bump from voters incentivized by an aggressive McMullin push. Regardless, the coming red wave in Utah will not be hampered by an early Trump declaration.

Webb: If Trump announces before November it will be proof that he doesn’t care at all about Republican candidates and what’s best for the party. He only cares about himself and staying continually in the spotlight. If the GOP does not win control of the Senate, it will be Trump’s fault for endorsing bad candidates.

Is there a chance that other candidates may try for the presidency regardless of Trump or Biden?

Pignanelli: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis possesses the fortitude to challenge Trump. Moderate Republican Govs. John Kasich (Ohio) and Larry Hogan (Maryland) may take the plunge. Democrats love to grumble about Biden, and no challenger has yet to step forward. But rumors are circulating about Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Webb: A number of Republicans will try to compete with Trump. Someone from the far left will likely challenge Biden. But Biden and Trump, unfortunately, are the odds-on favorites to win the nominations.

Only 7% of Americans have confidence in Congress. Are institutions failing us?

Americans have a general lack of faith in institutions. What’s the solution?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

In this era of high inflation and political dysfunction, confidence in most of America’s largest institutions is at the lowest point ever, according to a recent Gallup survey.

Average confidence across all institutions is at a new low of 27%, compared to nearly 50% in 1979. It’s astounding that only 7% of Americans have a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in Congress. Only small business (68%) and the military (64%) enjoy the confidence of more than 50% of Americans.

This raises some important questions.

Why the general lack of confidence is America’s institutions — especially the presidency (23%), newspapers (16%), the criminal justice system (14%), big business (14%), television news (11%) and Congress (7%)? Even church/organized religion had only 31% confidence.

Pignanelli: “Things look too bureaucratized, too defensive of and protective of the organization itself. It isn’t good.” — Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal

For decades, calling someone a “Boy Scout” was a snarky compliment of virtue and wholesomeness. (This accolade was never directed at me, for obvious reasons.) But a multibillion-dollar class-action lawsuit alleging thousands suffered sexual abuse bankrupted the scouting organization and altered this positive perspective.

This summer, Americans witnessed the video revealing hundreds of well-armed police officers outside a classroom, awaiting instructions for 80 minutes, while fourth graders were slaughtered.

Reports of sexual abuse, and cover-up actions, were made against religious organizations other than the tragedies besetting the Catholic Church.

These are just recent examples of traditional bulwarks in our society that fell into scorn. Their downfall layers over the hyperpartisan sniping in national politics and federal government bloat. Consequently, confidence in even our most iconic institutions is disappearing. The common themes underscoring the distrust are perceptions the interests of an organization are prioritized over customers, adherents, citizens and the vulnerable.

The silver lining in the survey is the respect small business and the military enjoy from most Americans. This demonstrates our nation still prizes entrepreneurism, loyalty, courage, etc. We are not keen on organizations, institutions or companies that ignore these traits.

The solution to this crisis is a commitment to ideals and missions, not the entity itself. Then to be labeled its member (i.e. “Scout”) will be a true compliment.

Webb: Part of the abysmal confidence ratings is attributable to the economy, especially inflation and rising interest rates. Current conditions have a lot of people and small businesses upset and fearful of the future.

However, this trend has been going on for several years, even when the economy was booming, jobs were plentiful and standards of living were rising for most Americans. So it is something that’s pretty deep in the psyche of Americans.

I believe that concentration of power at the federal government level, in giant corporations, in big tech and big social media are a very large part of the confidence deficit. Citizens feel a lack of control. They feel powerless when dealing with these gigantic, bureaucratic institutions. Fraying family life also plays a role. Those are pretty tough obstacles to overcome.  

Congress has only itself to blame for its worst-of-the-worst confidence rating. It’s the place where America’s biggest problems go to get buried in dysfunction and partisanship. The news media are a reflection of political partisanship and bias and thus don’t enjoy the confidence of the citizenry. 

In general, do Utahns share this disdain toward America’s most important institutions?Pignanelli: Our local institutions usually perform well and enjoy greater confidence by residents. Utahns are among the most hard-working, ethical and compassionate people on the planet. They have little patience with inefficient behavior, especially “kicking the can.” While we are just not as demonstrative as others, frustration with national organizations exists.

Webb: Utah Foundation recently did a very interesting study on Utah’s “Social Capital Index.” It notes that social scientists affirm a long-term national decline in social capital — “the bonds between people and among networks.” Lack of confidence in major institutions, as outlined in the Gallup study, is a manifestation of the fraying of social capital.

However, the Utah Foundation study showed that in 2021, “Utah had the highest level of social capital in the nation.” Utah ranks well in civic engagement, social trust, community life, family life, social cohesion and a focus on future generations.

So, while Utahns no doubt share national opinions regarding a lack of confidence in major institutions, they are much more likely to have confidence in their neighborhood, community and state institutions.

Can Congress function effectively when only 7% of Americans have confidence in it?

Pignanelli: Americans tend to like their individual congressional representatives but hold distaste for the institution. But this abysmal rating is a new low and should give all concern. If our federal officials cannot foster credence, how can they rally the nation to overcome major problems? Time for a reset.

Webb: Congress (and presidents) have set themselves up for failure by falsely promising that they can solve every problem for every American from cradle to grave. They need to be far more modest and reduce expectations by sending most problems back to the states and communities where they can be addressed close to home, according to local conditions and desires, by mayors, city councils, county leaders, legislatures and governors.

Are Mike Lee and Evan McMullin really this close in the race for U.S. Senate?

Utah’s U.S. Senate race is making national and global news as Evan McMullin and Mike Lee get ready for November voting. What does McMullin’s independent candidacy status mean if he is elected?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

The dog days of summer — and politics — are officially here. An unexpected political heat wave, the U.S. Senate race, is contributing to the sizzle. We’d prefer to lie down and pant in a cool spot under a shade tree, but as political meteorologists, we must stay on the job and provide an accurate forecast.

The Mike Lee/Evan McMullin Senate race is getting some national notice and polls show it is closer than many people expected. Are the surveys reading the voters accurately?

Pignanelli: “The difference between life and the movies is that a script has to make sense, and life doesn’t.” — Joseph Mankiewicz

Hollywood has distributed dozens of movies with plots of outsider candidates using quirky tactics to achieve high office. So Utahns can be excused for a surreal feeling of living in a cinematic environment when pondering the Senate race. Indeed, the strangeness of this contest has captured national and global attention.

This unusual fascination captured the imagination of many voters. Meanwhile, Lee was under assault from primary opponents for at least six months, while McMullin enjoyed a free pass. McMullin supporters publicly heaped praise for his lofty ideals (some comparing him to Abraham Lincoln) while disparaging Lee. Consequently, some surveys are predicting a close race.

However, those polls that survey “likely to vote” respondents (and not just those registered to vote) demonstrate a much larger margin between Lee and McMullin. Campaign veterans prefer such sound methodology. Thus, perceptions may be based more on hope by some in the media and political class.

The shroud of mystique surrounding this race will be yanked by the forces of reality. Even this happens in the movies.

Webb: This is obviously a crazy time in politics, and no politician should feel comfortable. McMullin has obviously touched a nerve with his anti-Donald Trump rhetoric and he demonstrated some finesse in winning the support of the Democratic Party.

But the challenge for McMullin is that this race is going to be nationalized as a referendum on Joe Biden and the mess the Democrats have made of the country. It’s not just about McMullin and Lee, or their personalities, or about Trump, or whether Lee has been too close to Trump.

In the cool autumn, when voters really begin to pay attention, the Senate election will be framed as an opportunity to turn things around, or continue to lurch toward even bigger government and more spending envisioned in the arch-liberal Democratic agenda.

Whether the U.S. Senate is controlled by liberal Democrats or conservative Republicans may be determined by one or two races, the Lee/McMullin race among them. A vote for Lee is a clear vote for Mitch McConnell taking control as Senate majority leader. It’s a vote for a more conservative future for the country.

A vote for McMullin is a vote for the unknown. He apparently has Republican roots, but he’s been warmly embraced by liberal Democrats, and he won’t commit to supporting the GOP agenda. A vote for McMullin is a vote for Chuck Schumer to continue to run the Senate.

To many mainstream conservatives, even those who don’t like Trump and aren’t totally comfortable with Lee, it’s still a pretty easy choice. Voting for McMullin could put a conservative resurgence in jeopardy.

Both supporters and detractors of McMullin are raising the issue of his refusal to caucus with Republicans or Democrats if elected. Some claim this is an advantage and others say it will hurt Utah. Is this a real issue?

Pignanelli: An element of the Utah psyche is a well-deserved antagonism towards the federal government. Despite these emotions, individuals, families and businesses depend upon a congressional delegation that can efficiently interact with federal agencies and Congress. This includes issues regarding immigration, regulations, appropriations, etc.

Regardless of intentions, someone who refuses to participate in a caucus will be deemed an outlier by leadership. McMullin is OK with such a result (“they can put me in the supply closet”). This is risky to Utahns wishing assistance from his office. Careless proposals to hamper congressional constituent services must be a significant election issue.

Webb: To be at all effective, McMullin would need to find a Senate home, formal or informal, with one of the parties. That’s what most other independents have done. McMullin is supported by Democrats, so aligning with Democrats would seem likely.

How will this strange race impact down ballot congressional and state elections?

Pignanelli: Those Utah voters still misty-eyed over McMullin in November will be available for other candidates to garner and should strategize accordingly. Without a candidate on the ballot for the U.S. Senate, Democrats are trying to minimize the resulting constraints on coordinating campaign activities.

Webb: The Senate race won’t have a big impact on other contests, but it can’t help Democrats to not even have a candidate at the top of the ticket.

The floats you’ll never see at the Pioneer Day parade

Though political themes are banned at the Days of ’47 Pioneer Day parade, we imagine what they would look like.

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Sunday is Pioneer Day, a uniquely Utah celebration that has wisely been broadened to honor all Utahns, past and present, who have been pioneers in a variety of ways.

Thus, whether you will be at church on Sunday singing, “Come, Come Ye Saints,” or welcoming the arrival of Ukrainian immigrant pioneers fleeing violence, or celebrating the success of pioneering women politicians, this day has something for everyone.

The famous parade through downtown Salt Lake City will be held on Saturday. All Utahns should enjoy this pageantry that honors pioneer virtues, even if our ancestors were not in that original pioneer company crossing the Plains. Political themes are banned in the Days of ’47 Parade. But that doesn’t stop our eccentric imaginations from envisioning what politicos and other people might do if they had the opportunity:

Gov. Spencer Cox: On a flatbed farm truck with manure on its wheels, standing between lifelike statues of cable TV personalities Tucker Carlson and John Oliver. Overhead, a large banner reads, “Mocked by the right wing and left wing, proving I am your mainstream Utah governor.”

Sen. Mitt Romney: In a convertible with his family holding a sign, “Romney: Utah’s Junior Senator but the State’s Elder Statesman.”

Sen. Mike Lee: Standing astride a huge float with a massive elephant and the banner, “Remember, I’m the Republican in this race — not that guy endorsed by left-wing Democrats!”

Independent Senate candidate Evan McMullin: Standing on a platform, arms outstretched, on a float surrounded by adoring followers holding the banner, “Evan McMullin, the modern Moses guiding us into the land of civil discourse, unvarnished truth, better days, more butterflies and unicorns.”

Inland Port Authority board members: Marching and holding the banner, “This is the year we do something. We promise. Really, something is going to happen. Something big!”

Utah Hospitality Association (trade organization for clubs and bars): Huge float with papier-mâché cocktail glasses and beer mugs with banner, “Beat the drought. Visit our establishments for the best alternative to water.”

Convicted inmates: Under the watchful eye of burly guards, representatives of the prison population will march holding the banner, “Hey Utah, thanks for the new digs. Very cool. Can we borrow some mosquito repellent?”

Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson: Surrounded by staff carrying the banner, “Maintaining Utah’s other legacy — preventing nonexistent voter fraud.”

Senate President Stuart Adams and House Speaker Brad Wilson: Leading a pack of lawmakers: “Utah legislators: the officials you love to grumble about while we do the heavy lifting for water, transportation, growth and education. You’re welcome!”

University of Utah President Taylor Randall: In a truck pulling a large billboard proclaiming “University of Utah, proud member of the Pac-12 (10), or Big 12, or affiliation with ACC, or revitalization of Mountain West Conference or …?”

BYU President Kevin Worthen: Walking with his family holding a sign: “BYU. Now you need us for a major conference. Maybe we will forgive.”

Utah Republican Party Chairman Carson Jorgensen and his officers carrying the banner, “Utah GOP. Our primary purge didn’t work so well. On to the general elections.”

Utah Democratic Party Chairwoman Diane Lewis and her officers carrying the banner, “Please consider anything other than inflation when voting this year. Please.”

Salt Lake City Mayor Erin Mendenhall: Riding a convertible with the sign “Salt Lake City: providing wokeness, diversity and coolness to Utah.”

Attorney General Sean Reyes: Carrying a sign with his deputies, “Suing the feds, Big Tech and really bad guys. Somebody (especially a potential U.S. Senate candidate in 2024) has to do it.”

Utah Jazz players and management: Riding a float with the banner, “New management, new uniforms, new coach, new players. Will we win any games? Stay tuned.”

Friends of Great Salt Lake environmental group: Members carrying banner, “Finally, we got your attention.”

Opinion: Digging through the ‘dustbin of history’ — abortion is back on the ballot

Whether you are celebrating or mourning the overturning of Roe v. Wade, you should know what the future will look like

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Controversies that once seemed to be in the dustbin of history — inflation, gas prices, superpower friction — have recently reappeared. Abortion is now added to that list. We offer our opinions on this sensitive and volatile issue and its impact on elections and lawmaking.

How will the reversal of Roe v. Wade by the U.S. Supreme Court play out in national and local politics?

Pignanelli: “For half a century, Roe kept a lid on this issue politically. You had activist groups on each side. But it wasn’t a central issue in campaigns.” — Jonathan Karl, ABC News

I vividly remember when Roe v. Wade was publicized in January 1973. The seventh and eighth graders of my parochial elementary/middle school in Holladay were ordered by the teachers — Irish Catholic nuns — to kneel by our desks and pray. When we were dismissed, the nuns declared they were joining a collective effort to reverse the decision. I did not comprehend this was the beginning of a large-scale effort to overturn established law. (But I still recall the pain in my knees.)

Recent polls indicate this issue is stirring movement among voters. But whether it overcomes inflation and gas prices for priority at the polls remains an open question. Most politicos expect the GOP to regain control of the House, but with a reduced margin. However, the surveys do reaffirm that a majority of Americans are in the middle. Thus, in the forthcoming heated battles inside Congress and legislatures, perceived overreach by either side (i.e. too restrictive or too expansive) could cause backlash in November. Because this is an unprecedented situation, long-term predictions are difficult.

The upcoming Utah general elections will not be affected. But over time activists from both sides will demand statements of support in local government and legislative deliberations. Litmus tests will be aggressively applied in the 2024 conventions and primaries.

The court decision did reaffirm a fundamental lesson learned by millions of Catholics: never doubt earnest nuns.

Webb: I want to note, at the outset, that because I’m not a woman I hesitate to weigh in on something that is so deeply personal to women. However, I have heard many wise, thoughtful and loving women make points with which I strongly agree. So I feel comfortable following their lead.

I fully support the court’s bold and correct decision and I don’t think it will be a major factor in the 2022 elections.

But first, I hope we can all agree that with abortion prohibited in Utah for most pregnancies, we need to better help women avoid unwanted pregnancies, support them if they do become pregnant, and provide help for the mother and new baby when it arrives. If we support a culture of life, it means more than just outlawing abortion.

Second, there must be thoughtful exceptions to the abortion prohibition. I subscribe to the position of Utah’s largest religious faith: Exceptions could include pregnancy resulting from rape and incest; when life and health of the mother is in serious jeopardy; or the unborn baby has severe defects making it unable to survive beyond birth.

Those guidelines have enough flexibility to accommodate a number of complexities and nuances. Individual circumstances can be difficult and tragic, so abortion laws need enough leeway to accommodate those things.

But I firmly believe society has an obligation to support life, to protect unborn babies from abortion-on-demand, abortion-as-a-convenience. The angry, abortion-rights activists shout loudly about a woman’s right to control her body, but never do they mention the little human growing inside her. No one on that side speaks for the baby.

And science is on the side of life. As we learn more about the development of unborn babies, we understand they are little humans and medical advancements help them become viable earlier and earlier in pregnancies.

Politically, this issue has energized the Democratic base and will perhaps impact some very close races. But it won’t save the Democrats from big losses this year.

The court ruling is likely to affect a variety of business and personal interests, including health insurance, employee relations, boycotts, privacy, etc. Will these factors impact political deliberations?

Pignanelli: In modern America, public policy debates on many issues are conducted through boycotts, investment/disinvestment demands, petitions, social media activities, etc. Expect the same treatment on this issue from both sides. Employer-based health insurance programs, especially among multistate companies, now have a new challenge. Privacy considerations of how the new laws are enforced will ensue. As with other issues, these practical concerns will seep into political discussions and elections.

Mitt Romney thinks Americans are in denial. What does this mean for America — and his career?

Mitt Romney called out Americans for our lack of action on critical issues. Will his method be effective, or has he alienated too many?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

On July 4, the prestigious Atlantic magazine published an article, “America is in Denial,” by Mitt Romney. Because he is Utah’s junior senator, a former Republican presidential nominee and one of the better-known members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, his thought-provoking essay deserves some analysis — especially because he was probably talking about us.

Romney’s article captured plenty of local and national attention. He was critical of Americans in general, and especially partisan Democrats and Republicans, accusing pretty much all of us of being in denial with our “blithe dismissal of potentially cataclysmic threats,” including debt, immigration and global warming. Joseph Biden, Donald Trump and Congress were special targets of his wrath. He hopes for a future president who can unite the country. Until then, all of us must “grasp the mantle of leadership.” Is he correct, or a little too harsh?

Pignanelli: “Americans learn only from catastrophe and not from experience.” — Theodore Roosevelt  

Romney’s admonitions mirror lectures children receive from parents: Do not procrastinate because that just makes the task harder. The senator, an accomplished former businessman and governor who never shied from challenges, lists realistic concerns that need response.

But Americans have always been in denial with a “natural inclination toward wishful thinking.” Unrealistic is a kind description of our founders who gambled that a motley crew of colonial farmers could defeat the world’s largest military and economic power. Other examples include noninterventionists in both political parties who were borderline irresponsible by ignoring foreign events that led to both world wars.

Polls indicate that most Americans comprehend the major issues that confront them and their children. But we are suspicious of officials demanding changes to our lifestyle until necessary. Understanding this national character trait, Romney correctly illustrates “a crisis can shake the public consciousness.”

History documents that once Americans decide action is needed, nothing stops us. Yet, the momentum must be organic and percolating from the average citizen. This is how all the great movements of our country succeeded (i.e. abolitionism, Prohibition, women’s suffrage, civil rights, etc.) Great leaders who can point the way out of our current mess are forthcoming, but only because hardy followers are ready.

Although Romney’s counseling is important, we must remember that all parents were once children who procrastinated.

Webb: I just hope the lawns at the various Romney mansions are brown and dead. Otherwise, someone is going to look hypocritical.

I like Sen. Romney. I think he’s mostly an effective senator who focuses on serious issues and gets things done. And I don’t mind being chewed out by him. He’s right that I don’t do enough to solve climate change, the immigration crisis and the burgeoning federal debt. After all, in the winter I feed my cows alfalfa, one of those “water-thirsty crops” Romney decries. And we get a lot of those evil “daily Amazon deliveries.” I’m glad my wife joins me in our denialship.

Romney is correct that the nation’s isn’t facing up to some serious problems. But it’s never a good idea for a politician, especially a wealthy aristocratic one, who is often called elitist, to get up on his high horse and lecture American citizens like they are naughty children. It never works.

Romney’s essay reminded me of Jimmy Carter’s famous “malaise” speech in 1979 during a serious energy crisis. Carter lamented that Americans showed a “crisis of confidence” that “strikes at the very heart and soul of our national will,” threatening to “destroy the social and political fabric of America.” He said Americans “worship self-indulgence and consumption.” He cited a litany of serious problems and asked Americans to sacrifice more.  

The very next year, Carter lost in a landslide to Ronald Reagan, who saw a “shining city on a hill” instead of insurmountable problems. Today, Romney sees a “national malady of denial, deceit and distrust.”

Romney’s probably right that we won’t solve those big problems until we’re forced to. That’s sorta the way we do things, especially at the federal level. In the meantime, my pocketbook would vote for fewer of those Amazon deliveries.

Romney‘s approval rating dramatically increased in the last year. But he has yet to declare intentions for reelection. Is this article a sounding board for 2024, or the beginning of a farewell?

Pignanelli: Most Utah senators have fostered controversy in some form, and Romney is no exception. The rebound in approval ratings reflects a respect for his willingness to undertake tough decisions. Recent actions (i.e. fundraisers, this article) indicate he is in the contemplative mode, possibly weighing midterm election results.

Webb: My best guess is that Romney will seek reelection in 2024 and probably win. But he has made it much harder for himself by alienating many Utah Republicans who still like Trump. I understand Romney’s visceral dislike of Trump. I don’t like Trump either. But I do have a problem with politicians who make no effort to really understand those many millions of hardworking, patriotic, salt-of-the-earth, heartland Americans (many of my neighbors) who do support Trump.

Romney should get out in Utah’s heartland and talk to some small-town folks about why they grow alfalfa and why they support Trump. If those folks had not been ignored, misread and alienated for many years by the elitist, establishment, erudite, politically correct ruling class, Trump would never have been elected. 

Misunderstanding heartland Americans is why Democrats are going to get clobbered in November. It’s why Romney will have difficulty in 2024 when he seeks reelection.

What have other members of our congressional delegation had to say about critical issues?

Pignanelli: Sen. Mike Lee is the most prolific while serving in office. He authored several well-written books regarding the Constitution, along with treatises in various publications, that impacted conservative deliberations. Chris Stewart was a well-known writer prior to public service. He and fellow members of Utah’s congressional delegation have all penned op-eds on various issues.

Webb: Utah’s other members of Congress have all written essays on various topics. But because they’re not outwardly anti-Trump, they don’t enjoy the bully media pulpit as does Romney. The traditional media love to provide a forum for Trump-hating Republicans.