NEWS & EVENTS
A user-friendly guide to the 2022 midterm election
Will the Mar-a-Lago documents or another Biden gaffe cause more mayhem this election season? Get a recap on everything you need to know before you vote
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
Pignanelli & Webb: Labor Day weekend was the unofficial kickoff to the 2022 midterm election’s sprint down the straightaway. Americans and Utahns will be wooed and bombarded in the next 60 days by candidates and super PACs. Because this is an unusual midterm election, we offer a primer about what readers should watch for and consider.
External trends and perceptions. The conventional wisdom was that inflation and gas prices will drive electoral preferences this year. Statistically, both are dropping. But if by mid-October the perception persists that we are still in an inflationary recession, the impact will be felt, and it won’t be good for Democrats.
Voter instincts on crime, student debt forgiveness, cultural shifts and weather patterns/climate change could be huge factors nationally, but also in certain Utah contests.
The abortion initiative in Kansas this summer instructed politicos that extreme positions on the issue are not popular. So inflammatory rhetoric or lack of it, will also influence elections. Politicians and parties that overreach get punished. Out-of-control immigration at the southern border will also be an election issue.
Technical details. Utah voters and candidates need to remember that mail-in ballots will be sent in mid-October. Further, there is no straight ticket voting. Both measures allow for more fluidity by voters and a little less certainty by prognosticators.
The Utah U.S. senate race. Independent candidate Evan McMullin needs a coalition of Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans to win. It’s a difficult trick to pull off. He will need to readjust his focus to attract persuadable Republicans. Readers can expect an aggressive appeal by McMullin to this constituency. Of course, incumbent Sen. Mike Lee will be spending millions to remind Utah’s dominant Republicans that he is one, and McMullin is not.
Normally, a Utah Senate contest would receive little attention outside of the state. But McMullin’s fundraising and polling performances have captured the interest of observers across the country. Utah airwaves will be blitzed by national organizations from both sides. Much will depend on how well Lee nationalizes the race and convinces Republicans they need to reelect him to give Republicans a chance to win control of the Senate.
Regardless of the outcome, if McMullin exceeds expectations in the next two months, you may see this model of an independent candidate in elections elsewhere in the country, and more in Utah.
Salt Lake County Council. The state’s largest county is definitely purple, with a Democratic mayor and GOP-controlled council. So the matchup between incumbent Republican businessmen Richard Snelgrove and physician and former state lawmaker Suzanne Harrison will reveal which issues and positions drive the outcome. This will set the table for the 2024 battles.
Write-in contests. Yes, we are watching this Davis County legislative race. Rep. Steve Handy is a popular moderate Davis County Republican who has led legislative efforts on clean air, technology and other issues. So the Utah political world was shocked when he lost his convention battle to newcomer Trevor Lee. (Handy admits it was silly of him not to obtain signatures to obtain a position on the primary ballot.)
Late last month, Handy announced a write-in campaign for the general election. Normally such an effort would be readily dismissed. However, Handy is a well-known incumbent and is garnering support and financing from high-profile individuals and various organizations. And there isn’t a Democrat on the ballot.
This strange contest could be a true determinant of preferences by the suburban GOP. Handy is a moderate and Trevor Lee is a hardline conservative. Write-in campaigns are extremely difficult, so if Handy performs beyond expectations, expect to hear more about this race — nationally and locally.
Meanwhile, another significant write-in campaign could occur in far northern Utah. Republican Rep. Joel Ferry has been appointed director of the Department of Natural Resources, but Republicans are hoping his name can stay on the ballot so they can appoint a legislative replacement after the election. Democrats are seeking a court order to remove him from the ballot. Such a serious judicial action would leave only a Democratic candidate and possible GOP write-ins.
State school board. Candidates now run as political party members. How they campaign will be instructive as to educational issues that will confront public education and the Legislature.
U.S. House of Representatives. The Republican performance metrics in all four Congressional districts suggest these races will be called early. The real contests for these candidates were the primary challenges. So how they campaign in the general election could be a strategy to diminish future interparty contests.
Utah Legislature. There are a handful of swing districts north of Utah County on the Wasatch Front. Often, these results can be predicted by the external forces of the election season. However, shrewd candidates of both political parties who focus hard on unique local issues can prevail.
The October surprise. No American election worth its salt can be complete without some bombshell in the weeks or days preceding the election. Heaven only knows what that will be in 2022. Revelations about the documents at the Trump residence or another awkward gaffe by Biden could change dynamics. The way the year has been trending, visits from aliens from outer space is probable. That might make a good closing message: “Vote for me to fight off the aliens!”
Most of all, please enjoy the ride.
How much will student loan forgiveness impact upcoming elections?
President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan will likely divide voters
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
Every so often, a surprise issue hits the political arena that unexpectedly changes the trajectory of elections.
In the early 1990s, the House Post Office scandal (yes, we’re so old we remember it) helped power a GOP takeover of Congress after 40 years of Democratic dominance. A series of scandals led to the Democrats retaking control in 2006. Responses to Obamacare and bailouts transformed the House in 2010. We explore the potential of similar occurrences this election season.
Does the student loan forgiveness order issued by President Joe Biden have the potential to alter the 2022 midterm elections nationally and locally?
Pignanelli: “I would get my student loans, get money, register and never really go. It was a system I thought would somehow pan out.” — Ray Romano
As an act of generosity and brevity, I will refrain from adding a long winded diatribe to the expanding pool of opinion on this matter. (I spent years cleaning toilets, cleaning buildings and working other manual labors to reduce the loan amounts ultimately obtained, and paid back, for law school. Thus, I do have a perspective.)
The student loan forgiveness will affect voters’ deliberations. The matter is easily understood as either a needed or unjust benefit, depending on one’s personal experiences. There are no nuances. Republicans are already running ads illustrating the unfairness to blue-collar Americans. This explains why Democrats in swing states are separating themselves from the president on this.
Early polling demonstrates that loan forgiveness is popular with younger Americans (who need incentives to vote) and unpopular with those over 50 (who love to vote).
The loan forgiveness will not be an issue identified in polling as a top priority for voters, but it will be on their minds as they finalize their decisions in the next several weeks.
In local swing districts, candidates with a younger population will include support in their messaging. Conversely, regions with an older population will prompt some candidates to openly criticize the program.
This dispute is relevant in a personal way to almost everyone, and thereby inflames emotions. It certainly brought back memories of a simpler, and grungier, time for me.
Webb: Biden’s massive loan cancellation program obviously cuts both ways. College debtors will love it. People who paid off their loans or didn’t go to college will resent it. Conservatives deride the program as forcing hard-working truck drivers and plumbers to pay the debt of unemployed snobs who got degrees in gender studies.
Even House Speaker Nancy Pelosi a short time ago said the president didn’t have authority to unilaterally cancel debt. Other clear-thinking Democrats have said the $300 billion program will exacerbate inflation and is unfair to future borrowers who won’t get their debt forgiven. You got your loan yesterday, you win. You get your loan tomorrow, you lose. Unfairness built right in.
My biggest concern is the cumulative effect of all the government subsidies, bailouts and handouts of the last few years. The New York Times reported: “Stimulus bills approved by Congress beginning in 2020 unleashed the largest flood of federal money into the United States economy in recorded history. Roughly $5 trillion went to households, mom-and-pop shops, restaurants, airlines, hospitals, local governments, schools and other institutions around the country. ...” That’s not counting the infrastructure legislation that added another $1.2 trillion. The loan forgiveness program will add at least $300 billion.
Much of this, of course, is above and beyond the regular, ongoing federal spending. And can you imagine how much worse it would be if Biden and the Democrats had passed ALL of the programs they proposed? There were trillions more in the Build Back Better and American Families Plan legislation.
Keep that in mind when you vote in November.
At least Republicans in the U.S. Senate were able to trim down some of these massive programs. But spending has still been so high it’s not even fathomable. Politicians talk about a trillion dollars like it’s nothing. Free money to be printed or borrowed with no consequence. But all the spending, so far, has produced a 40-year inflation peak, high interest rates, a housing sales collapse and a major stock market decline.
Does the student loan debate add to voter enthusiasm being generated by inflation, the Dobbs abortion decision and the FBI raid at Mar-a-Lago?
Pignanelli: Inflation and gas prices were the significant energy behind the red wave. But fallout from the abortion decision is impacting several demographic groups, moving the needle in swing congressional districts. Clever messaging on the loan debate may again realign these volatile voters.
Left of center constituencies will be more comfortable casting a ballot for Democrats. But the matter will inflame the typical Trump voter. So once again the battleground is in suburbia.
Are Republicans losing their edge in the upcoming midterm elections?
Biden has had recent success, and Trump’s ‘stolen election’ claims are only hurting the Republican Party. What does this mean for November?
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
On behalf of all politicos, we humbly request that readers be patient with our analysis of the weirdest midterm elections ever. The environment is constantly changing and established rules are irrelevant. We do our best to explain the most recent strange developments.
NBC News recently released a poll indicating that the expected red wave of Republican victories in November is in doubt. Despite high inflation, the economy is no longer the major issue, but “threats to democracy” are. Although they are in power, left-wingers and Democrats are just as mad as Republicans, narrowing the enthusiasm gap. And President Joe Biden has had some legislative successes. What is happening and how does it affect local elections?
Pignanelli: “Americans are angry, anxious and fired up to vote. The new NBC poll shows we may be in uncharted political territory as untested candidates, unpredictable turnout and the Trump factor are all shaking up the midterm environment.” — Chuck Todd, NBC News
Kaleidoscopes are fun toys; when rotated rapidly, they cause a motion of the materials inside and an ever-changing view. We are enduring a kaleidoscope political environment. According to a recent NBC News poll, 74% of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, 68% believe a recession exists and 61% are willing to carry a protest sign. Apparently 160 million American adults (Democrats, Republicans and independents) are enraged. Voters are bombarded with allegations their republic is in danger because of fraudulent elections or attacks on the constitutional process.
Unforeseen dynamics abound, including Supreme Court decisions, the search of Mar-a-Lago, protracted war in Ukraine, inflation rates not seen for 40 years, etc. Deep internal struggles plague both political parties. All this turmoil is causing the frequent shifts in the national political atmosphere.
Usually, voter preferences are established by Labor Day — but not this election season. America’s political environment is a true kaleidoscope, because with every turn, results are unpredictable and potent.
Webb: Democrats are nearly jumping for joy as the liberal media narrative has quickly turned from November doom and gloom to, “This midterm is different and Democrats have a path to victory!”
It’s true that this election is less predictable than usual. But I’d keep my wishful thinking in check. We’ve seen too many past elections where pollsters and wise political analysts have underestimated Republican enthusiasm and turnout. That’s as recent as 2020, when Trump was supposed to lose by a much larger margin and Republicans weren’t supposed to pick up nearly as many House seats as they did.
Still, even an old skeptic like myself wonders if at least some of the Democratic hype may be true.
The wild card in this election is Donald Trump. While his impact cuts both ways, on balance it is negative for Republicans in swing states and close races. We’re talking about razor-thin margins here. A few thousand votes in a few key races may mean the difference in control of Congress. Republicans need to win moderate and independent votes in those races. But Trump and his “stolen election” claims and the cringy candidates he got nominated, are not attractive to those mainstream voters. Were it not for Trump, some of his nominees and the whole “stolen election” nonsense, Republicans would be winning in a landslide.
Trump antagonist and Congresswoman Liz Cheney lost her primary election by a huge margin. In her concession speech, she challenged Republicans to change direction. With a few exceptions, other Trump supported candidates have been winning primaries throughout the country. Does this mean anything for the reelection of Utah’s congressional delegation?
Pignanelli: A century has passed since a former president had so much impact on inter-party elections (Theodore Roosevelt). Recent primary results promote the perception Trump is prevailing. This is creating angst for left and some moderate voters, which Evan McMullin is attempting to leverage in the Senate race.
Utah Republican candidates for federal office are subject to inquiries from the media and voters regarding Cheney. However, Blake Moore performed well in his primary despite attacks that he was too close to the Wyoming Congresswoman. This suggests that Utah voters have a limited appetite for these internecine wars.
Webb: The big danger for Utah’s members of Congress was in the primary election and they all emerged unscathed. Most of them should waltz to victory in November. The exception might be the U.S. Senate race between Sen. Mike Lee and independent Evan McMullin. If Lee takes the race seriously, runs hard and appeals to mainstream Republicans, not just the far right, he should winre-election fairly easily. As first-termers without long-standing support, 1st District Rep. Blake Moore and 4th District Rep. Burgess Owens also need to run smart, visible campaigns to connect with voters.
Amid the confusion, is there any chance for Democrats in Utah?
Pignanelli: Despite all the fury, the sentiment against President Joe Biden creates problems in federal races. Yet, candidates in some down ballot races may have opportunities if they demonstrate a distance from the national Democrats. Clever messaging on local issues is their best strategy.
Webb: Democrats themselves answered that question when they declined to nominate a Democrat in the Senate race and instead supported McMullin. Democrats can still win big in left-leaning Salt Lake City. They can win Salt Lake County and swing districts within the county if they nominate excellent candidates and run great races.
Is Biden ‘trying to tackle inflation with feel good labels’?
Biden’s approval ratings show depressing similarities to Jimmy Carter’s. What will the Inflation Reduction Act do for voting this fall?
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
President Joe Biden and his administration have enjoyed recent successes, including passage of the questionably-named Inflation Reduction Act. But Biden’s approval ratings have remained low and he is now drawing comparisons to former President Jimmy Carter, who endured inflation and foreign crises. Since your columnists are old enough to actually remember the 39th president, we examine the similarities and the impact of congressional action on the elections.
Biden recently signed the IRA, which supporters claim will lower prescription drug costs, fight global warming, raise taxes on millionaires and reduce the federal deficit. Detractors claim otherwise, also noting it will hire tens of thousands of additional IRS agents. This legislation will be a key piece of Democratic strategy to prevail in the November midterm elections. Will it work?
Pignanelli: “I mean, isn’t it almost Orwellian — how can you call it Inflation Reduction Act?” — Jonathan Karl, ABC News
Prior presidential administrations, when faced with the horror of continual price increases of consumer goods, responded with curious strategies. By executive order in 1971, Richard Nixon imposed mandatory “Wage and Price Controls.” Gerald Ford tried the 1974 “Whip Inflation Now” effort using WIN buttons to encourage less driving, waste and energy use. In 1978, Jimmy Carter announced the “Anti-Inflation Program” seeking voluntary commitments to wage and price standards. None succeeded and all three presidents were out of office within a few years.
The IRA legislation is the most recent variation of this approach. The bill does have important objectives regarding pharmaceutical costs, energy exploration and environmental programs. However, serious arguments abound, casting doubt about a positive influence on inflation. Further, any meritorious effects of the bill will not be felt for years.
Americans have grown accustomed to complicated federal legislation with clever names designed to appeal to them. But they look elsewhere to determine their personal position. If inflation is still an economic concern by Labor Day, the IRA will be disregarded by Americans in how they vote.
The one activity that remains inexpensive is searching the internet, which would have revealed to legislative sponsors the danger of trying to tackle inflation with feel good labels.
Webb: The actual impact of the legislation won’t be felt for many months or years, so Democrats will be running on wishful thinking for the next three months. More important will be how voters are feeling about inflation, crime, the immigration crisis, scary world affairs (Russia/Ukraine and China/Taiwan), energy shortages and the general economy. And, of course, Trump looms large, unfortunately.
Most Americans, myself included, can find a number of things to like in the legislation. I want cleaner air, fewer carbon emissions and less expensive prescription drugs. But it comes at the cost of additional massive federal spending. And I think it’s fantasy to believe that more IRS agents and a tax on wealthy people will pay for the many billions of dollars that will help subsidize clean energy. Count on it: Ten years from now the debt will be even more out of control and we’ll still be facing massive problems.
This spending is on top of the trillions of dollars thrown at a potpourri of programs in the last few years, which contributed to the inflation we’re suffering now. And a lot of that money hasn’t even been spent.
I’ve watched politics for 50 years and I have little faith that immense new spending on vast new federal programs will solve America’s problems. I’d rather rely on private enterprise, free markets and American ingenuity and innovation.
Biden is facing difficult issues that the country has not confronted in over 40 years including high inflation and perceived weakness in foreign affairs. Are the comparisons to the Carter presidency fair?
Pignanelli: Biden and Carter share many personal characteristics including decency, commitment to family, religious devotion, general compassion and difficulty in communicating confidence to Americans. Also, both presidents enjoyed successful legislative records (Carter: deregulation of airlines and trucking) that did not parlay into high approval ratings. There are differences. Carter was an outsider to Washington, D.C., and Biden is the consummate insider. But the Biden administration is well advised to study this predecessor to avoid the pitfalls that can plague even the most honorable of leaders.
Webb: The Biden economy isn’t quite as bad as Carter’s raging stagflation (high inflation plus high unemployment and a stagnant economy). Carter lost his second term bid when Ronald Reagan asked, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” The answer was clearly no.
Carter also suffered a disastrous foreign policy debacle when Iranian militants stormed the U.S. Embassy and took 66 Americans hostage for 444 days. Biden’s inept and bloody retreat from Afghanistan wasn’t quite as bad.
How will the new legislation, and Biden’s perception, impact the midterm elections in Utah?
Pignanelli: GOP candidates will highlight that the IRA provides an additional $78 billion to the IRS. This tactic, combined with Biden’s unpopularity, will motivate conservative voters.
Webb: Every Utah member of Congress voted against the Inflation Reduction Act and made persuasive arguments against it. Utah has suffered some of the highest gas prices and inflation in the nation. Biden has never been popular here and control of Congress is on the line. That’s why I expect GOP incumbents to win.
Will two dinosaurs, Biden and Trump, square off again in 2024?
Many of us wonder if Joe Biden and Donald Trump are getting too old for this. But we may have a dinosaur race in 2024
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
Despite big problems, both President Joseph Biden and former President Donald Trump have in some ways enjoyed a reasonably good August — so far. Both have terribly low approval ratings, but both have shown resiliency.
Trump may be in trouble with the U.S. Department of Justice, but he remains the most popular Republican and the favorite to win the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. Biden, meanwhile, has a majority of Democrats hoping he won’t seek r-election, but he has enjoyed a string of recent legislative wins.
Both Trump and Biden will break records for age if they run again in 2024. Why are these octogenarians dominating the presidential field? Can’t the nation do better?
Pignanelli: “We find (in our study) that people are happy to support older candidates in elections, but are less likely to approve of their performance in office.” — Jennifer Wolak, Damon Roberts, Political Behavior
Aging politicians are like old shoes — worn, comfortable and preferred if no easy alternative exists. (Elderly lobbyists do not enjoy similar deference.) Although unknown in the modern era, the events Americans are witnessing in the national political arena have deep historical precedent. From 1800 to the late 20th century, prior presidents and former nominees often haunted their parties’ nomination activities for one more chance.
Other dynamics are also at play. Both Trump and Biden were elected because of who they were not (Trump was not Hillary Clinton and the D.C. establishment, Biden was not Trump). Polls reveal most Americans want neither Trump nor Biden to run again but few identify replacements. The realignment of ideologies and demographics among the two major parties is still occurring, thereby hampering the breakout of new leaders. In this vacuum Biden and Trump are the de facto champions.
History is repeating the preference for old shoes by voters nervous about potentially ill-fitting substitutes.
Webb: It is depressing to think that these two dinosaurs may once again be the candidates for president in 2024. As an old dinosaur myself, I believe it’s time for them to slink off and allow a new generation of leaders to take over.
If Trump somehow managed to win, I would welcome him reversing course on Biden’s liberal policies. But I no longer trust his judgement, especially when it comes to world affairs. He lost my support when he damaged the Republican Party and the cause of conservatism by continuing to falsely claim (to this day) that the 2020 election was stolen.
We have entered an extremely perilous time in foreign affairs. Russia is at war with Ukraine and China threatens war with Taiwan. Both bluster about severe consequences and war expansion if the U.S. and its allies make the wrong moves. Without tough, but level-headed and thoughtful leadership, we could be facing World War III with nuclear weapons in the mix.
While Biden’s leadership in foreign affairs hotspots has been abysmal, especially his disastrous retreat from Afghanistan, Trump is far too erratic and impulsive to trust leading the world at this time. In these scary times, neither Trump or Biden can provide the leadership we need.
Politically, this is a time of great opportunity for Republicans. The House, Senate and the presidency (in 2024) are waiting to be taken. The only person who can mess up GOP chances for victory is Trump.
Rumors abound that Trump will announce his reelection bid even before the midterm elections in November. This despite pressure from GOP candidates who worry it would hurt their chances to take control of Congress. If Trump does announce soon, how will this impact Utah’s November elections, especially for the U.S. Senate?
Pignanelli: If Trump reveals before November, independent Senate candidate Evan McMullin will pounce fast. He will leverage the fear of a second Trump presidency, and the need for him to be in the Senate to push back, as fundraising and “get out the vote” tactics. Yet, McMullin benefits only if Sen. Mike Lee is unable to counter that the challenger’s actions again demonstrate a bend against conservative principles.
Down ballot Democrats may receive a slight bump from voters incentivized by an aggressive McMullin push. Regardless, the coming red wave in Utah will not be hampered by an early Trump declaration.
Webb: If Trump announces before November it will be proof that he doesn’t care at all about Republican candidates and what’s best for the party. He only cares about himself and staying continually in the spotlight. If the GOP does not win control of the Senate, it will be Trump’s fault for endorsing bad candidates.
Is there a chance that other candidates may try for the presidency regardless of Trump or Biden?
Pignanelli: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis possesses the fortitude to challenge Trump. Moderate Republican Govs. John Kasich (Ohio) and Larry Hogan (Maryland) may take the plunge. Democrats love to grumble about Biden, and no challenger has yet to step forward. But rumors are circulating about Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Webb: A number of Republicans will try to compete with Trump. Someone from the far left will likely challenge Biden. But Biden and Trump, unfortunately, are the odds-on favorites to win the nominations.
Only 7% of Americans have confidence in Congress. Are institutions failing us?
Americans have a general lack of faith in institutions. What’s the solution?
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
In this era of high inflation and political dysfunction, confidence in most of America’s largest institutions is at the lowest point ever, according to a recent Gallup survey.
Average confidence across all institutions is at a new low of 27%, compared to nearly 50% in 1979. It’s astounding that only 7% of Americans have a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in Congress. Only small business (68%) and the military (64%) enjoy the confidence of more than 50% of Americans.
This raises some important questions.
Why the general lack of confidence is America’s institutions — especially the presidency (23%), newspapers (16%), the criminal justice system (14%), big business (14%), television news (11%) and Congress (7%)? Even church/organized religion had only 31% confidence.
Pignanelli: “Things look too bureaucratized, too defensive of and protective of the organization itself. It isn’t good.” — Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal
For decades, calling someone a “Boy Scout” was a snarky compliment of virtue and wholesomeness. (This accolade was never directed at me, for obvious reasons.) But a multibillion-dollar class-action lawsuit alleging thousands suffered sexual abuse bankrupted the scouting organization and altered this positive perspective.
This summer, Americans witnessed the video revealing hundreds of well-armed police officers outside a classroom, awaiting instructions for 80 minutes, while fourth graders were slaughtered.
Reports of sexual abuse, and cover-up actions, were made against religious organizations other than the tragedies besetting the Catholic Church.
These are just recent examples of traditional bulwarks in our society that fell into scorn. Their downfall layers over the hyperpartisan sniping in national politics and federal government bloat. Consequently, confidence in even our most iconic institutions is disappearing. The common themes underscoring the distrust are perceptions the interests of an organization are prioritized over customers, adherents, citizens and the vulnerable.
The silver lining in the survey is the respect small business and the military enjoy from most Americans. This demonstrates our nation still prizes entrepreneurism, loyalty, courage, etc. We are not keen on organizations, institutions or companies that ignore these traits.
The solution to this crisis is a commitment to ideals and missions, not the entity itself. Then to be labeled its member (i.e. “Scout”) will be a true compliment.
Webb: Part of the abysmal confidence ratings is attributable to the economy, especially inflation and rising interest rates. Current conditions have a lot of people and small businesses upset and fearful of the future.
However, this trend has been going on for several years, even when the economy was booming, jobs were plentiful and standards of living were rising for most Americans. So it is something that’s pretty deep in the psyche of Americans.
I believe that concentration of power at the federal government level, in giant corporations, in big tech and big social media are a very large part of the confidence deficit. Citizens feel a lack of control. They feel powerless when dealing with these gigantic, bureaucratic institutions. Fraying family life also plays a role. Those are pretty tough obstacles to overcome.
Congress has only itself to blame for its worst-of-the-worst confidence rating. It’s the place where America’s biggest problems go to get buried in dysfunction and partisanship. The news media are a reflection of political partisanship and bias and thus don’t enjoy the confidence of the citizenry.
In general, do Utahns share this disdain toward America’s most important institutions?Pignanelli: Our local institutions usually perform well and enjoy greater confidence by residents. Utahns are among the most hard-working, ethical and compassionate people on the planet. They have little patience with inefficient behavior, especially “kicking the can.” While we are just not as demonstrative as others, frustration with national organizations exists.
Webb: Utah Foundation recently did a very interesting study on Utah’s “Social Capital Index.” It notes that social scientists affirm a long-term national decline in social capital — “the bonds between people and among networks.” Lack of confidence in major institutions, as outlined in the Gallup study, is a manifestation of the fraying of social capital.
However, the Utah Foundation study showed that in 2021, “Utah had the highest level of social capital in the nation.” Utah ranks well in civic engagement, social trust, community life, family life, social cohesion and a focus on future generations.
So, while Utahns no doubt share national opinions regarding a lack of confidence in major institutions, they are much more likely to have confidence in their neighborhood, community and state institutions.
Can Congress function effectively when only 7% of Americans have confidence in it?
Pignanelli: Americans tend to like their individual congressional representatives but hold distaste for the institution. But this abysmal rating is a new low and should give all concern. If our federal officials cannot foster credence, how can they rally the nation to overcome major problems? Time for a reset.
Webb: Congress (and presidents) have set themselves up for failure by falsely promising that they can solve every problem for every American from cradle to grave. They need to be far more modest and reduce expectations by sending most problems back to the states and communities where they can be addressed close to home, according to local conditions and desires, by mayors, city councils, county leaders, legislatures and governors.
Are Mike Lee and Evan McMullin really this close in the race for U.S. Senate?
Utah’s U.S. Senate race is making national and global news as Evan McMullin and Mike Lee get ready for November voting. What does McMullin’s independent candidacy status mean if he is elected?
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
The dog days of summer — and politics — are officially here. An unexpected political heat wave, the U.S. Senate race, is contributing to the sizzle. We’d prefer to lie down and pant in a cool spot under a shade tree, but as political meteorologists, we must stay on the job and provide an accurate forecast.
The Mike Lee/Evan McMullin Senate race is getting some national notice and polls show it is closer than many people expected. Are the surveys reading the voters accurately?
Pignanelli: “The difference between life and the movies is that a script has to make sense, and life doesn’t.” — Joseph Mankiewicz
Hollywood has distributed dozens of movies with plots of outsider candidates using quirky tactics to achieve high office. So Utahns can be excused for a surreal feeling of living in a cinematic environment when pondering the Senate race. Indeed, the strangeness of this contest has captured national and global attention.
This unusual fascination captured the imagination of many voters. Meanwhile, Lee was under assault from primary opponents for at least six months, while McMullin enjoyed a free pass. McMullin supporters publicly heaped praise for his lofty ideals (some comparing him to Abraham Lincoln) while disparaging Lee. Consequently, some surveys are predicting a close race.
However, those polls that survey “likely to vote” respondents (and not just those registered to vote) demonstrate a much larger margin between Lee and McMullin. Campaign veterans prefer such sound methodology. Thus, perceptions may be based more on hope by some in the media and political class.
The shroud of mystique surrounding this race will be yanked by the forces of reality. Even this happens in the movies.
Webb: This is obviously a crazy time in politics, and no politician should feel comfortable. McMullin has obviously touched a nerve with his anti-Donald Trump rhetoric and he demonstrated some finesse in winning the support of the Democratic Party.
But the challenge for McMullin is that this race is going to be nationalized as a referendum on Joe Biden and the mess the Democrats have made of the country. It’s not just about McMullin and Lee, or their personalities, or about Trump, or whether Lee has been too close to Trump.
In the cool autumn, when voters really begin to pay attention, the Senate election will be framed as an opportunity to turn things around, or continue to lurch toward even bigger government and more spending envisioned in the arch-liberal Democratic agenda.
Whether the U.S. Senate is controlled by liberal Democrats or conservative Republicans may be determined by one or two races, the Lee/McMullin race among them. A vote for Lee is a clear vote for Mitch McConnell taking control as Senate majority leader. It’s a vote for a more conservative future for the country.
A vote for McMullin is a vote for the unknown. He apparently has Republican roots, but he’s been warmly embraced by liberal Democrats, and he won’t commit to supporting the GOP agenda. A vote for McMullin is a vote for Chuck Schumer to continue to run the Senate.
To many mainstream conservatives, even those who don’t like Trump and aren’t totally comfortable with Lee, it’s still a pretty easy choice. Voting for McMullin could put a conservative resurgence in jeopardy.
Both supporters and detractors of McMullin are raising the issue of his refusal to caucus with Republicans or Democrats if elected. Some claim this is an advantage and others say it will hurt Utah. Is this a real issue?
Pignanelli: An element of the Utah psyche is a well-deserved antagonism towards the federal government. Despite these emotions, individuals, families and businesses depend upon a congressional delegation that can efficiently interact with federal agencies and Congress. This includes issues regarding immigration, regulations, appropriations, etc.
Regardless of intentions, someone who refuses to participate in a caucus will be deemed an outlier by leadership. McMullin is OK with such a result (“they can put me in the supply closet”). This is risky to Utahns wishing assistance from his office. Careless proposals to hamper congressional constituent services must be a significant election issue.
Webb: To be at all effective, McMullin would need to find a Senate home, formal or informal, with one of the parties. That’s what most other independents have done. McMullin is supported by Democrats, so aligning with Democrats would seem likely.
How will this strange race impact down ballot congressional and state elections?
Pignanelli: Those Utah voters still misty-eyed over McMullin in November will be available for other candidates to garner and should strategize accordingly. Without a candidate on the ballot for the U.S. Senate, Democrats are trying to minimize the resulting constraints on coordinating campaign activities.
Webb: The Senate race won’t have a big impact on other contests, but it can’t help Democrats to not even have a candidate at the top of the ticket.