Will we see any October surprises before Utah’s election day?

After the Lee-McMullin debate, what will influence voters going forward?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Congratulations! You’ve made it to the final stretch of the 2022 election season without going nuts. Most debates have concluded, ballots are in the mail and candidates are wary of any “October surprise.“

Of course, we have opinions on the latest developments.

The most anticipated televised debate hosted by the Utah Debate Commission was between incumbent Sen. Mike Lee and independent challenger Evan McMullin. This event followed the matchups in the four congressional districts. Did anything happen in those verbal exchanges, or the media coverage, that will change the trajectory of the elections? Are the debates even worthwhile?

Pignanelli: “If it’s necessary to join a caucus and get a committee assignment, I’ll do it.” — U.S. Sen. Angus King (Maine, independent)  

The much-hyped debate did not disappoint in substance and entertainment because no punches were pulled. The questions were structured such that Lee was forced to defend his record on many policy issues — which is appropriate. But the Utah Debate Commission committed an inexcusable error of ignoring the issue that captured national media attention — can McMullin adequately represent Utah when not caucusing with a major national party? History documents the difficulty.

In 1953 Sen. Wayne Morse of Oregon left his Republican caucus to become an independent, leaving a 48-47-1 split in the body. He was stripped of important committee assignments and abandoned to the political wilderness. Two years later he joined the Democratic caucus.

McMullin claims his independent status will make Utah the most powerful state in the union. But when a Utah family or business needs help on immigration, regulatory or other federal matters, lofty speeches will be of no assist. Interaction with the mammoth federal government requires officials plugged into the system. Utah voters deserved a deep analysis from both candidates on this critical item and were deprived.

Overall, the federal office debates did not move the needle in the races. But these events remain important functions in the electoral process.

Webb: The debates were worthwhile and engaging. They didn’t make or break any campaign, but it is helpful to see the candidates side-by-side answering tough questions. To have a chance at winning, each challenger to the incumbent Republicans needed to vastly exceed expectations with a clear victory. They obviously didn’t come close. 

The Lee-McMullin debate was entertaining, and both candidates were articulate. But Lee was the better debater, as he should be after his years in politics. McMullin’s harsh attacks didn’t rattle Lee, who presented himself as what he is — a staunch conservative who fights for conservative causes and for the Constitution as he interprets it.

McMullin hammered on Lee’s activities surrounding the Jan. 6 protest and election outcome, but didn’t land any telling blows or change many minds. His performance wasn’t good enough to beat Lee, who will benefit from the national Republican surge in the last few weeks of the election. The McMullin path to victory — a coalition of nearly all Democrats, plus some moderate Republicans and independents — looked good on paper, but it’s not working out. Perhaps Mitt Romney could do it — and he might need to if he can’t get the GOP nomination in two years.

What is the impact of President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump on the midterm races nationally and locally?

Pignanelli: Other than McMullin’s jabs at Lee for text messages with White House staff after the election, Trump is a nonentity in the Utah campaign season. Further, Utahns are not buying fraudulent election conspiracies, at least in our state. But, throughout the country, Trump still has a stronghold in certain pockets. Trump benefits from a red wave because many of his endorsements will be elected.

What is surprising is how few local candidates have taken advantage of Biden’s unpopularity in Utah. Also, there are almost no areas in the nation where Biden is helpful to candidates — which creates a problem for him in any reelection effort.

Webb: It is rather telling that the two most likely presidential nominees in 2024 are not very popular with a majority of voters in this country. Democrats in close races don’t want Biden anywhere near. It’s more complicated with Trump because Republican candidates badly need his base. But he carries several tons of baggage and hurts with moderate and independent voters. It’s definitely time for Biden and Trump to fade into the sunset and let the next generation take over.

Pignanelli: Economic issues are unlikely to change before mid-November. Early voting dampens the effect of October surprises. However, an international incident or massive act of violence could change the trajectory of late voters leading to election day, affecting outcomes.

Webb: We’re seeing in the last weeks of the election that Republican issues — inflation, especially gas prices, high interest rates, crime and border chaos are more important to voters than Democratic issues like Trump, Jan. 6 and abortion. Voter sentiment is breaking for Republicans just at the right time.

Do endorsements really matter in the U.S. Senate race?

Both Evan McMullin and Mike Lee have been endorsed by politicians around Utah and the country — but will they make a difference in the outcome?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

The U.S. Senate race between incumbent Mike Lee and challenger Evan McMullin continues to generate arguments among politicos as to campaign strategy. The current debate is whether the endorsements from famous politicians and others are meaningless or helpful in this contest. Since we seem to have opinions (often wrong) on most everything, we offer our perspectives.

Former Vice President Mike Pence, Utah’s congressional delegation (minus Sen. Mitt Romney) and many local elected Republicans have endorsed Lee. Former Congressman Ben McAdams, Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson, Former National Democratic Chairman Howard Dean, former National Republican Chairman Michael Steele, and a lot of local folks, advocate for McMullin. The dueling endorsements are significant, but will they make a difference?

Pignanelli: “I think celebrity endorsements hurt politicians.” — Kid Rock

Campaign endorsements are usually considered similar to the parsley garnish on a dinner plate. They beautify the dining presentment yet are seldom consumed and enjoyed. But the traditional perspective may be suspended in the current unusual election season.

Lee, while ahead in most polls, is taking nothing for granted among the undecided portions of the Republican base. Thus the endorsements from Pence and local elected officials to deflect attacks by McMullin. They provide comfort to moderate Republicans that Lee is important to their agenda.

Utah Democrats would not have thrown their support to McMullin without early endorsements from McAdams and Wilson. Dean helps solidify lefty voters but could antagonize others. Also, numerous self-categorized Republicans submitted pro-McMullin editorials. But an inability to garner high profile local GOP officials reveals a weakness in McMullin’s coalition and magnifies his continuing lack of definition. These omissions are amplified by the advertisements Lee is broadcasting with the various mayors supporting him.

In 2022, endorsements are more than just decorating the dinner, but likely adding protein to solidify Lee’s lead.

Webb: Endorsements don’t make or break a candidacy, but they can help — or hurt if a candidate can’t get any good ones. For Utah voters, Lee has the more impressive set of endorsements at this point. He is already strong with conservative voters, and Pence helps with mainstream Republicans, along with Utah’s two more moderate members of Congress, John Curtis and Blake Moore.

Michael Steele, the anti-Trump Republican, is a nice endorsement for McMullin, but Steele isn’t well known enough in Utah to make much difference.

Lee also has the endorsements of his U.S. Senate Republican colleagues — except one. The one glaring nonendorser is Utah junior Sen. Romney, who said he’s friends with both candidates so he’s not going to endorse either. Chalk that up as a victory for McMullin, because the moderate Romney endorsing Lee would be very damaging to McMullin, as he is trying hard to woo and win Romney voters. It’s rather remarkable to be endorsed by every GOP senator except your teammate in your own state. I don’t know which senator should be more embarrassed.

I imagine the Romney/Lee relationship right now matches late autumn weather — it’s rather frosty. I doubt Lee will be in a big hurry to endorse Romney two years from now when Romney may be locked in a tough primary battle with a high-profile Republican like Attorney General Sean Reyes. Lee may say, “Well, I’m friends with both these guys, so I’m not going to endorse.” Or, he might say, “I’m friends with both these guys, but I’m much tighter with Sean, so I endorse him.”

When are endorsements effective, or pointless, in elections?

Pignanelli: Voters are rarely persuaded by a high-profile politician or celebrity offering a bland expression of support. Of course, exceptions abound. Statements of affection for a candidate (especially in legislative and municipal races) by well-known community activists, small business owners, popular teachers, ecumenical leaders, etc. can be persuasive. Citizens relate to these individuals on a personal level and value their opinion.

A very notable exception occurred over two election seasons leading to 1990 when Democrats almost achieved a majority in the Legislature. These victories are partially attributed to the endorsements the candidates received from then Salt Lake City Mayor Palmer DePaulis, who was beloved statewide as an honest, effective leader steeped in Utah values. (Palmer, the epitome of humility, dismisses such deserved recognition.)

Webb: Endorsements can help a candidate who is not well known, especially if the endorsements are used effectively to target specific voter segments. An endorsement from someone you know well, in your own neighborhood, for example, can be helpful.

Pignanelli: Open support of an incumbent U.S. senator is rarely a questionable action. If Lee prevails by a solid margin, inquiries will teem as to why Democrats pursued a strategy that delivered no benefit and likely harmed their prospects in future years.

Webb: If McMullin wins (not likely), he won’t be punishing those who endorsed Lee. He’ll be working hard to win their support for the next election. If Lee wins (more likely), he could create problems for Sen. Romney, as noted above.

Can we trust the polling in Utah’s U.S. Senate race?

Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

The U.S. Senate race between Sen. Mike Lee and Evan McMullin is a rough-and-tumble slugfest. Campaign activities are generating arguments among politicos over polling, negative ads, superPACs and all the other campaign stuff hacks like us enjoy. We share the fun.

Both campaigns have revealed results of internal polling to show their candidate ahead. The Utah Debate Commission/Lighthouse Research survey showed Lee ahead 48%-37% with 5% undecided. Last week’s Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll added fuel to the fire, showing the race essentially tied (Lee 36%, McMullin 34%, 16% undecided). What does this polling puzzle say about the race?

Pignanelli: “Don’t worry about polls, but if you do, don’t admit it.” — Rosalynn Carter  

Utah’s Senate race, already the most peculiar in an abnormal midterm election season filled with atypical contests, is now more unusual. The disparity in polling is fostering heated quarrels about whether the methodology used is capturing the preference of the general population or those most likely to vote. This is important as the latter category will select the next senator.

Campaign veterans are distilling the distinction. Some survey organizations are beginning with essentially the phonebook to develop a list of respondents, then asking whether they are likely to vote. (Unfortunately, good intentions do not always remain through election day.) Other entities are using databases of citizens with a voting history to construct a call list and asking the likely to vote question. The conjuncture in the former method, by not filtering for truly likely voters, is providing a snapshot of the general population and not an accurate reflection of individuals following the race who will cast a ballot.

Experienced local politicos are suggesting surveys initiated with a list of determined likely voters show Lee ahead with a comfortable margin. Furthermore, the well-respected Nate Silver and his website of FiveThirtyEight.com analyzes surveys conducted in every federal race in the country. Based on a scrutiny of the polls in the Utah race (i.e. quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean) they project Lee has a 93% chance of winning.

The Senate race — a weird outlier — could be influential for future campaigns and how they poll.

Webb: Properly conducted survey research is an accurate reflection of the attitudes of those surveyed at a snapshot in time. But it’s very difficult to predict voting outcomes because it’s hard to survey, in the correct demographic proportions, people who will actually vote.

Polling in the last few elections has underestimated the strength of many Republican candidates. In 2020, for example, President Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump was closer than the polls indicated. And the number of House seats picked up by Republicans was a big surprise.

Even The New York Times recently published a lengthy story by its political polling guru admitting that many polls don’t accurately reflect the turnout of conservative “Trump voters.”

Most pollsters try hard to be accurate. They’ve made adjustments to find more Trump voters. But it’s difficult to get conservative Republicans to participate in polling. We’re in a very divisive, skeptical time, and many conservatives don’t trust pollsters or the media. Most people only answer cellphones when the caller is known, and if they do answer and it’s a polling firm, most hang up. It’s also hard to get Trump voters to participate in online survey panels. When pollsters know a demographic group is underrepresented, they “weight” the results to make up for it. But accuracy remains difficult. 

All of this leads me to believe that Republicans, including Lee, will do at least a little better than is indicated by polling. Certainly, if a Republican is 20 points behind, he or she is going to lose. But if the race is close, it might make sense to give the Republican candidate a couple extra percentage points.

Will I be right? We’ll see in a little over five weeks. 

Lee and McMullin are both supported by well-funded super PACs (independent expenditure political committees). These entities are running negative advertising, as are each of the campaigns. Who will the attacks help or hurt?

Pignanelli: This Senate race confirms superPACs spend millions of dollars on awful ads that fail to resonate because of anemic messaging. Issues exist that could be exploited with creative and even humor-oriented commercials. McMullin is especially vulnerable to such, who has yet to establish an identity other than he is not Mike Lee.

Webb: I would ignore the attack ads and vote on the basics of this race: Lee is a conservative Republican who votes accordingly and who has been a reliable Trump supporter. What you see is what you get. McMullin is an independent who is strongly supported by Democrats and who has made a career of attacking Trump and those who support him. On key issues, he is more likely to vote with Democrats than with Republicans and his election could ensure Democratic control of the Senate.

Is there a possibility the trajectory of this race could change before Election Day?

Pignanelli: Deeper legal trouble for Trump could move some undecided for McMullin. Conversely, additional economic worries will bolster a red wave in Utah that helps Lee.

Webb: Anything can happen, but I don’t expect any dramatic October surprise. Lee has more money to spend, so expect his advertising and outreach to pick up significantly in the days ahead. McMullin will try to keep pace. 

Opinion: The Great Salt Lake, a new Utah flag, abortion debates — what will affect midterms most?

Should Utah get a flag redesign? Will abortion matter to Utah voters? Are we utilizing the Great Salt Lake?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Plenty of hot issues face voters and policymakers as the 2022 election nears and as lawmakers prepare for the 2023 legislative session. Here are a few we are watching. 

The Great Salt Lake is a world famous natural feature, which explains the national and international media attention on its current decline. Also, state officials are budgeting hundreds of millions of dollars to increase water levels in the lake. Sen. Mitt Romney and our congressional delegation are seeking federal funding. Is all this money well spent? Can the state really do anything to mitigate the impact of drought and climate change on the lake? 

Pignanelli: “That which lies nearest is best.” — Alfred Lambourne, Our Inland Sea, 1887  

My fellow native Utahns and I possess a fierce pride in the state’s many renown diverse natural treasures. Thus, to discover the most recognizable feature — the Great Salt Lake — is in jeopardy shakes us to the core.

This remnant from ancient Lake Bonneville is critical to our modern lifestyle. Thankfully state officials, with Speaker Brad Wilson at the helm, are undertaking measures to prevent a potential catastrophe. Contemporaneously, they are instructing Utahns that future economic growth depends upon actions reflecting this is the second most arid state and adjusting water consumption accordingly.

Further, obliteration of the lake will be a calamity for the western United States. So federal funds to prevent this natural disaster are appropriate expenditures.

Although difficulties abound, we will overcome this challenge. Wilson and other leaders deserve commendations for illustrating our wonderful lake is more than just a big blue blob on the map.

Webb: The leadership and enthusiasm of top Utah politicians to save the Great Salt Lake is welcome and long overdue. We have this gigantic salty lake with unique characteristics at our doorstep. When was the last time you went to the lake to swim, picnic, camp or hike? It has been an underutilized resource for a hundred years or more. It has not been successfully developed or promoted as a recreational or tourism asset.

Obviously, the lake has many challenges and that’s why development hasn’t happened. Shoreline fluctuations, especially, make investment difficult. But I don’t think we’ve had Utah’s best thinkers turn their advanced technology, innovation and ingenuity to the lake. We need to do it.

Years ago, I regularly took Scout groups to the lake and to Antelope Island. The views, serenity and fun of bobbing in the salty water was great fun. It was minutes away from Salt Lake City, but seemed a world away. Let’s save the lake and turn it into a great asset.

The Legislature wants a new state flag. A flag task force is allowing Utahns to view and vote on the semifinalists at: https://flag.utah.gov/final-flag-designs. The question is: Do we really need a new flag? And are any of the 20 semifinalists better than the old one? Could this be a controversial issue when the Legislature makes the final decision next year?

Pignanelli: Utah would not exist without our unique heritage. From the Indigenous peoples to the current 21st century residents, regardless of religious affiliation we are who we are because of what happened in 1847. The proposed flags do not reference that year (the current flag does).

Utilizing the intriguing history of the beehive, ranging from the masthead of this paper to our state symbol, helps the effort. Yet, the state flag should contain a direct respectful acknowledgment of the incredible events 173 years ago that influenced our common culture. Hopefully, lawmakers include such in the final version.

Webb: I really haven’t paid much attention to the flag competition. I kind of like the old flag. But then I’m an old, boring guy. I couldn’t judge what would make a cool, new flag. I wouldn’t recognize it even if I saw it.

The issue of abortion continues to partly define the 2022 midterm election. In Utah, 24 Utah House members told abortion providers they must comply with Utah’s new law, or face consequences, even though the law is under review in the courts. At the national level, Sen. Lindsey Graham introduced a bill making abortion illegal, with some exceptions, after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Will this issue have a big impact on the election in Utah and nationally?

Pignanelli: Voter reactions to the Supreme Court decision are locked in for the immediate future, so recent activities will have little effect on local elections. However, lawmakers are serving fair warning of future legislation on this issue. Clarification on many collateral questions is expected.

Webb: When we’re talking about the lives of unborn babies, the most defenseless humans of all, in the context of the rights of women to make medical decisions with their doctors, the abortion issue is obviously very emotional and important. It motivates some voters on both sides to go to the polls and vote for candidates who reflect their views.

But for most voters, other issues, like jobs, inflation and the quality of candidates, are more germane in their lives and will determine how they vote. Abortion isn’t a pressing issue in Utah because most Utah voters are pro-life, and so are their elected officials and candidates.

Does Utah have its own brand of conservatism?

How did Utah elect two senators, Lee and Romney, with very different brands of conservatism? What kind of conservatives are Utahns?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

The state of Utah embodies some fascinating political contrasts on display this election season. We are a conservative state, but we tend toward mainstream conservatism. We voted for former President Donald Trump, but we don’t love Trump. We do have many unflinching far-right conservatives, but they don’t dominate the state. We explore these interesting dynamics. 

Utah’s two senators, Mike Lee and Mitt Romney, represent different wings of the Republican Party. How can the state elect senators with such different approaches to politics?

Pignanelli: “Utah conservatism is a reminder to the American right of its more expansive, optimistic past. It also offers a warning of where Republicans’ current pessimistic course may lead.” — The Economist  

As an Italian-Irish Catholic native Utahn, I possess the advantage of making public statements that my friends of the predominant faith cannot. So here it goes. Pragmatic and compassionate elements of conservatism in this state is a direct influence from The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

Most local Republicans trust classic conservatism ideals of the free exchange of capital and labor (which now include expression of ideas). In Utah, these principles are enhanced with religious convictions that resulted in passage of the anti-discrimination amendments, acceptance of refugees and the critical compact on immigration.

Lee and Romney adhere to these ideologies. But the differences are of style. Romney voted with Trump more than Lee, but the senior senator is publicly supportive of the former president.

Polls indicate most Republicans prefer Lee over Romney. Except those who identify themselves as very active Latter-day Saints like Romney. These differences may be explained by the Trump factor, which will disappear when the former president does.

Fortunately for all Utahns, what made our state great has an important impact on political deliberations.

Webb: Most Utah Republicans, with quite a few exceptions, want their party to be a big-tent party as envisioned by conservative icon Ronald Reagan. So there is plenty of room in the party for both Mike Lee and Mitt Romney.

Personally, I find things to like and dislike about both senators. It has driven me a little crazy to watch Lee oppose the SB54/Count My Vote effort, which has opened the party nominating system to all Republicans instead of an exclusive few. And I’ve found Romney’s obsession with Trump, voting twice to remove him from office via the impeachment process, to be unfortunate and very divisive within the party. But I also like many things about both senators, including their battles against left-wing legislation that I think will harm the country.

So I think it’s quite natural for Utahns to elect two senators with rather different political philosophies. Neither of them is hugely popular within certain constituencies. Both need to work on their approval ratings. And that’s OK. I respect politicians who use their political capital to do hard things even when it’s not popular (and even when I disagree). 

Utah’s governor is a bona fide moderate. The Legislature is more conservative, although GOP legislative leadership is not right wing. What does this tell us about Utah politics?

Pignanelli: Grumbling about the state Legislature is a Utah pastime. Unfortunately, what is overlooked is that the legislative branch is the purest form of representative democracy in the country. When lawmakers make statements or sponsor bills deemed problematic, usually such are in direct response to constituents (and usually activists in either party). Further, the media loves to cover those officials pushing controversial items. Always ignored are the facts that Utah is well managed and securely financed because of the Legislature.

Webb: I’ve written previously that many years ago, when I was political editor at the Deseret News, I interviewed William Rees-Mogg, a distinguished British citizen who was editor of The Times in London and a member of the House of Lords. He was on a trip across America, writing a series of columns about American politics and culture in various regions. He was a brilliant and incisive observer, analyst and writer.

I will always remember him telling me that he detected in Utah a different kind of conservatism that he found rather refreshing. He said it was a responsible, optimistic, forward-looking conservatism, not an angry, bitter, conspiratorial brand of conservatism he found in some states and regions.

I think that positive sort of conservatism is embodied in our governor and in our Legislature. They serve Utah very well. Utah’s pragmatic and compassionate brand of conservatism is why Democrats have been unable to gain a foothold for nearly 40 years.

Two of Utah’s U.S. House members are rather moderate, while two others are strong conservatives. Is the political makeup of their districts the reason for these differences?  

Pignanelli: Districts 1 and 3 are perceived the most conservative, yet produced members of Congress thought to be more moderate than their colleagues. But the reality is different. As with the dynamics described with the Utah’s U.S. senators, Blake Moore and John Curtis subscribe to the same conservative principles as Chris Stewart and Burgess Owens. But they just exude a different flavor expressing them.

Webb: All of Utah’s congressional districts are quite conservative, and Utah’s four members of Congress can fit within the Utah GOP big tent.

Foxley & Pignanelli Summer 2022 Newsletter

A user-friendly guide to the 2022 midterm election

Will the Mar-a-Lago documents or another Biden gaffe cause more mayhem this election season? Get a recap on everything you need to know before you vote

By  Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Pignanelli & Webb: Labor Day weekend was the unofficial kickoff to the 2022 midterm election’s sprint down the straightaway. Americans and Utahns will be wooed and bombarded in the next 60 days by candidates and super PACs. Because this is an unusual midterm election, we offer a primer about what readers should watch for and consider.

External trends and perceptions. The conventional wisdom was that inflation and gas prices will drive electoral preferences this year. Statistically, both are dropping. But if by mid-October the perception persists that we are still in an inflationary recession, the impact will be felt, and it won’t be good for Democrats.

Voter instincts on crime, student debt forgiveness, cultural shifts and weather patterns/climate change could be huge factors nationally, but also in certain Utah contests.

The abortion initiative in Kansas this summer instructed politicos that extreme positions on the issue are not popular. So inflammatory rhetoric or lack of it, will also influence elections. Politicians and parties that overreach get punished. Out-of-control immigration at the southern border will also be an election issue.

Technical details. Utah voters and candidates need to remember that mail-in ballots will be sent in mid-October. Further, there is no straight ticket voting. Both measures allow for more fluidity by voters and a little less certainty by prognosticators.

The Utah U.S. senate race. Independent candidate Evan McMullin needs a coalition of Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans to win. It’s a difficult trick to pull off. He will need to readjust his focus to attract persuadable Republicans. Readers can expect an aggressive appeal by McMullin to this constituency. Of course, incumbent Sen. Mike Lee will be spending millions to remind Utah’s dominant Republicans that he is one, and McMullin is not.

Normally, a Utah Senate contest would receive little attention outside of the state. But McMullin’s fundraising and polling performances have captured the interest of observers across the country. Utah airwaves will be blitzed by national organizations from both sides. Much will depend on how well Lee nationalizes the race and convinces Republicans they need to reelect him to give Republicans a chance to win control of the Senate.

Regardless of the outcome, if McMullin exceeds expectations in the next two months, you may see this model of an independent candidate in elections elsewhere in the country, and more in Utah.

Salt Lake County Council. The state’s largest county is definitely purple, with a Democratic mayor and GOP-controlled council. So the matchup between incumbent Republican businessmen Richard Snelgrove and physician and former state lawmaker Suzanne Harrison will reveal which issues and positions drive the outcome. This will set the table for the 2024 battles.

Write-in contests. Yes, we are watching this Davis County legislative race. Rep. Steve Handy is a popular moderate Davis County Republican who has led legislative efforts on clean air, technology and other issues. So the Utah political world was shocked when he lost his convention battle to newcomer Trevor Lee. (Handy admits it was silly of him not to obtain signatures to obtain a position on the primary ballot.)

Late last month, Handy announced a write-in campaign for the general election. Normally such an effort would be readily dismissed. However, Handy is a well-known incumbent and is garnering support and financing from high-profile individuals and various organizations. And there isn’t a Democrat on the ballot.

This strange contest could be a true determinant of preferences by the suburban GOP. Handy is a moderate and Trevor Lee is a hardline conservative. Write-in campaigns are extremely difficult, so if Handy performs beyond expectations, expect to hear more about this race — nationally and locally.

Meanwhile, another significant write-in campaign could occur in far northern Utah. Republican Rep. Joel Ferry has been appointed director of the Department of Natural Resources, but Republicans are hoping his name can stay on the ballot so they can appoint a legislative replacement after the election. Democrats are seeking a court order to remove him from the ballot. Such a serious judicial action would leave only a Democratic candidate and possible GOP write-ins. 

State school board. Candidates now run as political party members. How they campaign will be instructive as to educational issues that will confront public education and the Legislature.

U.S. House of Representatives. The Republican performance metrics in all four Congressional districts suggest these races will be called early. The real contests for these candidates were the primary challenges. So how they campaign in the general election could be a strategy to diminish future interparty contests.

Utah Legislature. There are a handful of swing districts north of Utah County on the Wasatch Front. Often, these results can be predicted by the external forces of the election season. However, shrewd candidates of both political parties who focus hard on unique local issues can prevail.

The October surprise. No American election worth its salt can be complete without some bombshell in the weeks or days preceding the election. Heaven only knows what that will be in 2022. Revelations about the documents at the Trump residence or another awkward gaffe by Biden could change dynamics. The way the year has been trending, visits from aliens from outer space is probable. That might make a good closing message: “Vote for me to fight off the aliens!”

Most of all, please enjoy the ride.

How much will student loan forgiveness impact upcoming elections?

President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan will likely divide voters

By  Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Every so often, a surprise issue hits the political arena that unexpectedly changes the trajectory of elections.

In the early 1990s, the House Post Office scandal (yes, we’re so old we remember it) helped power a GOP takeover of Congress after 40 years of Democratic dominance. A series of scandals led to the Democrats retaking control in 2006. Responses to Obamacare and bailouts transformed the House in 2010. We explore the potential of similar occurrences this election season.

Does the student loan forgiveness order issued by President Joe Biden have the potential to alter the 2022 midterm elections nationally and locally?

Pignanelli: “I would get my student loans, get money, register and never really go. It was a system I thought would somehow pan out.” — Ray Romano 

As an act of generosity and brevity, I will refrain from adding a long winded diatribe to the expanding pool of opinion on this matter. (I spent years cleaning toilets, cleaning buildings and working other manual labors to reduce the loan amounts ultimately obtained, and paid back, for law school. Thus, I do have a perspective.)

The student loan forgiveness will affect voters’ deliberations. The matter is easily understood as either a needed or unjust benefit, depending on one’s personal experiences. There are no nuances. Republicans are already running ads illustrating the unfairness to blue-collar Americans. This explains why Democrats in swing states are separating themselves from the president on this.

Early polling demonstrates that loan forgiveness is popular with younger Americans (who need incentives to vote) and unpopular with those over 50 (who love to vote).  

The loan forgiveness will not be an issue identified in polling as a top priority for voters, but it will be on their minds as they finalize their decisions in the next several weeks.

In local swing districts, candidates with a younger population will include support in their messaging. Conversely, regions with an older population will prompt some candidates to openly criticize the program.

This dispute is relevant in a personal way to almost everyone, and thereby inflames emotions. It certainly brought back memories of a simpler, and grungier, time for me.

Webb: Biden’s massive loan cancellation program obviously cuts both ways. College debtors will love it. People who paid off their loans or didn’t go to college will resent it. Conservatives deride the program as forcing hard-working truck drivers and plumbers to pay the debt of unemployed snobs who got degrees in gender studies. 

Even House Speaker Nancy Pelosi a short time ago said the president didn’t have authority to unilaterally cancel debt. Other clear-thinking Democrats have said the $300 billion program will exacerbate inflation and is unfair to future borrowers who won’t get their debt forgiven. You got your loan yesterday, you win. You get your loan tomorrow, you lose. Unfairness built right in.

My biggest concern is the cumulative effect of all the government subsidies, bailouts and handouts of the last few years. The New York Times reported: “Stimulus bills approved by Congress beginning in 2020 unleashed the largest flood of federal money into the United States economy in recorded history. Roughly $5 trillion went to households, mom-and-pop shops, restaurants, airlines, hospitals, local governments, schools and other institutions around the country. ...” That’s not counting the infrastructure legislation that added another $1.2 trillion. The loan forgiveness program will add at least $300 billion.

Much of this, of course, is above and beyond the regular, ongoing federal spending. And can you imagine how much worse it would be if Biden and the Democrats had passed ALL of the programs they proposed? There were trillions more in the Build Back Better and American Families Plan legislation.

Keep that in mind when you vote in November.

At least Republicans in the U.S. Senate were able to trim down some of these massive programs. But spending has still been so high it’s not even fathomable. Politicians talk about a trillion dollars like it’s nothing. Free money to be printed or borrowed with no consequence. But all the spending, so far, has produced a 40-year inflation peak, high interest rates, a housing sales collapse and a major stock market decline.

Does the student loan debate add to voter enthusiasm being generated by inflation, the Dobbs abortion decision and the FBI raid at Mar-a-Lago?

Pignanelli: Inflation and gas prices were the significant energy behind the red wave. But fallout from the abortion decision is impacting several demographic groups, moving the needle in swing congressional districts. Clever messaging on the loan debate may again realign these volatile voters. 

Left of center constituencies will be more comfortable casting a ballot for Democrats. But the matter will inflame the typical Trump voter. So once again the battleground is in suburbia.