NEWS & EVENTS
Are young Latter-day Saints leaning more liberal?
Donald Trump alienated many young Latter-day Saints, but these roaming voters won’t necessarily flock to Democrats
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
Utah is a great place to live, work and raise a family. But everyone agrees that it has interesting dynamics. In some ways, it’s unlike anywhere else in the country or world. We offer commentary on a few trends that various experts believe are occurring in the state.
Ryan Burge, a professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University, conducted an exhaustive survey of Americans’ political preferences. A section of respondents were members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. He believes the data documents that younger church members are significantly less conservative than older adherents. Other experts provide similar conclusions. Is such a shift occurring, and what are the ramifications?
Pignanelli: ”I don’t think you can overstate how offensive the GOP’s unabashed embrace of Donald Trump (and all that entailed) was to a lot of Latter-day Saints, especially younger ones.” — McKay Coppins, The Atlantic
An absolute rock-solid currency is the decency inherent in church members. This wonderful trait is exhibited daily, throughout the world, in multiple activities. Consequently, these impressive characteristics percolate in political deliberations. Whether originating from the left or right, extreme harsh rhetoric, accompanied by disrespect to others, is unsettling to the Latter-day Saint faithful — particularly those under 40 years old.
This verdict is more than theoretical musing. Independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin garnered 21.3% of Utahns voting in 2016 because many in the state could not stomach the nastiness exhibited by the Republican nominee Donald Trump (and were unhappy with Hillary Clinton’s harsh characterization of her detractors). Conversely, Gov. Spencer Cox fits the profile of what these millennial and Generation Z citizens want from their politicians, which bodes well for his future. While data from various sources illustrate this trend, it does not guarantee automatic gains for Democrats. The left will need to adjust messaging to capture these roaming voters.
This begs the question of convention delegates in both parties. The extreme views of these activists do not sit well with this incoming cohort into the church. Whether in Utah, or other parts of the country, candidates who understand the decency of Latter-day Saint constituents will attract their support.
Webb: Most people have heard the quote attributed to Winston Churchill (and various others) that anyone under 30 who is not a liberal has no heart, and anyone over 30 who is not a conservative has no brains. There is some truth to that adage. It seems every young generation is liberal, and experts predict they will turn the country more liberal as they age. But it usually doesn’t happen.
Most young people are idealistic, as they should be. They are the product of an education system that leans left and they wish to create a society that is more inclusive, more just, more equitable and more prosperous for all.
They have been taught that the fastest and simplest path to achieve their vision of the ideal society is through government. Pass mandates and provide money to solve the nation’s myriad problems.
Certainly, governments at all levels have important roles to play, but many people eventually reach the conclusion that answers to society’s problems must come mostly from the bottom up, from individuals, families, churches and voluntary associations, rather than from top-down government. At that point, many people become more conservative in their political leanings.
They conclude that while government can do a lot of good things, it can’t deliver an ideal world. A better world has to come from individual responsibility, integrity, morality and family strength. It requires changed hearts, and government isn’t great at changing hearts.
I don’t blame young people from recoiling at Trump. As a human being, he’s quite disgusting, even if you like his policies. He’s everything good parents teach their children not to be.
Because of Utah’s dynamic economy, Americans have been relocating to the Beehive State for decades. In fact, last year, immigration numbers were larger than Utahns who arrived here by birth. Will such inflows impact political deliberations?
Pignanelli: For years, a handful of politicos have been predicting the continuing exodus of Californians and other Americans from their blue state origins will transform from red to purple Utah’s political hue. While such dynamics contributed to changes in Park City and Salt Lake City, only generations of continued massive growth from outsiders can make a serious dent in statewide elections. The more realistic — but unlikely — potential is if the Republican Party fails to heed changing internal demographics and Democrats respond accordingly.
Webb: Utah embodies a more practical, mainstream conservatism than the deep south, but isn’t in any danger of turning blue.
The bottom line. Will Utah County ever elect a Democrat or will Salt Lake City ever elect a Republican?
Pignanelli: Not during the ever-decreasing lifespans of LaVarr and me.
Webb: Sometimes we talk about the nation’s political divide, in geographic terms, as the liberal coastal states vs. the fly-over, heartland states. But that’s not really accurate. The actual ideological divides, geographically, are between the big cities, the suburbs and the rural areas. Utah and Idaho are certainly heartland states, but Salt Lake City and Boise are about as liberal as any big city in the country. Thus, no danger of electing a Republican SLC mayor, or a Democratic Utah County commissioner.
What does DeSantis need from Utah?
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ recent visit to Utah sets the stage for his presidential campaign
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
Utah Republicans are making headlines locally and nationally. We explore what it all means.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was the keynote speaker at the April 22 State Republican Organizing Convention. This event garnered coast-to-coast media coverage. Why did the well-known contender for the presidency make a stop in Utah, and what does it mean for our state?
Pignanelli: “The only condition (for my marriage ceremony in Disney World) … was no Mickey Mouse or Donald Duck in our wedding photos.” — Ron DeSantis
Republican activists should thank state Sens. Todd Weiler, Dan McCay and Mike McKell for recruiting almost 100 Utah officials to express public support for DeSantis after the 2022 elections. This famous action prompted his visit, especially because the Florida governor needs love from the Beehive State.
Recently, DeSantis offered a much-criticized speech at Liberty College and endured a humiliating revelation in Washington, D.C., that many in the Florida congressional delegation are supporting Donald Trump. Despite the protesters outside the UVU convention hall, the warm embrace of Utah delegates was essential to his national ambitions. Having watched the speech on livestream, I can attest DeSantis was technically efficient in listing accomplishments as governor while occasionally mentioning the national founders. But additional inspiration is required for a successful campaign.
DeSantis’ pilgrimage to Utah elevates the local GOP as an important factor for those seeking to dislodge Trump. Thus, a parade of famous politicians (i.e. former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Tim Scott, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and others) will soon arrive to lavish public praise upon Utah for our excellent management, friendly residents and beautiful surroundings.
So, here is a warranted shoutout to Weiler, McCay and McKell for playing state ambassadors.
Webb: It was a good idea to invite DeSantis and give Utahns an opportunity to size him up. He appears to be the only viable challenger to former President Donald Trump, the clear frontrunner for the GOP nomination. But DeSantis has stumbled in his pre-announcement campaign phase and has been put on the defensive by Trump’s savage, personal and often inaccurate, attacks. It’s tough for DeSantis to respond aggressively to Trump’s assaults because he doesn’t want to offend Trump’s loyal followers, who will be needed to beat President Joe Biden.
When DeSantis declares his candidacy in the next few weeks he’ll need to up his game or the Trump juggernaut will bury him in a Florida swamp.
Survey results from Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics-sponsored polls show 47% of Utah voters approve of Sen. Mike Lee’s performance and 44% do not. Sen. Mitt Romney gets a slightly higher 52% approval rating, with 44% of voters disapproving. Three quarters of conservative voters support Lee but only 55% support Romney. What are the implications of the surveys?
Pignanelli: Right wingers ignore Romney’s conservative voting record and remain angry with his votes to impeach Trump. But the polls reveal Romney’s strong support with moderates (69%) that he could recruit to vote in the primary should reelection be announced.
Lee just emerged from a brutal general election and the fallout expressed in the survey is not surprising. But he has a strong base from which he can expand appeals to moderates on some issues.
Webb: The polls show Romney must run an excellent, grassroots-focused primary campaign to appeal to conservatives and win the GOP nomination next year. He must spend most of his time traversing the state, meeting with thousands of ordinary GOP voters. It’s long hours and hard work. If he runs mostly a media campaign and stays in Washington, he loses. Will Romney even want to do it?
Also at the GOP convention, state director for Sen. Mike Lee, Robert Axson, was confirmed as GOP state party chair. How will he do?
Pignanelli: Axson is a friend and former student of mine. He understands the chairman of the state’s leading political party has obligations towards financial integrity, intelligent outreach to voters and appreciation of how Utahns conduct business. He will excel in this new role.
Webb: It’s great to see a younger generation of leaders take over. My only concern is that Axson’s leadership team said they want to “strengthen and preserve” the caucus/convention system. That’s fine, unless it means they want to repeal SB54 and eliminate the dual path to the primary ballot. That would be an historic mistake that would be terribly divisive within the party. It would alienate young people, disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of Republicans, send the message that mainstream Republicans aren’t welcome, and severely damage fundraising. They would be at odds with their own governor.
Their goal ought to be to unite the party, emulate Ronald Reagan’s “big tent” philosophy, encourage broader participation — not make the party more ideologically exclusive and right-wing. I hope the new leaders will listen to all Republicans, not just pander to the small number of delegates who tend to be more rigid and politically elitist.
Also, as a protégé of Lee, Axson will need to avoid perceptions of bias against Sen. Romney in the 2024 U.S. Senate nomination fight. Hard feelings no doubt exist after Romney declined to endorse Lee, his fellow Republican, in last year’s general election.
Romney or Wilson. DeSantis or Trump. Who do Utahns want?
Will Romey run, or won’t he? Who will be the Republican nominee for president? Politics are heating up in Utah and the nation
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
Finally, the weather is warming and politics are heating up as well. A recent announcement and polling results are topics discussed by local politicos. So we enter the fray.
Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson announced last week the formation of a committee to explore running for the U.S. Senate in 2024. Mitt Romney also filed a statement of organization with the FEC, but has not firmly said he’s running. What are politicos saying about Wilson’s chances against Romney or in an open field?
Pignanelli: “I would rather die than be in the United States Senate. I would be bored to death.” — Chris Christie
Speaker Wilson hopes to defy Utah political history because no state lawmaker was ever elected to the U.S. Senate. (Congressman and former state Sen. George Sutherland was “chosen” by the Utah Legislature in 1905, prior to the 17th Amendment.) Our senators ascended from the business/legal community or held local government offices.
Wilson could break this tradition. His record, combined with strategic leveraging of the legislative caucus, could secure the top spot in a state convention. Wilson’s leadership on popular issues (i.e. Great Salt Lake, budget reform, etc.) are attractive. Wilson and Romney share many characteristics including success in business, willingness to tackle tough issues as elected leaders, and a local heritage. Both are well respected in religious, business and cultural arenas.
But if Romney decides for reelection, he will be tough to dislodge in the true battleground — the primary. Incumbent Romney will receive extraordinary external support, especially at the urging of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. If Romney chooses retirement, Wilson will face even more opponents.
History does not create barriers but rather constructs guidelines on how success is possible and is a rich textbook for all candidates in this upcoming election.
Webb: Wilson is a very solid candidate who will be tough competition for Romney in the Republican primary. Wilson can attract conservative voters while being reasonably acceptable to moderates.
Romney’s biggest problem with conservative Republicans is his bitter and vocal loathing of Donald Trump and especially his two votes to boot Trump from office in the impeachment process. What made Romney’s votes unforgivable for some conservatives wasn’t just that he disliked Trump. It was that Romney firmly aligned himself with Nancy Pelosi and liberal Democrats on a defining issue. Almost all other Republicans, including many who didn’t like Trump, did not provide aid and comfort to Democrats in the highly partisan impeachment process. Politically, it wasn’t wise behavior by Romney.
On the other hand, Romney has voted conservatively on most issues, and has strongly criticized the Biden administration over excessive spending, regulation and national security issues. He will have ample funds for re-election.
If Romney is defeated, Utah will lose an influential voice in the Senate. As a former GOP presidential nominee and leading Trump critic, Romney achieved instant Senate prominence, far more than most freshmen senators. He has also maintained the ability to work with Democrats on important legislation, making him effective in getting things done. He is persuasive on foreign affairs, including Russia and China.
Trump will be a wild card for all the candidates in the Senate race. Trump will, no doubt, vocally attack Romney. He might swoop in and endorse one of Romney’s challengers in the GOP primary. All candidates will be pressured to disclose whether they support Trump for president. We’ll see how that plays out.
A recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics presidential preference poll stated 31% of Utah Republican voters supported Florida Gov. Ron Desantis and 23% were for former President Donald Trump. However, another survey (0H Predictive) suggested 41% of Utah Republicans supported Trump and 23% were for DeSantis. Why the confusion and how will this impact the U.S. Senate race?
Pignanelli: Different results are attributed to methodologies used. But these surveys — along with others — underscore conventional wisdom that a solid unshakable faction of voters support Trump, and others are equally opposed. These dynamics will play out in the March 2024 precinct caucuses to elect delegates. Candidates in all races, but especially those at the federal level, will be impacted by this tug-of-war. Between now and then, Utahns will witness various stratagems from politicians hoping to benefit, or defend against, the emotional environment of the presidential battle occurring in these neighborhood gatherings.
Webb: Personally, I hope the Deseret News poll is correct. It’s time to move past Trump and allow a new generation of leaders to take over. Trump can’t put together the coalition needed to win the general election. I don’t want another four years of Joe Biden.
What are the predictions regarding Romney running, and are there other possible contenders in the Senate race?
Pignanelli & Webb: We are not sure anyone has a clear read on Utah’s junior senator, including himself. But he enjoys the luxury of waiting. In addition to Wilson, other names floating about are Congressmen Chris Stewart and John Curtis (although Curtis is expressing hesitation), Attorney General Sean Reyes, businessman Thomas Wright, former Congresswoman Mia Love, former Congressman Jason Chaffetz and Robert O’Brien, former national security adviser to Trump.
Over half of Americans no longer think a college degree is worth it. Are they right?
A growing concern among conservative Americans is that their views are being stifled on college campuses
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
Higher education, a route for millions of people to achieve their dreams, has long been a source of pride for America. Utah’s colleges and universities have produced globally renowned advances in medicine, technology, social sciences and other disciplines. Yet recent national and local polling reveals discontent among citizens regarding these once-celebrated institutions.
A recent Wall Street Journal/NORC poll revealed that 56% of Americans believe a university degree “is not worth the cost.” Especially problematic is the 42% of respondents with college degrees who doubt its value. Sixty percent of 18 to 34-year-olds shared this view. Accompanying this trend is the concern that many campuses are governed by left-wing extremists who stifle expression of conservative opinions. What is the impact of these sentiments on policy deliberations and elections?
Pignanelli: “Higher education should be based on quality not quantity; receive merit-based funding and be free of unnecessary bureaucracy.” — Ahmed Zewail, Ph.D., Nobel laureate
As with most families, mine treasured education, thereby prompting my wife and me to secure graduate degrees. Despite this nurturing environment, my children — and those of friends and others — harbor a suspicion that college provides limited value. Initially difficult for me to understand, over time my interactions with higher education — as a parent, donor, adjunct professor, lawmaker, lobbyist, political gadfly — created similar doubts. Apparently, millions share the perceptions that universities deviated from their highest mission of prioritizing the student.
Higher education created the challenges they are now facing through unreasonable tuition increases to feed bloated institutions, dismissal of practical instruction, and lack of accountabilities. Diversity of personal characteristics are properly cherished, but not various political opinions.
Government officials understand the nation cannot be competitive in the 21st century with a dysfunctional higher education structure. The experience and knowledge colleges impart are critical to success in many arenas. These universal concerns create fabulous rhetoric for political speeches that appeal across the demographic spectrum. Therefore, federal and state lawmakers will consider aggressive efforts to audit and eventually restructure. Public colleges have little time to reform before change is forced.
The answer is elementary — pay attention to the needs of the customer.
Webb: Utah’s universities are enormous assets to the state and its citizens. They perform basic research, prepare young people for good paying jobs and provide entertainment via sports, arts and cultural events. Many technology companies want to locate close to universities.
But the old higher education model doesn’t work for many people. It badly needs updating. Most good jobs that can support a family require post-high school training, but not four years of college. It is a positive move by some private companies and governments to eliminate degree requirements for jobs. Actual experience and competency is a better way to assess prospective employees than time spent in a classroom.
Costs and skyrocketing tuition are also big issues. Higher education reform is much needed and ought to be a focus of Utah’s governor and Legislature.
A Hinckley Institute of Politics/Deseret News poll showed 55% of Utahns disapproved of Pres. Joe Biden’s initiative to relieve student loan debt for millions of former college students. Sens. Mike Lee and Mitt Romney recently sponsored a resolution demanding suspension of Biden’s plan. Other members of Utah’s congressional delegation have expressed similar opposition. How will this play in local politics?
Pignanelli: Utahns pride themselves on frugality and honoring obligations. Because the student debt relief program smacks of political grandstanding, opponents will weaponize its unpopularity in elections. Local Democrats must craft messaging that avoids defense of the status quo.
Webb: A number of years ago I met a young lady from a difficult background who had been in and out of college for 10 years. She had a baby along the way, changed majors several times, and never got a degree. But over this period, with the help of college advisors, she mastered the art of obtaining student loans and she racked up $130,000 in college debt.
This young lady meant well, but she was naïve and undisciplined. College education and the availability of easy loans didn’t help her. In many ways it ruined her life. It’s almost like college took advantage of her, taking her money for tuition and fees, and leaving her with no job and a mountain of debt she had no ability to pay off.
The former student bears plenty of responsibility herself. But student loans have been a windfall for colleges and universities and have contributed to ballooning tuition costs. They’ve made it easy to be irresponsible and enjoy fun college life, postponing the inevitable consequences. Forgiving student loans would make the problem worse by incentivizing bad behavior. It would be terrible public policy and Utah leaders are right to oppose it.
Does Utah have the potential to craft comprehensive reform of public higher education that could be a national model?
Pignanelli: The geography, demographics and cultural aspects of the state create a perfect laboratory for Utah officials and higher education bigwigs to restructure our public universities. There will be resistance, but the stakes are too high to ignore. Utah’s economic vitality depends upon a successful reform endeavor.
Webb: One great model Utah already has is Western Governors University (WGU), which is laser-focused on preparing students for careers. It is competency-based; seat-time is irrelevant. Students attend remotely, with close supervision and frequent faculty contact. They get credit for skills and competency acquired outside of school. WGU is fully accredited and respected nationally.
The danger of isolationism in conflicts with Russia and China
In the words of Ronald Reagan, American isolationism never was and never will be acceptable
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
Foreign affairs related to Russia and China have become hot topics in Utah. Russia’s war against Ukraine has divided Republicans nationally and provoked different levels of concern within Utah’s congressional delegation. Meanwhile, a recent Associated Press story about Utah’s ties to China has raised eyebrows. We’re not experts on these matters, but that never slows us down.
The far right and the far left are strangely united in opposing American assistance to Ukraine. When these extremes agree, should we be skeptical or take seriously their opinions?
Pignanelli: “Isolationism never was and never will be an acceptable response to tyrannical governments with an expansionist intent.” — Ronald Reagan
The amazing legacy about isolationism is the stunning consistency of the policy — it is always wrong. Leaders of the movement over the centuries possessed an incredible ability to ignore the weight of history.
Former President Donald Trump, Gov. Ron DeSantis and other Republicans are splitting from others inside the GOP tent who support aid to Ukraine. President Joseph Biden supports arming Ukraine but bungles his messaging, thereby aiding opponents. It is both frustrating and frightening that leading national politicians do not understand history and what is at stake.
America is not the world’s policeman to insert itself into never-ending scrapes. But on occasion, political realities demand engagement. Unfortunately, prior isolationism caused the nation to commit grave mistakes that cost lives and treasure. When our enemies sense weakness in military preparedness and presidents, they always strike in some fashion. This is especially acute when a president believes a personal relationship with a tyrant will prevent ill will.
Global foes are watching the action in Ukraine. The U.S. is more than just aiding a small democracy, we are sending a message of strength. History documents unequivocally if we falter, a bloodier and expensive conflict awaits us.
Isolationists enjoy the benefit of emotion, but realists possess facts. Our future depends on the latter prevailing.
Webb: I can’t understand the opposition to arming and supporting Ukraine as it fights off the Russian invasion and suffers Russia’s war crime atrocities. I believe the isolationists are damaging America’s interests and making a bigger, broader war in Europe more likely. They’re also emboldening China as it threatens Taiwan.
Vladimir Putin clearly wants to reunite the old Soviet Union by any means necessary, including invasion and subjugation. Ukraine is the first domino. If he conquers Ukraine and sees weakness and timidity in the U.S. and our NATO allies, we really could end up in a hot shooting war because we are fully committed to defend NATO countries as though America itself were being attacked.
It makes great sense to help Ukraine stop Russia’s imperialistic schemes cold and prevent a broader war. Providing potent weapons and funding to end the war quickly is an excellent investment that will save money and resources in the long term. It makes no sense to allow the war to drag out. Get Ukraine the weaponry it needs and get it over with. Obviously, we should not put boots on the ground, and I’m not advocating an “open checkbook.”
Helping Ukraine thwart a Russian takeover also sends a clear message to China, making it less likely to invade Taiwan.
Sen. Mitt Romney is strongly committed to supporting Ukraine. The rest of the delegation should be as well.
The Associated Press story outlined many examples of Utah/China connections. Were some Utah leaders naïve to be friendly with the communist nation?
Pignanelli: Utahns are decent and do not hate the people of another country just because our governments have differences. Implications that Utah officials are traitorous is ridiculous.
Webb: Let’s put this in a little perspective. It wasn’t long ago that friendly U.S./China relations were considered highly desirable. China was viewed as an enormous market for U.S. goods and services. Businesses were encouraged to develop relationships.
The conventional wisdom was that the more interaction we had with China, culturally and commercially, the more likely China would liberalize and become more like Western countries.
That didn’t happen, of course. China is now America’s biggest adversary, both militarily and commercially.
I believe Utah leaders’ interaction with China was done with the best of intentions. In retrospect, it does look rather naïve. But we didn’t know how truly malign China’s leadership was until we saw the crackdown on Hong Kong, the threatening of Taiwan and the extent of Uyghur persecution.
Will these foreign affairs matters become big issues and make a difference in the 2024 elections?
Pignanelli: The isolationist faction inside GOP ranks is increasing while conservative cable news commentators are agitating against American involvement in Ukraine. This emotion is percolating among many delegates which could drive election rhetoric.
Yet, I was heartened by legislators sporting the Ukraine flag on their lapels during the session. Most Republicans possess a clearheaded understanding of global politics that could be tapped by officials supporting Ukraine. Delegates may force incumbents into uncomfortable positions unless they craft a compelling message as to why this is important and not just an isolated tribal fight.
Webb: This is extremely important. Personally, I won’t vote for isolationist candidates, including those who don’t want to help Ukraine.
Would a Trump arrest damage his standing with Utah voters?
Are the recent allegations against Trump a partisan witch hunt?
Despite facing ongoing legal and moral troubles, Donald Trump’s vicelike grip on the Republican Party seems to grow ever stronger, not weaker, according to the polls. We look at the quandary this poses for Utah Republicans.
As of our deadline for this column, Trump was facing a possible indictment expected to be issued by the Manhattan District Attorney’s office having to do with $130,000 in hush money Trump’s attorney paid to adult film star Stormy Daniels in 2016. What impact will all of this have on Utah voters and Utah elected officials in the 2024 election?
Pignanelli: “The prosecutor in New York has done more to help Donald Trump get elected president than any single person in America today.” — Sen. Lindsey Graham
A politician is alleged to have paid hush money to an adult film star with whom he had an affair while his wife was pregnant. Normally, this would be a fatal obstacle to gaining traction among Utah voters. But these are not normal times.
Polls indicate that Utahns have a strained relationship with the former president. They support his policies and willingness to confront cultural issues. But doing so requires swallowing the bitter taste of his personal actions.
Even national critics of Trump agree the hush money allegations barely rise to any criminal conduct, justifying Trump’s claims of a partisan “witch hunt.” Indictments in the other jurisdictions pose greater potential problems for him. Thus, the pursuit of the former president for minor aberrations, by a liberal East Coast prosecutor, will likely compel defensive statements from the Utah GOP. Of course, a former president arrested, fingerprinted and subjected to a criminal proceeding is not helpful.
This dilemma will impact Republican officials who must articulate a message of sympathy for Trump without excusing his conduct. Yet, they must anticipate his predicted drag on the 2024 elections will not dissipate, as independent voters reject him.
The best strategy for Republicans is to ignore Trump’s candidacy while maintaining a disciplined, noninflammatory message that liberal prosecutors are wasting taxpayer dollars on grandstanding. Americans and Utahns desperately want the political discussion to move past the 2020 elections and return to “normal.”
Webb: When writing about Trump, I always note that I voted for him and I liked many of his policies and accomplishments. I also think he was treated very unfairly by most of the news media, Democrats and much of the big government establishment.
But Trump’s toxic personality, erratic behavior and deep character flaws have gotten worse, and disqualify him from winning the presidency again. He performed poorly in the last two elections and it’s entirely his own fault.
But many Republicans still love Trump for a variety of reasons. A big one is that liberal elites, including left-wing prosecutors, keep making a martyr out of him, which he, of course, loves. They launch half-baked, partisan investigations that produce more sympathy among Trump’s supporters. If you’re going to prosecute him, you’d better nail him, or he emerges stronger.
There’s little doubt that Trump had an affair with porn star Stormy Daniels. The payments to keep her quiet are not in dispute. But many legal experts say it will be difficult to convict Trump. Adultery is not a crime. In addition, the prosecutor is a left wing partisan who is going after Trump instead of focusing on street crime in New York City. Even a lot of Republicans who can’t stand Trump are saying the prosecution is politically motivated.
Most Utah GOP leaders aren’t saying much. Privately, most of them don’t like Trump and they believe he’s tearing apart the Republican Party. But they don’t want to alienate his many grassroots followers.Even Trump’s most ardent supporters admit he has many flaws and quirks. Why do they continue to back him?
Pignanelli: Trump possesses some characteristics that charm many, including disrupting the status quo. His unabashed attacks on “The Establishment,” protecting domestic manufacturing against globalization, criticism of woke ideology and other such themes are popular. Especially appealing is how Trump’s unorthodox behavior attracts nontraditional newcomers (i.e. labor union members, persons of color, etc.) to the GOP tent.
Webb: Trump has become a messiah for many heartland Americans frustrated and angry toward establishment politicians, the liberal elite, big business, high tech firms, Hollywood and “woke” culture. Trump is boorish, dishonest, disloyal and otherwise outrageous, but he fulfills fantasies among people who feel ignored and alienated.
I really don’t blame heartland Americans. Many of these folks are my neighbors. They really believe Trump understands them and will fight for them.
I blame myself and my mainstream friends who have failed to help the Trump wing of the conservative cause understand they can have what they want — but they can’t get there with Trump. If Republicans were united, they could win elections, reduce regulations and cut the size, cost and intrusion of the massive federal bureaucracy; they could fight for families and traditional values and reduce the influence of liberal elites.
But Trump cannot deliver these things. He’s too flawed. He will just keep losing. Other candidates are just as committed and willing to fight as he is, but they’re not burdened with his baggage.
Will anti-Trump Republicans unite behind one candidate in 2024, or will multiple candidates split the vote, helping Trump win the GOP nomination?
Pignanelli: A year before the convention, the smartest prediction is Trump prevails through a messy primary process. This remains the outcome unless a contender who can unify the non-Trump factions becomes evident by the late fall.
Webb: I’m hopeful candidates with no chance to win will drop out early and get behind one solid, conservative, non-Trump candidate who might be able to unite Republicans, even the Trump base, in the general election. But that’s probably wishful thinking.