Foxley & Pignanelli recognized for professional achievement

We are honored to have been recognized this spring for efforts on behalf of our clients and achievement in the field of Government Relations. 

The Utah Taxpayers Association honored Frank for his decades of work on behalf of Utahns, and his record of championing sound pubic economic policy. 

Renae Cowley was recognized by the Utah Nurse Practitioners for her work on SB 36 during legislative session. The passing of this legislation was a four year effort in which Renae was a vital part of every step. 

FoxPig is the 2023 Best of State award winner in the field of Government Relations. This is the seventh Best of State Award for F&P. Frank and Holly accepted the award during the annual gala, and were joined by Ellery Meagher, who enjoyed wearing the Best of State medal for all of the evening's pictures. 

How the summer of 2023 will shape the 2024 elections

Will Mitt Romney go for reelection? Who will replace Chris Stewart? 2023 summer holds big answers leading into 2024

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Editor’s note: This column has been updated from the print version to reflect recent events.

Pignanelli & Webb: Technically, 2023 is on “off-year” election because the big presidential, federal and statewide races will occur next year. But this is highly misleading, as voters will select hundreds of municipal leaders in November this year. In addition, many of the 2024 races are already heating up and most key decisions for 2024 will be made this year.

In fact, decisions made by politicians in the next 90 days will reverberate from the smallest town hall all the way to Washington, D.C. We explain why the summer of ’23 is a big deal in politics.

“In any moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing.” — Theodore Roosevelt

U.S. Senate: Sen. Mitt Romney should win the “Most inscrutable politician of the 21st century” award. There are plenty of guesses but no real solid leads as to whether Utah’s junior senator will pursue reelection. However, Republican opponents are already gearing up to take him on. Romney’s decision in the next few months will impact not only his race, but the candidate makeup in other contests, the demeanor of political conventions, the primary elections, the general election and possibly presidential politics (with Trump likely to oppose Romney). So, this is a decision to watch.

Second Congressional District: Rep. Chris Stewart shocked the Utah political world with his resignation announcement in the middle of this term. Even the deepest of insiders expected his departure within the next several weeks and wondered when he would make his intentions known. Stewart didn’t keep everyone guessing for very long. He sent a formal letter of resignation to the governor on Tuesday, stating he will leave Congress on Sept. 15. That triggered a flurry of activity by the governor and Legislature. They have indicated a special primary election to replace Stewart will be held Sept. 5, with a final election on Nov. 21. A special session to facilitate these dates will be held June 14. Stewart’s quick decision means the many candidates seeking to replace him can go forward with their campaigns. And the process is in place to avoid a lengthy vacancy for his seat.  

Governor’s race: Gov. Spencer Cox enjoys an approval rating of at least 63% among Utahns. Any Republican or Democrat thinking of undertaking the herculean effort to dislodge him should announce soon in order to be taken seriously.

Other statewide offices: Attorney General Sean Reyes has toyed with both a U.S. Senate and a gubernatorial bid. He is popular in the GOP and enjoys name recognition. But he will have to determine his plans soon, especially if he wishes to groom a successor. Utah’s state auditor and state treasurer will also need to make their plans known to scare off potential challengers.

Most Utah municipalities: The candidate filing deadline for many Utah cities was June 7, triggering primary elections on Aug. 15. The decisions made by voters will impact the final election on Nov. 7. The Utah municipal election is actually larger than even-year general elections, as measured by the number of candidates and the number of government entities involved.

Ranked choice voting: A dozen Utah cities have selected ranked choice voting as the means of determining their city leaders, including Millcreek, Genola, Salt Lake City, Midvale, Payson, Vineyard, South Salt Lake, Heber City, Kearns, Lehi, Woodland Hills and Magna.

The ranked choice voting cities will not have a primary election, and the filing deadline is Aug. 15. So prospective candidates have real decisions to make in the next several weeks. How do they campaign to be both the first- and second-place favorites among voters, when their opposition is yet to be defined? The messaging strategy they choose will have an impact on the ultimate outcomes.

This will be especially interesting in Salt Lake City‘s mayoral race, which features only two major candidates — incumbent Mayor Erin Mendenhall and former mayor Rocky Anderson. The usual dynamics of ranked choice voting are unlikely to be a factor unless more good candidates join the race.

Elections in 2024 and beyond: Anyone thinking about running for any office next year, or wishing to have an impact on the process, will need to start focusing this summer. For many decades, Utah candidates were given 30 days in the late winter or early spring to leisurely decide and file for office. Not anymore.

In 2022, the Legislature dramatically adjusted filing deadlines. Candidates seeking office next year have between Jan. 2 and Jan. 5 to file. They must also determine if they will be seeking nomination through the convention process or through gathering signatures. This is all in less than six months.

Those considering federal and statewide office should make their decisions by Labor Day and get their campaign organizations underway. Even contenders for down ballot races (legislative, county, school board, etc., except those in safe races) have similar pressures. Earnest candidates will need to fundraise and develop a structure to limit the competition.

Of course, the 2024 presidential election is already underway. The first Republican debate will be held on Aug. 23 this year. The intensity will only accelerate after that.

Utahns will be enjoying well deserved summer activities at Lagoon, Lake Powell, backyard barbecues, picnics and baseball games. Meanwhile, ambitious politicians will be deciding the political landscape for next year.

Why is Utah better at managing finances than the feds?

The federal government is a mess financially. Why is Utah not?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

The debt limit near-disaster is an excellent illustration of the dysfunctional way the federal government manages its budgeting, finances and debt — especially when contrasted with Utah’s sensible and transparent budgeting processes. We make some comparisons.

The dirty truth is that the federal government’s finances are a mess. The U.S. government borrows at least $2 of every $10 it spends. Budget experts estimate that the $31 trillion federal debt is actually less than half of total unfunded obligations over the next several decades. In a matter of several years, major federal entitlement programs will run out of money. The congressional budget process is badly broken, with Congress unable to pass budget bills for the various departments. If a publicly-traded company ran its finances the way the federal government does, its officers would go to jail. How does this chaos compare with Utah’s budget process?

Pignanelli: “The American people expect more from Congress. They expect fiscal responsibility and common sense.” — former Illinois Congresswoman Melissa Bean 

Budget processes are a direct reflection of the human element. State officials endure constitutional constraints in appropriations and ramifications for failures, real and perceived. There are no such limitations (if any) for federal lawmakers. Thus, human nature dictates how these institutions respond.

Proponents of federal largesse argue that states are the beneficiaries of massive federal dollars and comparisons of process are unfair. Yet, Utah, along with other states, exude responsible behavior beyond capping expenditures. Frequent audits and reviews are conducted — and the recommendations implemented — to maximize efficiency of taxpayer dollars. The feds rarely do this.

Deficit spending is critical in times of war, economic distress, and emergencies. However, continuing government expenditures that exceed revenues crowds out private economic activity and reduces incentives for efficiency.

My final act as a state legislator was sponsoring a resolution in support of a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution. This was in conjunction with a public statement the federal government needed the same budgetary exercises as I witnessed — and participated in — for 10 years. Twenty-seven years and $26 trillion later, human nature still holds. 

Webb: A number of years ago, Utah faced a financial problem. The state’s retirement system was not bringing in enough money to pay retirement obligations a number of years in the future. The Legislature carefully studied the problem, determined the size of the projected deficit, and reformed the retirement system to keep the retirement system secure and solvent.

Many state employees were not pleased with the reform. Some benefits were slightly cut. But the Legislature and governor took the difficult and thankless action to keep the system solvent and avoid leaving future legislators and taxpayers a financial mess to deal with.

On an immensely greater scale, the federal government faces the same problem with Social Security and Medicare. But Congress and the president are paralyzed and dysfunctional, simply unable to deal with one of the most profound problems facing the nation.

Utah leaders solve problems, manage better and exercise more discipline than their federal counterparts. Federal budgets are full of funny money with inflated revenue estimates and no idea how much new programs will actually cost.

This lack of fiscal discipline is enabled by an unlimited ability to borrow money, with no idea how the debt will ever be paid off.

Utah has low debt, but sometimes bonds at low interest rates for large infrastructure projects. How does state borrowing differ from federal deficit spending?

Pignanelli: Most households borrow money for large expenditures (houses, automobiles, recreational vehicles, etc.) and try to avoid funding ongoing expenses with borrowed money. Utah follows a similar path, explaining its excellent bond rating. Federal support of large projects was extremely beneficial for this country’s development, but Washington, D.C., ignores similar discipline undertaken by families and states.

Webb: Utah has paid its debt down to very low levels. When it does borrow, it only bonds for big, important projects that will benefit citizens for many years into the future. Those who use the project in the future, help pay for it. The state never borrows for the day-to-day operations of state government or for employee salaries or benefits paid to citizens. If the state had to stop borrowing completely, it could easily do so. It just wouldn’t build big projects for a period of time.

By contrast, the federal government must borrow vast amounts of money for all operations of government, not just for infrastructure. If the federal government was a business or a family, it would be bankrupt — in deep financial trouble.

Votes on the debt limit agreement between President Joseph Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy were scheduled after our deadline. The extreme right and extreme left were expected to oppose the agreement. What does their unwillingness to compromise say about them?

Pignanelli: Most Americans do not receive direct benefits from entitlement programs. But if there is a debt default, they would suffer through collapse of retirement accounts, threats to private enterprise funding and deterioration of other economic interests. The political extremes have many other occasions to exercise their ideological priorities, but not when a crisis is looming.

Webb: Both the debt and the periodic debt limit crises demonstrate the broken ways of Washington and federal financial profligacy. Extremists on both sides make it more difficult to solve the nation’s problems.

Who will replace Rep. Chris Stewart in Congress?

Dozens of people are announced or likely candidates to replace Chris Stewart in the 2nd District

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Pignanelli & Webb: Utah Congressman Chris Stewart recently announced he is retiring from Congress this month because of health concerns with his wife, Evie. This noble action deserves respect and compassion from all citizens. Of course, Stewart’s retirement has set the Utah political world ablaze. Your columnists enjoy watching the fires rage.

What will be the process to fill this vacancy in the U.S. House of Representatives, and what can voters expect?

”When someone whispers in my ear about running for office, it sounds like the Tabernacle Choir singing the Hallelujah Chorus!” — former Utah Congressman Wayne Owens

Open congressional seats don’t come available in Utah very often, so a very large group of ambitious Republicans and Democrats are experiencing a distinct ringing in their ears — the clarion call of service in Congress.

However, the path to winning a seat isn’t quite clear right now. The circumstances surrounding the 2017 special election to replace Jason Chaffetz when he resigned created a kerfuffle among state officials. This resulted in 2020 legislation establishing the existing process. Within seven days of receiving the letter of resignation, the governor issues a proclamation specifying special primary and general election dates. He must provide at least 21-28 days for parties to nominate a candidate or for candidates to qualify for the primary ballot through signature gathering. Without legislative action, special elections must be held in conjunction with designated scheduled elections.

Therefore, the earliest date for a special primary election this year would be the municipal election on Nov. 7, with a final special election to occur at the presidential primary election in March 2024. That would leave Utah without a fourth member of Congress for a long time, so it is likely the Legislature will take action to accelerate the process.

Politicos are predicting that after Gov. Spencer Cox receives the official letter of resignation from Stewart (likely next week), the Legislature will quickly convene a special session to alter the timeline and make other adjustments. This produces a lot of conjecture:

Will the Legislature push hard to have a quick convention and primary to insure a final election by Labor Day? Or will they stretch the process to the November municipal election? Will they succumb to pressure from activists and remove the potential for signature gathering to get on the primary ballot, meaning only party delegates would determine the nominee? (That would likely produce a gubernatorial veto.) Will they put in place a threshold requirement and a runoff in the likely event of multiple primary candidates? Might they implement a ranked choice voting procedure? Will they appropriate the money to pay the significant election costs?

A lot of uncertainty exists, but it is certain that the existing structure will be altered by lawmakers.

Incredibly, more viable prospects are considering a run this year than six years ago, especially because one does not even need to live in the district to run. In the past few days, cell phones and social media platforms have been melting from overuse as Utah politicos engaged in a feeding frenzy of promoting, and dismissing, prospects. Since we love to rummage in the gossip mill, here is a list of those who have received at least several recommendations from inside the political class.

Announced or likely Republican candidates:

State Sen. Todd Weiler enjoys a strong social media following. He was the first to announce his interest and is already preparing documents to file with the FEC and is searching for a campaign manager.

Former state Rep. Becky Edwards is beloved by moderate Republicans and has announced her intention to run.

Former House Speaker Greg Hughes performed well in many parts of the 2nd Congressional District during his 2020 gubernatorial bid. He will be a strong force if he chooses to participate.

Republican candidates receiving strong encouragement or under consideration:

Former GOP Chair and national committeeman Bruce Hough; Washington County public affairs officer Jordan Hess; businessman Brad Bonham; state Sen. Dan McCay; apparently all three Washington County commissioners are considering (Victor Iversen, Gil Almquist, Adam Snow); GOP Chairman Robert Axson; his vice chair, Jordan Hess; Salt Lake Chamber President Derek Miller; Hinckley Institute of Politics Director Jason Perry; Attorney General Sean Reyes; former GOP Chair Carson Jorgensen; former GOP chair and gubernatorial candidate Thomas Wright; former state Rep. Sheryl Allen; former GOP chair and state Rep. Derek Brown; Salt Lake County Councilwoman Amy Winder Newton; state Sen. and former U.S. Senate candidate Mike Kennedy; former state Rep. and congressional candidate Kim Coleman. Finally, Henry Eyring, grandson of Henry B. Eyring, second counselor in the First Presidency of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, is receiving encouragement to consider the race.

Potential Democrats include: State Sen. Kathleen Riebe, former congressional candidates Kael Weston and Nick Mitchell. (Former Congressman Ben McAdams is not expressing interest.) Independent Senate candidate Evan McMullin is a rumored possibility.

U.S. Senate candidates Brad Wilson and Trent Staggs will not pivot to this opportunity. More prospects are likely.

What unusual results may occur in the special election?

Currently, candidates can obtain placement on the primary ballot through selection by delegates at a convention or by gathering enough signatures. In 2017, three candidates were in the primary and there is likely to be even more in 2023. Thus, the GOP nominee may be decided by much less than a majority of primary voters.

Should the legislature decide to piggyback on the municipal election on Nov. 7, the special election could have dramatic influence on many mayoral and city council races, especially in Salt Lake City with the influx of partisan voters.

While it is likely that the winner will be well-known in political circles and enjoy a solid base to start from, remember that Congressman Blake Moore came out of nowhere to win in the 1st District against more experienced and better-known candidates.

Is there an end in sight for Utah’s food tax?

If nobody likes the food tax, why is it still around?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Some political issues never seem to get resolved. They percolate in various forms on a frequent basis. The sales tax on food in Utah is a worn dispute that crosses partisan and demographic lines. Because this is a very old argument, we oldsters are well qualified to comment.

A recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of politics poll revealed 76% of Utahns want the sales tax removed from food. If this fee is so hated, why is it still around?

Pignanelli: “For every tax problem, there is a solution which is straightforward, uncomplicated — and wrong.” — Unknown 

For 90 years, the tax on groceries was a continuing source of political antagonism and efficient government funding. The measure was implemented in the Emergency Revenue Act of 1933, with the promise of repeal in two years. The extension in 1935 was controversial and has been the subject of derision since.

Several statewide initiatives targeted the tax (1980, 1988, 1990), but were defeated. The Legislature wrestled with modifications, passing reductions in 2006 and 2007. In a 2019 special session, lawmakers increased the tax in exchange for lower income tax. This action prompted a massive volunteer effort that garnered enough signatures to place a referendum on the ballot. The Legislature repealed the bill in 2020.

Sales tax on food is a classic conundrum. It is a stable source of funding for government that reaches across demographic and economic spectrums. But this strength reflects the fact everyone must eat — which implies unfairness of taxing a true necessity. Support or loathing toward the tax is spread among Republicans and Democrats, rich and poor, urban and rural citizens.

Thus, sales tax on food will be a major political issue in the 2024 elections.

Webb: I’ve been a broken record for many years, arguing that the best tax system is comprised of a broad tax base with low rates. Everyone gets taxed a little, but taxes are spread across a broad base. Eliminating the sales tax on food narrows the tax base and makes it more volatile and susceptible to economic downturns. That’s why this tax hasn’t been eliminated earlier.

I’m in full agreement that low-income people shouldn’t be hurt by having to pay taxes on food. But there’s no reason wealthy people should get a tax break when they buy a $90 chunk of prime rib for the family Sunday dinner. Give poor people a generous food subsidy as proposed by Gov. Spencer Cox in the last legislative session (there are various ways to do it) and keep taxing wealthy people. Keep the tax base broad and rates low.    

According to the poll, Utahns are split (47% in favor, 43% opposed) regarding the Legislative proposal to remove the sales on food only if the state constitution is amended to eliminate the dedication of income taxes for education and disability programs. A similar poll conducted in April stated that half of Utahns opposed the amendment. Does this amendment have a chance in the 2024 election?

Pignanelli: The history of initiatives and constitutional amendments in Utah provide a very basic, but often unheeded, lesson. Election measures to voters that enjoy early support can be defeated by an aggressive, bipartisan group of community activists. Conversely, difficult propositions can only overcome unpopularity through an aggressive campaign. Items placed on ballots without a frequent education effort by sponsors is vulnerable to last-minute whims (i.e. the failed 2022 constitutional amendment). This constitutional amendment has a very narrow path for success that can only be achieved with a strong, broad outreach.

Webb: I agree that the Legislature needs more flexibility in the use of various tax revenue streams, while education funding must be protected. If the constitutional amendment is explained properly, it will pass. The Legislature is making commitments to the education community that education will be funded properly. Education funding must always be the Legislature’s highest priority.

Legislative leaders are working with education leaders to see if agreements can be reached resulting in education support for the constitutional amendment. If that happens, passage is more likely.

Are young Latter-day Saints leaning more liberal?

Donald Trump alienated many young Latter-day Saints, but these roaming voters won’t necessarily flock to Democrats

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Utah is a great place to live, work and raise a family. But everyone agrees that it has interesting dynamics. In some ways, it’s unlike anywhere else in the country or world. We offer commentary on a few trends that various experts believe are occurring in the state.

Ryan Burge, a professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University, conducted an exhaustive survey of Americans’ political preferences. A section of respondents were members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. He believes the data documents that younger church members are significantly less conservative than older adherents. Other experts provide similar conclusions. Is such a shift occurring, and what are the ramifications?

Pignanelli: ”I don’t think you can overstate how offensive the GOP’s unabashed embrace of Donald Trump (and all that entailed) was to a lot of Latter-day Saints, especially younger ones.” — McKay Coppins, The Atlantic   

An absolute rock-solid currency is the decency inherent in church members. This wonderful trait is exhibited daily, throughout the world, in multiple activities. Consequently, these impressive characteristics percolate in political deliberations. Whether originating from the left or right, extreme harsh rhetoric, accompanied by disrespect to others, is unsettling to the Latter-day Saint faithful — particularly those under 40 years old.

This verdict is more than theoretical musing. Independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin garnered 21.3% of Utahns voting in 2016 because many in the state could not stomach the nastiness exhibited by the Republican nominee Donald Trump (and were unhappy with Hillary Clinton’s harsh characterization of her detractors). Conversely, Gov. Spencer Cox fits the profile of what these millennial and Generation Z citizens want from their politicians, which bodes well for his future. While data from various sources illustrate this trend, it does not guarantee automatic gains for Democrats. The left will need to adjust messaging to capture these roaming voters.

This begs the question of convention delegates in both parties. The extreme views of these activists do not sit well with this incoming cohort into the church. Whether in Utah, or other parts of the country, candidates who understand the decency of Latter-day Saint constituents will attract their support.

Webb: Most people have heard the quote attributed to Winston Churchill (and various others) that anyone under 30 who is not a liberal has no heart, and anyone over 30 who is not a conservative has no brains. There is some truth to that adage. It seems every young generation is liberal, and experts predict they will turn the country more liberal as they age. But it usually doesn’t happen.

Most young people are idealistic, as they should be. They are the product of an education system that leans left and they wish to create a society that is more inclusive, more just, more equitable and more prosperous for all.  

They have been taught that the fastest and simplest path to achieve their vision of the ideal society is through government. Pass mandates and provide money to solve the nation’s myriad problems.

Certainly, governments at all levels have important roles to play, but many people eventually reach the conclusion that answers to society’s problems must come mostly from the bottom up, from individuals, families, churches and voluntary associations, rather than from top-down government. At that point, many people become more conservative in their political leanings.  

They conclude that while government can do a lot of good things, it can’t deliver an ideal world. A better world has to come from individual responsibility, integrity, morality and family strength. It requires changed hearts, and government isn’t great at changing hearts.

I don’t blame young people from recoiling at Trump. As a human being, he’s quite disgusting, even if you like his policies. He’s everything good parents teach their children not to be.

Because of Utah’s dynamic economy, Americans have been relocating to the Beehive State for decades. In fact, last year, immigration numbers were larger than Utahns who arrived here by birth. Will such inflows impact political deliberations?

Pignanelli: For years, a handful of politicos have been predicting the continuing exodus of Californians and other Americans from their blue state origins will transform from red to purple Utah’s political hue. While such dynamics contributed to changes in Park City and Salt Lake City, only generations of continued massive growth from outsiders can make a serious dent in statewide elections. The more realistic — but unlikely — potential is if the Republican Party fails to heed changing internal demographics and Democrats respond accordingly.

Webb: Utah embodies a more practical, mainstream conservatism than the deep south, but isn’t in any danger of turning blue.

The bottom line. Will Utah County ever elect a Democrat or will Salt Lake City ever elect a Republican? 

Pignanelli: Not during the ever-decreasing lifespans of LaVarr and me.

Webb: Sometimes we talk about the nation’s political divide, in geographic terms, as the liberal coastal states vs. the fly-over, heartland states. But that’s not really accurate. The actual ideological divides, geographically, are between the big cities, the suburbs and the rural areas. Utah and Idaho are certainly heartland states, but Salt Lake City and Boise are about as liberal as any big city in the country. Thus, no danger of electing a Republican SLC mayor, or a Democratic Utah County commissioner.

What does DeSantis need from Utah?

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ recent visit to Utah sets the stage for his presidential campaign

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Utah Republicans are making headlines locally and nationally. We explore what it all means.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was the keynote speaker at the April 22 State Republican Organizing Convention. This event garnered coast-to-coast media coverage. Why did the well-known contender for the presidency make a stop in Utah, and what does it mean for our state?

Pignanelli: “The only condition (for my marriage ceremony in Disney World) … was no Mickey Mouse or Donald Duck in our wedding photos.” — Ron DeSantis  

Republican activists should thank state Sens. Todd Weiler, Dan McCay and Mike McKell for recruiting almost 100 Utah officials to express public support for DeSantis after the 2022 elections. This famous action prompted his visit, especially because the Florida governor needs love from the Beehive State.

Recently, DeSantis offered a much-criticized speech at Liberty College and endured a humiliating revelation in Washington, D.C., that many in the Florida congressional delegation are supporting Donald Trump. Despite the protesters outside the UVU convention hall, the warm embrace of Utah delegates was essential to his national ambitions. Having watched the speech on livestream, I can attest DeSantis was technically efficient in listing accomplishments as governor while occasionally mentioning the national founders. But additional inspiration is required for a successful campaign.

DeSantis’ pilgrimage to Utah elevates the local GOP as an important factor for those seeking to dislodge Trump. Thus, a parade of famous politicians (i.e. former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Tim Scott, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and others) will soon arrive to lavish public praise upon Utah for our excellent management, friendly residents and beautiful surroundings.

So, here is a warranted shoutout to Weiler, McCay and McKell for playing state ambassadors.

Webb: It was a good idea to invite DeSantis and give Utahns an opportunity to size him up. He appears to be the only viable challenger to former President Donald Trump, the clear frontrunner for the GOP nomination. But DeSantis has stumbled in his pre-announcement campaign phase and has been put on the defensive by Trump’s savage, personal and often inaccurate, attacks. It’s tough for DeSantis to respond aggressively to Trump’s assaults because he doesn’t want to offend Trump’s loyal followers, who will be needed to beat President Joe Biden.

When DeSantis declares his candidacy in the next few weeks he’ll need to up his game or the Trump juggernaut will bury him in a Florida swamp.

Survey results from Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics-sponsored polls show 47% of Utah voters approve of Sen. Mike Lee’s performance and 44% do not. Sen. Mitt Romney gets a slightly higher 52% approval rating, with 44% of voters disapproving. Three quarters of conservative voters support Lee but only 55% support Romney. What are the implications of the surveys?

Pignanelli: Right wingers ignore Romney’s conservative voting record and remain angry with his votes to impeach Trump. But the polls reveal Romney’s strong support with moderates (69%) that he could recruit to vote in the primary should reelection be announced.

Lee just emerged from a brutal general election and the fallout expressed in the survey is not surprising. But he has a strong base from which he can expand appeals to moderates on some issues.

Webb: The polls show Romney must run an excellent, grassroots-focused primary campaign to appeal to conservatives and win the GOP nomination next year. He must spend most of his time traversing the state, meeting with thousands of ordinary GOP voters. It’s long hours and hard work. If he runs mostly a media campaign and stays in Washington, he loses. Will Romney even want to do it?

Also at the GOP convention, state director for Sen. Mike Lee, Robert Axson, was confirmed as GOP state party chair. How will he do?

Pignanelli: Axson is a friend and former student of mine. He understands the chairman of the state’s leading political party has obligations towards financial integrity, intelligent outreach to voters and appreciation of how Utahns conduct business. He will excel in this new role.

Webb: It’s great to see a younger generation of leaders take over. My only concern is that Axson’s leadership team said they want to “strengthen and preserve” the caucus/convention system. That’s fine, unless it means they want to repeal SB54 and eliminate the dual path to the primary ballot. That would be an historic mistake that would be terribly divisive within the party. It would alienate young people, disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of Republicans, send the message that mainstream Republicans aren’t welcome, and severely damage fundraising. They would be at odds with their own governor.

Their goal ought to be to unite the party, emulate Ronald Reagan’s “big tent” philosophy, encourage broader participation — not make the party more ideologically exclusive and right-wing. I hope the new leaders will listen to all Republicans, not just pander to the small number of delegates who tend to be more rigid and politically elitist.

Also, as a protégé of Lee, Axson will need to avoid perceptions of bias against Sen. Romney in the 2024 U.S. Senate nomination fight. Hard feelings no doubt exist after Romney declined to endorse Lee, his fellow Republican, in last year’s general election.

Romney or Wilson. DeSantis or Trump. Who do Utahns want?

Will Romey run, or won’t he? Who will be the Republican nominee for president? Politics are heating up in Utah and the nation

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Finally, the weather is warming and politics are heating up as well. A recent announcement and polling results are topics discussed by local politicos. So we enter the fray.

Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson announced last week the formation of a committee to explore running for the U.S. Senate in 2024. Mitt Romney also filed a statement of organization with the FEC, but has not firmly said he’s running. What are politicos saying about Wilson’s chances against Romney or in an open field?

Pignanelli: “I would rather die than be in the United States Senate. I would be bored to death.” — Chris Christie 

Speaker Wilson hopes to defy Utah political history because no state lawmaker was ever elected to the U.S. Senate. (Congressman and former state Sen. George Sutherland was “chosen” by the Utah Legislature in 1905, prior to the 17th Amendment.) Our senators ascended from the business/legal community or held local government offices.

Wilson could break this tradition. His record, combined with strategic leveraging of the legislative caucus, could secure the top spot in a state convention. Wilson’s leadership on popular issues (i.e. Great Salt Lake, budget reform, etc.) are attractive. Wilson and Romney share many characteristics including success in business, willingness to tackle tough issues as elected leaders, and a local heritage. Both are well respected in religious, business and cultural arenas.

But if Romney decides for reelection, he will be tough to dislodge in the true battleground — the primary. Incumbent Romney will receive extraordinary external support, especially at the urging of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. If Romney chooses retirement, Wilson will face even more opponents.

History does not create barriers but rather constructs guidelines on how success is possible and is a rich textbook for all candidates in this upcoming election.

Webb: Wilson is a very solid candidate who will be tough competition for Romney in the Republican primary. Wilson can attract conservative voters while being reasonably acceptable to moderates.

Romney’s biggest problem with conservative Republicans is his bitter and vocal loathing of Donald Trump and especially his two votes to boot Trump from office in the impeachment process. What made Romney’s votes unforgivable for some conservatives wasn’t just that he disliked Trump. It was that Romney firmly aligned himself with Nancy Pelosi and liberal Democrats on a defining issue. Almost all other Republicans, including many who didn’t like Trump, did not provide aid and comfort to Democrats in the highly partisan impeachment process. Politically, it wasn’t wise behavior by Romney.  

On the other hand, Romney has voted conservatively on most issues, and has strongly criticized the Biden administration over excessive spending, regulation and national security issues. He will have ample funds for re-election.

If Romney is defeated, Utah will lose an influential voice in the Senate. As a former GOP presidential nominee and leading Trump critic, Romney achieved instant Senate prominence, far more than most freshmen senators. He has also maintained the ability to work with Democrats on important legislation, making him effective in getting things done. He is persuasive on foreign affairs, including Russia and China.

Trump will be a wild card for all the candidates in the Senate race. Trump will, no doubt, vocally attack Romney. He might swoop in and endorse one of Romney’s challengers in the GOP primary. All candidates will be pressured to disclose whether they support Trump for president. We’ll see how that plays out.

A recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics presidential preference poll stated 31% of Utah Republican voters supported Florida Gov. Ron Desantis and 23% were for former President Donald Trump. However, another survey (0H Predictive) suggested 41% of Utah Republicans supported Trump and 23% were for DeSantis. Why the confusion and how will this impact the U.S. Senate race?

Pignanelli: Different results are attributed to methodologies used. But these surveys — along with others — underscore conventional wisdom that a solid unshakable faction of voters support Trump, and others are equally opposed. These dynamics will play out in the March 2024 precinct caucuses to elect delegates. Candidates in all races, but especially those at the federal level, will be impacted by this tug-of-war. Between now and then, Utahns will witness various stratagems from politicians hoping to benefit, or defend against, the emotional environment of the presidential battle occurring in these neighborhood gatherings.

Webb: Personally, I hope the Deseret News poll is correct. It’s time to move past Trump and allow a new generation of leaders to take over. Trump can’t put together the coalition needed to win the general election. I don’t want another four years of Joe Biden.

What are the predictions regarding Romney running, and are there other possible contenders in the Senate race?

Pignanelli & Webb: We are not sure anyone has a clear read on Utah’s junior senator, including himself. But he enjoys the luxury of waiting. In addition to Wilson, other names floating about are Congressmen Chris Stewart and John Curtis (although Curtis is expressing hesitation), Attorney General Sean Reyes, businessman Thomas Wright, former Congresswoman Mia Love, former Congressman Jason Chaffetz and Robert O’Brien, former national security adviser to Trump.