Summer is ending, but the political heat simmers

By Renae Cowley & Frank Pignanelli

Summer will soon be over, but the political heat remains high. Another controversial court decision, political debates and a high-profile endorsement require discussion of the impact on local politics.

In response to a Utah Supreme Court ruling, the Legislature held a special session to propose Constitutional Amendment D, which would restore their ability to alter citizen initiatives. District Judge Dianna Gibson declared it void because the Legislature failed to “accurately communicate the ‘subject matter’ of the proposed amendment to voters and to publish the text of the amendment in a newspaper in each county two months before the election.” Are the upcoming elections impacted?

Cowley: I would not bet the farm that the appeal to the Supreme Court succeeds. The same judges who made the original ruling restricting the legislature’s ability to change initiatives will not rule in favor of the legislature this go-around. Apparently, none of the ballot amendments met the constitutional requirement to publish in newspapers at least 60 days before the election. All could be void.

Using the Gibson decision, the UEA is already making moves to invalidate the language of Amendment A regarding earmarked funds for education. There is a significant likelihood that at least two measures on Utah ballots, regardless of how many votes are cast, will not be counted. This issue will make Utah political history.

Pignanelli: “I learned no detail was too small. It was all about the details.” — Brad Grey

Utah is competing very well with the national arena for an unprecedented (aka strange) election season. The Supreme Court’s historic ruling metastasized strong emotions regarding initiatives emanating from many community leaders across the political spectrum. Supporters and opponents of Amendment D were gearing up for a huge battle — then Gibson’s order was issued.

Until the Supreme Court rules on Gibson’s decision (likely upheld), the initiative controversy is frozen. However, as Renae notes, the problem regarding newspaper publication is impacting other constitutional measures. Opponents to Amendment A (restructuring public education funding) are considering action, as might others concerned with Amendments B and C.

Constitutional minutia of our founding 1895 document may be an unexpected campaign topic for legislators in the final days of the election. Strange indeed.

Utahns watched or heard about the presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump and the gubernatorial debate between Gov. Spencer Cox, Rep. Brian King and Robert Latham. How will the debates impact local politics?

Cowley: I was texting one of my political gal pals this week, and we share the same unpopular opinion: Undecided voters in a presidential race are a myth. Most voters have already made up their minds, even if they don’t love the options in front of them. Political pundits call them double haters, those who aren’t enthusiastic about either candidate and will either vote based upon party or not vote at all. Polls show the presidential debate did not have a meaningful impact on voters’ preferences.

What was apparent in both debates is that Republican candidates are letting their opponents get under their skin. My advice: Stick to your winning issues.

Pignanelli: The primary purpose of a candidate in a debate is to establish the presence of leadership and a basic grasp of issues. Harris’ strategy included separating herself from President Joe Biden, promoting future plans and attacking Trump. She followed the plan and prevailed. Trump could have easily caused problems by continually asking why her plans were not accomplished in the last three years and targeting deviations from prior progressive stances. But he was too busy racing down the rabbit holes she created. Her perceived debate victory will help local Democrats shrug off the Biden drag.

The interesting element of the gubernatorial debate was the Libertarian Latham. A third party qualifying to be on the debate stage is a rare dynamic in local politics and posits many theories of electoral changes. The three candidates offered divisive but intelligent exchanges, the desired outcome of debates.

Popular singer Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris. Will this have any impact in the presidential and local races?

Cowley: Are we living in a simulation, or is this actually a cat-centered political cycle? Childless cat ladies, claims of immigrants eating cats and an endorsement from the world’s most famous cat owner.

Swifties are infamous for their loyalty to Ms. Swift. Heck, they affectionately refer to her as “Mother.” More than 400,000 people clicked on the Vote.gov link in her post endorsing Harris. The truth is, clicks don’t equal votes; just ask Sen. Bernie Sanders. Swifties skew quite young and have very low voter turnout scores. Taylor’s endorsement was lackluster compared to her previous statements against Trump.

Hey, did you know Taylor Swift is actually from Pennsylvania, perhaps the most important battleground state? Yeah, it still won’t matter. Multiple surveys document that celebrity endorsements rarely impact elections.

Pignanelli: I am old enough to remember when “Swiftie” described an energetic person. Although I respect Swift’s artistic and entrepreneurial talents, her sanction will not move the needle — especially in the battleground states. But we all commend her political engagement.

What would it take to win this presidential election?

By Renae Cowley & Frank Pignanelli

Presidential politics is increasingly dominating discussions among political insiders. Although our deadline was before the historic debate, we reviewed topics in those conversations.

Despite being the oldest Republican nominee in our nation’s history, a recent Deseret News/Harris X poll shows 60% of Utahns are not concerned with former President Donald Trump’s age (78). Why are voters not troubled by the possibility of a geriatric president?

Cowley: This survey is less about age and more about how one ages. Trump’s voice is raspier and he rambles more, but compared to the cognitive decline America witnessed from President Joe Biden, Trump is far more mentally fit.

In his interview with Theo Von, Trump shared his personal testimony for sobriety. He’s an avid golfer and stays active for someone his age. These things contribute to the physical and mental fitness required for holding the highest office.

Voters seem to believe that when it comes to Trump, “age ain’t nothin’ but a number.”

Pignanelli: “You can’t help getting older, but you don’t have to get old.”— George Burns

Born in the Eisenhower administration, I was initially warmed by the survey results. However, those respondents also supported a maximum age limit of 65 years for officeholders. (Ouch!)

Such contradictions in public opinion are prevalent in politics. Utahns are surrounded by political, religious and community leaders of advanced age who exhibit energy, judgment and relevancy. Voters will simultaneously detail hypothetical concerns but support older leaders not succumbing to natural declination. They see Trump — regardless of opinions — exuding strength and bearing daily.

Thus, we oldsters can avoid critiques by maintaining vitality. Otherwise, Renae and her generation will send me out to pasture.

Polling methodology is one of the most hotly debated campaign roles in our industry, and like meteorology, it can only be proven correct after it is too late. Some pollsters are showing a change in the presidential political tides while also adjusting their methodology. Should Utahns believe these early political prognostications?

Cowley: My pollster pals insist their craft is more accurate than ever before. It remains an ever-evolving science.

Recently The New York Times/Siena poll adjusted its methodology. If a respondent said they supported Trump and then hung up (often accompanied with an expletive), it wouldn’t be counted, since they didn’t complete the full interview. That led to skewed results against Trump, even if only by a point or two. They have since adjusted their methodology.

Nate Silver, a prominent pollster, is a canary in the coal mine. He was the first to signal a slowing and even decline in Harris’ election forecast. “Forecast” is just pollster mumbo-jumbo for how they apply statistical nerdiness to predict the election outcome, not just how people feel this week. I trust Silver because his commitment is to mathematical accuracy, not to party bosses. More polls, including The New York Times, are starting to show similar findings — they are onto something.

Pignanelli: Manufacturers and retailers possess a pulse on their success, as reflected in consumer purchases. Political operatives attempt to retrieve the same information through polling. But 21st century lifestyles reject the traditional sampling, thereby explaining incorrect predictions of presidential elections since 2016. Cellphones, internet interactions and weighting of demographic groups help garner trends. But caution is urged because in today’s world of social media and 15-minute news cycles, voters’ reactions can change while completing a ballot.

If we were consulting either presidential campaign, what advice would we impart?

Cowley: Team Harris should fire the “Hamilton” (the musical) version of Aaron Burr as their consultant. “Talk less, smile more” is a short-sighted strategy that may have earned her an early lead but is not a long-term winning strategy. Playing the generic candidate only gets you so far. Voters deserve to hear from Harris directly about her policies — to use my favorite idiom, straight from the horse’s mouth.

Team Trump should heed the wisdom of one of my most valued political advisers: “It’s politics, it’s not personal.” Trump should stop talking about Harris as a person: her laugh, her family and, for the love of all that is holy, her heritage. He should focus on the failures of the Biden/Harris administration, especially the border crisis under her direct leadership, as well as the significant ambiguity of her policy positions.

Pignanelli: The winner of this election will be the campaign committing the fewest errors.

Everyone in Trumpland is screaming the same advice. Do not use 2016 campaign tactics in 2024. Harris is not Hillary Clinton. Play to your strengths as the nervousness about Harris’ prior progressive stances lingers. Talk about only those (especially immigration, Medicare expansion, etc.) in comparison to the strong economy under your administration. Avoid personal insults. Discipline will equal positive outcomes.

Harris deftly pivoted from Biden with a joyous aura, yet crucial slices of persuadable voters want to learn more about her. But they have no affection for the hard-left-wing progressive dogma that has infected the party, and she must distant herself from these fringe purists. Americans do not want a president fostering ideological police scrutinizing their words for unintentional mistakes. They are suspicious of expansive government programs and prefer effective governance. Again, discipline matters.

It’s all about the message

By Renae Cowley & Frank Pignanelli

Messaging is a critical aspect at any level of politics, campaigns and public policy. Politicos have a treat this week as we will see how professionals deal with three unexpected but impactful events at the national and local level.

The Democratic National Party is holding their nominating convention in Chicago. They have unusual challenges ahead of them, including how to deal with an unpopular departing incumbent president, publicized protests and shaping the ticket without having had the benefit of the primary season. How can Utahns judge success?

Pignanelli: ”There are some unmistakable parallels between the 1968 convention and the one this week in Chicago.” — Julie Bosman and Robert Chiarito, New York Times

As an oldster, I recall events that are textbook entries for others, including the convention 56 years ago. Protests against American foreign policy that originated on college campuses bled into the proceedings. The incumbent president confronted his unpopularity within the party and declined the nomination. That year had seen two assassinations, an economy burdened with inflation and an abounding fear of crime. Republican nominee Richard Nixon, who served as vice president, had lost a prior election. His path to success was luring Democrats wary of new cultural aspects of their party into supporting him.

This convention will be considered a success if it captures the support of blue- and white-collar Democrats currently attracted to Trump (like they were with Nixon). This old guy reaffirms that whoever learns from history wins in November.

Cowley: If I was advising the Kamala Harris campaign, I’d say, “Why fix what’s not broken?” Avoiding the media, unscripted moments and any specifics on her policy positions has helped her in the polls. Being “Chameleon Kamala” is far safer than answering tough questions, but what is good for the campaign is not what is good for the nation.

Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney on likability, but Romney led on trust. Romney was respected, but Obama was liked. Kamala’s team is taking that lesson to heart.

Expect Kamala to receive another bump in the polls, as most candidates do post-convention. Then, both candidates must face the music in debates.

The Legislature will hold a special session Wednesday in response to the recent Supreme Court ruling. Lawmakers are placing a constitutional question on the ballot in the November election to reaffirm that the Legislature and county and local government can enact, amend or repeal laws even if passed by initiative. There is already grumbling and mobilization among various factions. How can lawmakers and grassroots activists message this endeavor?

Pignanelli: As a legislator, I worked with colleagues on both sides of the aisle to continually defeat legislation establishing English as the official and sole language in Utah. Frustrated with these enlightened responses, right-wing organizations successfully passed an initiative in 2000 accomplishing their unnecessary and insulting objective. In 2021, two young lawmakers (Sen. Kirk Cullimore and Rep. Michael Schultz) dramatically neutered this odious law breeding problems and blemishing the good nature of the state. The recent Supreme Court ruling would have blocked such a worthy endeavor.

Lawmakers must reach out beyond traditional Republican ranks and inform independent and center-left Utahns that removing the legislative ability to amend initiatives will risk right-wing special interest groups stomping into Utah to push measures targeted against immigrants, public and higher education, and existing statutes that protect citizens.

Cowley: The most terrifying phrase in the English language is “I’m from the government and I’m here to help.”

Proponents of the ballot question face a tough challenge explaining why voters should trust the Legislature over citizen-led initiatives. The reality is, these initiatives are rarely citizen-led and are the product of special interests and out-of-state money to the tune of millions of dollars. According to the court ruling, the only way to change a law impacted by initiative is to run another initiative. That doesn’t jive with the whole checks and balances thing.

The real question facing voters is not whether initiatives should exist, because they will continue under the same rules as before — if this passes. Voters will decide if initiatives should be forever-laws or if they should be subject to legislative scrutiny year after year.

My advice to the Legislature: Focus on Utah>California and the mountains of outsider money.

Democratic candidate Brian King just posted a video where he and write-in Republican candidate Phil Lyman essentially make a joint appearance to criticize Spencer Cox. Is there any potential for electoral success behind this strange but interesting tactic?

Pignanelli: Democrat gubernatorial candidates average 30% in the elections. But if Lyman attracts many disgruntled conservatives, Cox’s expected margin could drop. These two challengers are demonstrating unprecedented tenacity and creativity, which requires a similar response.

Cowley: This political stunt will be as impactful on the election outcome as a fly on a horse’s rump. These two fringe candidates, who are in fact distantly related, share more than a family tree; they share a disdain for Cox. As a campaign operative, I commend both campaigns for the clever tactic to keep their names in the media, but that’s all it does. Cox should stay the course and not boost their name ID by responding to petty digs. If you’re responding, you’re losing.

What the Utah Supreme Court’s step into politics means for the state

By Renae Cowley & Frank Pignanelli

The Utah Supreme Court is the sleepy third branch of government and is rarely the topic of political discussions. That changed when the state’s top five jurists handed down controversial rulings. We discuss some of their impacts.

The court ruled that the state legislature inappropriately violated Utahns’ rights by altering the “Better Boundaries” initiative with a law that nullified key provisions. The court also ordered that future legislative changes to initiatives must be “narrowly tailored to advance a compelling government interest.” What does this mean for future initiatives?

Cowley: In rodeo, nobody notices judges until they disqualify a cowboy — then, they are almost always booed. The court just delivered a rodeo-judge ruling.

Utah does not want to be California, which is governed by initiatives. There are 11 qualified for their ballot this fall. Initiatives are expensive and require a sophisticated campaign effort. Some start with well-meaning citizens, but behind every ballot initiative are big donors and professional campaign experts. Strategist Karl Rove pioneered the use of initiatives as a tactic to increase 2004 Republican turnout. Democrats are doing the same with abortion initiatives on the ballot in Arizona and Florida.

The legislative process is deliberative where changes to policy can be proposed. Initiatives don’t allow for compromise once ballot language is certified. The court ruling created a new super-set of laws that can then only be amended by another initiative. The legislature should not fear initiatives, but it is unrealistic to think they will never need adjustments.

Grassroots activists are encouraging a special session to put this issue on the ballot. The legislature needs to strike the right balance of honoring citizens’ right to initiative and the reality that times change and laws must change along with it. Rightly so, voters will have the final say on this.

Pignanelli: “Politics cuts both ways. Every time you make a choice, it has unintended consequences.” — Stone Gossard

As someone who was engaged with promoting and defeating initiatives, I believe this constitutional right can serve good public policy. The mere threat of it has spurred legislative action. But the approach does not enjoy the advantages of the legislative process.

In 2018, three initiatives were on the ballot: Medicaid expansion, medical marijuana and the redistricting commission. All were altered by the Legislature within months of passage. Special interest groups placed language into the first two propositions that posed considerable negative consequences to the state. Fortunately, lawmakers mitigated these dangers.

National special interest organizations — right and left — once feared sponsoring initiatives in Utah because of the prior legislative prerogative. The court’s ruling will restore that temptation. We learned from congressional antics that alterations in legislative processes impact both sides of the political spectrum. So those cheering today may be crying tomorrow.

The court delivered one heckuva wake-up call.

This week, the court heard arguments over whether late ballots in the 2nd Congressional District should be counted. Jenkins did not prevail, but what does this argument mean for future elections?

Cowley: Jenkins has vastly different margins in counties with disputed ballots (28% in Beaver, 58% in Washington). Even if these ballots were counted, it’s unlikely it would reverse the election outcome. This postal faux pas will spur renewed appeals to return to in-person voting; however, voting by mail is here to stay.

Clerks have discretion to release the cure list (ballots that need additional verification). I have personally called voters from a cure list and it impacted the outcome of that election. Yes, my candidate won. I can’t understand why, when election security is a concern for many, that the clerk would err on the side of less transparency. The legislature should make the cure list a public record, increase drop box locations and provide information to voters about postmarking. Every legal vote should count.

Pignanelli: An old procrastinator, I always mail my ballot the morning before Election Day with confidence it will be timely postmarked but probably not counted for several days. This rational belief is shared by many Utahns. Thus, citizens were shocked to learn that many ballots collected in Utah are processed in Nevada. Lawmakers may respond to this dilemma.

Since Jenkins did not prevail, this will apply intense pressure on future campaigns to push supporters to the mailboxes long before Election Day. But this requires bending the current trend of voters holding on to their ballots until the deadlines.

Will the court’s unusual step into politics have ramifications at the legislature or in elections?

Cowley: If a question is placed on the ballot this fall, it will be on par with the Biden/Harris swap in terms of political intrigue and truncated timelines. The legislature will have to make the case for why amending the initiative process is in the best interest of voters. Special interest groups will also be quickly organizing campaign efforts to oppose anything that undermines the court’s ruling.

Pignanelli: Judicial appointments are likely to become an election issue for legislative candidates. The legislature may consider other measures. Also, Utah has avoided the contentious judicial retention elections witnessed in other states. Those days are over.

Change is the only constant in life

Our column is verifying ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus’ 2,500-year-old maxim that change is the only constant in life with a new development.

Cowley: Howdy, readers! My name is Renae Cowley, and I am honored to be Frank’s new co-columnist.

I was raised in Davis County and from the tender age of 9 could always be found on the back of a horse. I attended Utah State University on partial FFA and 4-H scholarships and earned my MBA at Texas A&M Commerce. My crowning achievement was winning Miss Rodeo Utah and top five at Miss Rodeo America. I worked on campaigns across the Wasatch Front. I am honored to be a partner with Frank in our public affairs/lobbying firm. I was bit by the political bug while working on campaigns. Diving into polling crosstabs, analyzing voter turnout models and crafting campaign tactics is what I call a fun Friday night. I was honored to work for some great conservatives and pioneered winning strategies in highly specialized land use campaigns. When I am not on the Hill, I compete in professional rodeo barrel racing.

I am a dichotomy. I conceal carry every day with steel on my hip, but wear stilettos on my feet. I drive a big truck, but I have a tiny dog riding shotgun. I am a cowgirl, yet I eat mostly vegetarian. I am excited to share a little bit of my life and perspectives with you from the political arena to the rodeo arena. Both can be full of … well, you know!

Frank and I could not be any more opposite. He’s a boomer; I’m a millennial. He’s urban; I’m rural. He was one of Utah’s leading Democrats in the ‘90s; I’m a staunch conservative. My ancestors were pioneers; his were purveyors of strong drink. Despite our differences, we both share a passion for politics. We’ve worked together in our lobbying firm for over a decade. We’ve had many spirited political conversations, punctuated by pithy repartee. With the departure of the eloquent and legendary LaVarr Webb, we thought it might be time to take Frank’s and my political banter to the masses. The gentleman farmer LaVarr leaves a pretty tall tractor seat to fill, but I am excited by this opportunity.

As a millennial, I am a digital native. Social media is a normal part of life for me. Frank, I love ya man, but can you even spell X (formerly known as Twitter)? I’ve been documenting my rodeo life online for years, but politics is a different story. Most of my peers get their news exclusively from social media, and I am eager to connect with them over political musings through @CapitolCowgirl.

This is what you can expect from me: There is a unique duality to my life, between rodeo and politics. I have a boot and a high heel in each world, resulting in unique perspectives and insights. My job in politics means I have a front-row seat to many policy debates and campaign tactics. My all-consuming hobby of rodeo takes me to every small town in Utah, where I see firsthand how those policies impact real people. Our editors have promised me a loose rein to bring you the unbridled truth of what I see in Utah politics, as told by a conservative female millennial.

I believe people, not the government, make the best decisions. I believe in America first. I believe in the American dream, meritocracy and equal opportunities, not equal outcomes. Above all, I believe in the goodness of people … yes, even politicians.

I am honored to join the prestigious and trusted Deseret News. I hope to contribute in some small way to the legacy of Utah’s oldest continually running news outlet. My aim is to give voice to the perspectives of my generation. Lastly, I invite you to saddle up and come along on this wild ride with me, both here and on social media.

Happy trails!

Pignanelli: “I never knew anyone like you in my life,” Renae once told me. Apparently, Italian-Irish Catholic city dwellers are not prevalent on the rodeo circuit. Indeed, Renae and I do have many differences — especially age. (Much of my wardrobe is older than her.)

But we do share a love of politics.

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Renae possesses deep intelligence and a remarkable ability to digest information into comprehensible messaging to bolster campaigns and public affairs activities. She enjoys a social media following greater than the populations of most Utah’s cities. As a millennial, she understands how information is created, consumed and deliberated.

American politics is in a state of flux. Liberals and conservatives of 30 years ago would be confused by the current positions of many politicians. Thus, columns based on transitory differences between political affiliations is not helpful. Instead, Renae and I will offer readers our different perspectives on how global, national and local events impact Utah elections and public policy deliberations.

To use Renae’s vernacular, hang on — it’s going to be a wild and fun rodeo.

For LaVarr, it’s time for farewell and new adventures

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Webb: It’s hard to believe, but this will be my last column for the Deseret News. I’ve been co-writing this column for 21 years, the first few years with the great Ted Wilson, and the balance with the great Frank Pignanelli.

I’ve loved writing the column, although those weekly deadlines came faster and faster as I got older. I have really enjoyed collaborating with Frank each week on topics, grinding out my part of the column, and sending in the finished product by noon each Tuesday. Over the 21 years, I don’t think we missed a column, rain or shine, even with holidays, family vacations, sickness and busy careers.

I’m now age 73 and have been planning to retire for some time. My wife, Jan, and I recently received a call to do some church service in Hong Kong, starting in November. We’re greatly looking forward to this new adventure.

This means not just retiring from the column, but ending a more than 50-year career in journalism, government and political consulting. I started writing professionally while still in college, spent a year at the Color Country Spectrum in St. George, then worked full time for the Deseret News for 17 years (in two different time periods) as a reporter, political editor, city editor and managing editor.

I ran former Gov. Mike Leavitt’s first campaign, served as his policy deputy for six years, published Utah Policy Daily, founded a public affairs firm with Maura Carabello and worked as a political and communications consultant for more than 20 years.

In all that time, I have written thousands of news stories, political columns, magazine articles, speeches, white papers, briefs, advertisements, talking points, poll questions, video scripts and legislative testimony. I’ve written or collaborated on a couple of books.

As an advocate for more civility and compassion in politics, I will be the first to admit that I have not always been civil and polite, which I regret. I’ve lost my temper a few times and have said and written harsh and unkind things — although not often. Columnists and politicians should be forthright and candid in expressing opinions, without being mean-spirited and cruel. I’ve tried to behave that way, mostly successfully.

Some smart-aleck said the definition of a columnist is “someone who comes down out of the hills after the battle is over and shoots the wounded.” There’s a lot of truth to that.

Many years ago, I was an intern in Washington, D.C., working for famed muckraking columnist Jack Anderson. I heard him speak to a group of students, pontificating at length about crooked politicians and the need for some of them to be locked up. A student asked him, “Mr. Anderson, if you’re so smart, why don’t you run for office yourself?” He quickly responded: “Are you kidding? I’d much rather be up in the stands yelling ‘toss the bum out’ than be down there pitching myself!”

Over the years, I have been both up in the stands observing (as a journalist) and down on the field pitching (managing campaigns and working in state government). I have great respect for most people who undertake the difficult task of running for office and serving. Even when I disagree with them, I believe the vast majority are good people who want to do what’s best for their constituents. Politics at all levels is a tough business, and I admire those who engage.

I appreciate the support of Jan, my wife, who has stuck with me for more than 50 years. I thank my six children.

It has been a true pleasure working with Frank. Despite our political differences, we have developed a genuine friendship, based on caring and mutual respect. I’m glad he will be carrying on the column with a new collaborator.

I thank the Deseret News for providing this opportunity and for being a longtime employer and partner. I profusely thank our readers, whose interest has kept the column alive for 20 years.

Off to new ventures!

Pignanelli: LaVarr and I wrote over 1,000 columns while never missing a deadline in 21 years. I can say without hesitation that this edition was the most difficult to draft. LaVarr and I are different in many ways, especially in professions, political experiences, family heritage and demeanor (he is well-adjusted). Yet, we share so much, including our affection for the incredible citizens of Utah, political intrigue, the machinations of campaigns, reliving historical events and common-sense governance. I treasure my friendship with the widely respected LaVarr, who was always patient with this obnoxious firebrand.

I was deeply honored to share a byline with someone of LaVarr’s prestige and reputation for excellence. Our weekly “grind” was a true labor of love — offering differing viewpoints and experiences to furnish readers the “why and how” of what was happening in state politics.

LaVarr can never be replaced. However, we will announce next week my new partner for this column. I am excited for the opportunities this change will deliver readers: a new and different perspective toward Utah elections and politics.

I join thousands of readers and politicos in wishing LaVarr good luck in his new endeavors. We are all grateful to be blessed with his friendship and wisdom.

Political earthquakes shake up presidential race

If the ground seems shaky under our feet, it’s because some of the biggest political earthquakes in our lifetimes have occurred over the last several days. We’re still a little dazed, but we share our thoughts.

The shocking assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump was shortly followed by President Joe Biden withdrawing from the presidential race. Now the attention of Utah, the nation and the world turns to the likelihood of VP Kamala Harris leading the Democratic ticket and whether she can defeat Trump. How will Harris do against Trump? What are the potential impacts for local races?

Pignanelli: “Politics is politics, but this is a human moment.” — Van Jones, political commentator

For generations, American schoolchildren were lectured on Greek and Shakespearean tragedies. These lessons became relevant as millions endured the publicized travails of an aging leader. Thankfully, this drama is in the final act.

A Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll (conducted before the infamous debate) pegged Biden’s support at 20%. Consequently, Democrat candidates outside dark blue Salt Lake City were nervous. The current relief and excitement are short-lived, as Harris’ survey results were 22%.

She ran as a progressive in the 2020 presidential primaries, and multiple lefty statements will be used against her. The Biden/Harris administration achievements — and setbacks — will flavor the election. The geriatric concern is now flipped to Trump. Also, how Trump reacts to her in debates and rallies will impact Utah elections.

Trump still wins Utah, but local candidates of both parties now operate in a different environment and must respond accordingly. In the meantime, voters are just hoping for elections devoid of literature analogies.

Webb: It’s a fresh start for Democrats, and they are relishing it. While Democrats were divided and despondent with Biden as their candidate, Harris’ ascendancy has united and energized them. There will be massive hype and excitement.

But Harris has to live up to the expectations, and there is a good chance that she will fail to do so. Changing horses in the middle of the stream will definitely provide a short-term boost, but will it last through Election Day? Harris was a lackluster candidate when she ran for the presidency in 2020. She wasn’t very likeable or substantial. She’s an arch-liberal from San Francisco, and it’s hard to see her winning the hearts and minds of average Americans in the heartland.

In Utah, she certainly won’t boost the Democratic ticket to victory, and her coattails will be short.

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Harris vs. Trump: What do the polls tell us about an unprecedented presidential race?

In his Republican National Convention speech, Trump had the opportunity of a lifetime to unify the nation and appear statesmanlike, modest and magnanimous. Did he pull it off? Did he improve the “complicated relationship” he has with Utah voters?

Pignanelli: The Republican convention was well executed with touching sentiments for Gold Star families, victims of the assassin and other Americans suffering. Vice Presidential nominee JD Vance articulated a new direction for the party. By Thursday evening significant momentum existed, especially in contrast to the disarray plaguing Democrats. Trump started well, but then broke the record for the longest acceptance speech in U.S. history. Although this did not hurt the outcome, the meandering dampened further popular support. Overall, the values emphasized in the convention will help Trump in the Beehive State. Republican candidates in swing districts may enjoy a slight bump.

Webb: After the assassination attempt and Trump’s seeming change of demeanor, I had great hopes for his convention speech. He really did appear to be more reflective and appreciative after he narrowly escaped death. He did appear to genuinely want to tone down his divisive and sometimes ridiculous rhetoric.

So the first 20 minutes were heartfelt, touching and terrific. But the praiseworthy start evolved into a dreadful (and lengthy) finish. That bulk of his speech was not at all a lofty and inspirational acceptance of the nomination and outline of his vision for all Americans. He simply repeated all the same old self-serving, mean-spirited hyperbole he’s spouted hundreds of times in his numerous rallies.

It’s a great American tragedy, both for Trump personally and for the Republican Party. He could have been a great unifier, coalescing support of most Republicans and many independents and moderates. We were waiting expectantly. But he managed to chill the good will. It is inexplicable that his personality prevents him from doing relatively simple things that would help his campaign immensely.

Gov. Spencer Cox wrote a touching letter to Trump praising his strength and courage after the assassination attempt and encouraging Trump to emphasize unity rather than hate, and extend an olive branch to voters who haven’t supported him in the past. Was Cox wise to send the letter, and will it make a difference?

Pignanelli: My admonition to those complaining about Cox’s statement is: Read the letter. A heartfelt request from the governor to a presidential candidate to convey compassion, humility and unite Americans should be appreciated, regardless of political affiliation. Of course, if the Trump campaign incorporates Cox’s suggestions, they win the election.

Webb: Cox represents many mainstream/moderate Republicans who were ready to embrace Trump given his seeming change of heart after an assassin tried to kill him. But Trump seems to have little interest in winning the support of the Spencer Coxes of the world. So the Cox letter was eloquent and earnest, to little avail.

A change of pace from serious politics — suggestions for the Days of ’47 Parade

The last several weeks have been historically tumultuous on the political front, with the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump and the nomination of the Trump/Vance ticket at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. Courage, compassion and perspective are the best antidotes for these troubled times.

Those unprecedented events have been covered unrelentingly by the news media. Thus, for a change of pace, we turn our attention to Pioneer Day, a celebration next Wednesday that is unique to our state.

With the dual objectives of honoring our heritage but also having good-natured fun, we offer our traditional suggestions for Days of ‘47 float themes for Utah politicians and other celebrities. This is especially prescient, as the official theme for our beloved holiday is “Stout Pioneer Hearts — Lift Others!” Utahns excel at such endeavors.Of course, we are aware that many of the respected individuals we mention will actually be in Paris on the 24th for the expected award of the 2034 Winter Games to Utah. Thus, if they actually want to use our ideas, mannequins make good substitutes.

Gov. Spencer Cox: Riding a John Deere tractor featuring a brightly colored banner: “Utah proves that disagreeing civilly brings prosperity … and water.”

Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson: Riding a car, with her family carrying a banner proclaiming, “Another successful election year preventing nonexistent voter fraud.”

Salt Lake City Airport Authority Board and Director Bill Wyatt: Riding an airplane float featuring a banner: “Keeping Utahns (and visitors) healthy with those long walks to Concourse B. What a great way to get your steps in! You’re welcome.”

Independent Redistricting Commission members: Marching while chanting, “We kept the faith … in the Utah Supreme Court. We are now back in action!”

Utah Democratic Party Chair Diane Lewis and Utah Republican Chair Rob Axson: Walking together holding a sign that says, “All Utahns, regardless of politics, cherish our legacy and heritage.”

Salt Lake City Mayor Erin Mendenhall: Standing atop a float with various sports memorabilia with a huge sign reading, “NBA, NHL, 2034 Winter Games and future MLB. All those acronyms mean your capital city is a mecca for sports lovers!”

Republican 3rd District Rep. and Senate candidate John Curtis: Standing on a float holding a sign: “Demonstrating that civility and decency wins elections in Utah, and it can also work in Washington!”

Prominent businesspeople Ryan and Ashley Smith: Riding in a Corvette convertible featuring a big sign with the words, “Main Street is cool, but in a few years this parade could pass through the new, even cooler, sports/entertainment district!”

Utah Democratic Senate candidate Caroline Gleich: Dressed in ski gear with the banner, “It will take a professional ski mountaineer and endurance athlete to reform Washington.”

Sen. Mike Lee: Atop a float with American flags, dressed in a white wig, waving and shouting, “Proud to be channeling our Founding Fathers … and Mothers.”

Sen. Mitt Romney: In his convertible sporting a big smile, waving and saying, “It’s been a great ride. Thanks for the memories.”

Utah Hockey Club team members: Walking the parade route, holding a banner saying, “Thank you for the warm welcome, but please give us a really cool name.”

Utah trout fishermen who are also hockey fans: Walking behind the hockey team with a banner saying, “How about the Utah Cutthroats? Great hockey name and honors our state fish!”

Salt Lake Bees organization: Management and team walking together holding a banner: “Hey, we’re still playing — next year in SoJo.”

Utah Senate President Stuart Adams: Sitting atop a float shaped like a bullet train, looking beyond the distant horizon with a banner reading, “High-speed rail — our next frontier. SLC to Vegas in a jiffy!”

Utah House Speaker Mike Schultz: Dressed as “Yellowstone” character John Dutton riding his horse, herding a bunch of legislators with a sign that says, “Leading and corralling the People’s House.”

Utah congressional delegation and GOP legislators: Marching and carrying a banner saying, “Our district boundaries haven’t changed this election year. No worries … for now.”

Friends of the Great Salt Lake conservation group: Costumed as brine shrimp, walking together and shouting, “Thanks for another record low water usage summer. The environment and all the GSL critters are grateful for your sacrifice.”

Democratic congressional candidates: Carrying the banner: “Elect us. We promise, no internal squabbling.”

University of Utah President Taylor Randall: Riding in a red car with a sign, “Proud of our Utah football team and that university attached to it.”

Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson: “With Romney retiring, I am happy to be Utah’s elder statesperson. With experience comes wisdom.”

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Comments

Salt Lake County GOP mayoral candidate Erin Rider: “Just hoping for that red wave in November.”

Republican County Party officials: Marching together holding a banner that reads, “Keeping the flame alive. Opposing signature gathering since 2014.”

Pignanelli and Webb: As usual, we’ll be trudging along at the end of the parade, pushing a wheelbarrow and wielding scoop shovels, slinging the detritus the horses and politicians leave behind.