NEWS & EVENTS

Foxley & Pignanelli 1/22/24 Foxley & Pignanelli 1/22/24

California faces a $58 billion deficit. Arizona has a $1 billion deficit. Where does Utah stand?

California faces a $58 billion deficit. Our neighbor Arizona has a $1 billion deficit. Where does Utah stand?

The Utah Legislature has concluded its first week of the 2024 session. The news media and numerous interest groups are closely monitoring the activities. As veteran observers (that means we’re really old), your columnists have a few thoughts about what we think will be a very interesting and productive session.

Both right-wing and left-wing forces are already hammering lawmakers on specific topics. But they aren’t mentioning the big picture, the context in which this session goes forth. The reality is that Utah government has been managed very well, and Utah is in remarkable financial shape in both the public and private sectors. Long-term debt is quickly being paid off, the state is paying mostly cash for infrastructure projects (including transportation, water conservation, the Great Salt Lake and housing solutions), education and social services are adequately funded and tax cuts are being provided. The state also maintains healthy emergency reserves.

Why does this responsible conduct capture little attention in comparison to the so-called “culture wars”? Why is financial management such a high priority for the governor and Legislature?

Pignanelli: “Few things are brought to a successful issue by impetuous desire, but most by calm and prudent forethought.” — Thucydides, 460–400 BC

Because I am a “gentile” who loves Utah and its people, I have no hesitation to make the public statements that many of my fellow citizens cannot. We have a heritage bestowed by the refugees fleeing religious persecution who began arriving in 1847, and then for the next 50 years confronted tremendous challenges, especially from the overbearing federal government. The prosperity achieved by the state’s founders is miraculous and not forgotten. Therefore, members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints have a legacy of safeguarding this inheritance through a dedicated work ethic and a focus on prudent responsible management. These virtues are also ingrained in Utahns that are not members of that faith (I was raised to follow them). Despite differences, we are united to fulfill a common vision reflected in the state’s accomplishments.

These achievements are relatively unfamiliar as most officials rarely advertise them. Further, the media tends to focus on the quirks of the legislative process while the extreme political fringes find fault in everything.

My children share the names of their mother’s handcart and oxcart pioneer ancestors, who I believe are pleased this wonderful bequest lives through them.

Webb: California faces a $58 billion deficit. Our neighbor Arizona has a $1 billion deficit. By contrast, even with a small downturn in revenue this year, Utah is flush with cash. Most people don’t understand the extent of Utah’s financial health. By paying off state debt, money previously used for interest payments is available for state needs. By paying cash for infrastructure projects with ongoing funds, instead of bonding, Utah has a multibillion dollar “working rainy day fund.”

That means if hard economic times occur and tax revenue takes a big hit, Utah can simply stop spending so much on infrastructure, and hundreds of millions of dollars will be available for critical state needs like education and social services. “We are ready for anything,” Senate President Stuart Adams told me.

Utah’s overall financial condition is the best in the nation, and better than I’ve seen in more than 40 years of watching the Legislature.

Some reporters and pundits are criticizing legislators for grandstanding on “message” bills and throwing red meat to their hardline party activists. Is this a problem that will interfere with the legislative process?

Pignanelli: The tactic of elected and appointed leaders making speeches and proposing actions that appeal to their political bases is at least 5,000 years old. Every session fosters criticism about these antics. But unlike Congress — which excels at the sport — our state legislators have this fun but also accomplish a great deal in 45 days. Welcome to representative democracy.

Webb: This is, no doubt, a very conservative legislature. But it is conservatism with the proper dose of good sense and practicality. I like conservatives who are also sensible and pragmatic. It’s important to remember, as I’ve written many times previously, that the proper way to judge a legislature is by the final product — the bills that are ultimately passed and signed — not by any questionable bill introduced, strange testimony given in a committee hearing, or an eyebrow-raising speech delivered on the House floor.

In a legislative body with 104 independently-elected members, each with strong opinions and ideologies, all sorts of weird things are going to come up. But, for the most part, only sensible legislation will survive the legislative gauntlet. Most of the outrageous stuff will be weeded out.

In a Jan. 11 editorial, this paper warned of impending doom because the federal government is in a fiscal mess. Why is Utah so good at this?

Pignanelli: Citizens are invited to watch (but few really do) the legislative appropriations process in which past and proposed expenditures are scrutinized, sometimes to an annoying degree. This is a product of the part-time legislative dynamic. Congress is devoid of such needed pressures.

Webb: The dramatic contrast in management excellence raises the question: Why do we continue to centralize more and more power at the federal level, which is dysfunctional and broke?

Foxley & Pignanelli 1/15/24 Foxley & Pignanelli 1/15/24

Will Trump be convicted in 2024? Predictions for the 2024 political year

Will Mitt Romney join Joe Manchin on a No Labels presidential ticket? Will President Joe Biden be impeached?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

We are frequently wrong, but seldom in doubt. Thus, we make bold, risky and wildly speculative predictions for the new year. Hang on to this column so you can cheer or laugh as we are shown to be seers or quacks.

Will Donald Trump be convicted of a crime and jailed in 2024?

Pignanelli: “I try not to get involved in the business of prediction. It’s a quick way to look like an idiot.” — Warren Ellis

The former president is vulnerable on the records charges, and will be found guilty for mishandling some documents. He will be admonished, but he will not serve any time. Also, all the trials on the criminal indictments will be postponed until after this election year. Trump will not be wearing orange jumpsuits in 2024.

Webb: Trump will be convicted on at least a few of the 91 felony charges against him across four cases. But delays and appeals will keep him out of jail. The convictions will not hurt him with his diehard supporters.

Will Utah’s GOP presidential preference vote in March caucus meetings give Trump an advantage?

Pignanelli: Yes. If Utah was conducting a preference ballot for all registered Republicans, Nikki Haley would garner a huge victory. The precinct caucus vote system will result in a much tighter contest between Haley and Trump, but she still wins.

Webb: Participation in the caucus meetings will be very low, compared to a normal primary election vote. With committed GOP activists making up the bulk of caucus attendees, Trump will have a big advantage and will win.

Will 2024 be a repeat of Trump versus Joe Biden? Who will win? If not Trump-Biden, who are the nominees and winner?

Pignanelli: The desire among Republicans to beat Biden will cause a deadlocked national Republican convention in July. After several ballots, Haley prevails. Tensions are eased within the GOP and Republicans eagerly unite behind their ticket. Because the economy is improving, Biden stays in the race and is nominated. Democrats lose enthusiasm. Haley wins both the popular and Electoral College vote.

Webb: Unfortunately, Trump and Biden will win their respective party nominations. The general election will be a stinky dumpster fire featuring old, unpopular, deeply flawed candidates. No one will be enthusiastic about the choices except party die-hards. Trump will eventually crawl out of the dumpster debris as the Electoral College winner.

Will Mitt Romney join Joe Manchin on a No Labels presidential ticket?

Pignanelli: No. But he plays a prominent adviser role and will be a public spokesperson for the cause if Trump and Biden are the nominees.

Webb: Romney will be greatly tempted to join a No Labels ticket, especially if it might reduce Trump’s chance of winning the nomination. But he will ultimately decide against running, concluding that No Labels might hurt Biden as much as Trump.

Will the contest for the U.S. Senate nomination in Utah be an ugly fight between local and national factions within the GOP?

Pignanelli: Contrary to current opinion, the fight for the U.S. Senate primary will be a well-funded cage match. Brad Wilson and John Curtis are wonderful individuals and extremely competent politicians but will face difficulty controlling the trajectory of this race. The hostile dynamics between different Republican factions in other parts of the country will foment a proxy battle in the state. Utahns will be frustrated with the bombardment from outside interests.

Webb: The Senate GOP primary race will get unpleasant, especially if Trump makes an endorsement in the race, likely favoring Brad Wilson over John Curtis. Nationally, the race may be perceived as the far right, represented by Wilson, against the more moderate Curtis.

Will Democrats or Republicans control the U.S. House after the November elections? The U.S. Senate?

Pignanelli: If Trump is the nominee, the House flips Democrat (barely) and the Senate goes Republican. If Haley is nominated, her coattails deliver the House and Senate a strong GOP majority.

Webb: Republicans win the Senate, unless Trump helps nominate too many far-right, unelectable candidates. Democrats narrowly take over the House, because the fractious Republicans can’t get anything done there. Divided government and more dysfunction and gridlock are assured after the election.

Will the Republican-controlled House impeach President Biden during this election year?

Pignanelli: The House impeaches Biden but the Senate acquits him.

Webb: The House will spend a lot of time investigating and pontificating, but cooler heads will eventually prevail and no impeachment vote will be taken.

Will the Republican nomination for Utah governor be competitive?

Pignanelli: Gov. Spencer Cox’s intraparty challengers will be vocal and aggressive throughout the convention and primary elections, providing a perception of competition. But the incumbent prevails overwhelmingly.

Webb: Arch-conservatives will make a lot of noise, but Cox is well-liked and will easily win reelection.

Foxley & Pignanelli 1/10/24 Foxley & Pignanelli 1/10/24

Candidate Filings, Who is Running for Office in 2024?

Dear Friends,

The 2024 Candidate Filing Deadline was moved to January 8th, before the legislative session commences on January 16th. We now have exciting announcements about Utah politics.

Lawmakers not seeking Reelection:
-Susan Pulsifer (South Jordan) - Rich Cunningham, former legislator known as the “Honey Badger”, is running for this seat
-Marsha Judkins (Provo) - running for Michelle Kaufusi’s seat as Provo Mayor
-Robert Spendlove (Sandy) - this renowned economist has been serving in the Legislature since 2015, and will be missed
-Dan Johnson (Logan) - two Republican candidates have filed for his seat
-Phil Lyman (San Juan) - will be running for Governor
-Jay Cobb (South Jordan) - served one term representing District 48
-Gregg Buxton (Weber County)- Senator Buxton decided to retire and Rep. Cal Mussleman will be running for this seat, thus leaving his house seat open
-Brian King, Democrat Representative from Salt Lake City, is running for Governor

Multiple incumbent lawmakers are facing inter-and intra-party challengers. Of interest are the following:

Elected in 2000, Curtis Bramble (Utah County) is an established force on Capitol Hill and led the National Conference of State Legislators. But Bramble has attracted formidable opposition within the GOP, including former lawmaker Brad Daw and current House member Keven Stratton. Politicos were surprised when former Sen. Dan Hemmert jumped into the race. Hemmert is former director of the Governor's Office of Economic Opportunity, a successful business leader, and became one of Utah’s top contract lobbyists.

Recently appointed Hiedi Balderree for Senate seat 22 will face Emily Lockhart, daughter of former House Speaker Becky Lockhart in the election to fill the term.

Other developments include:
State Treasurer Marlo Oaks faces one Democrat challenger, Neil Hansen, the former state rep from Ogden who has run for treasurer, governor, and Ogden mayor.

Candidates in line for the office of State Auditor currently held by John Dougall are Republicans Ricky Hatch, Weber County clerk, and Tina Cannon. Chatherine Voutaz is the Democrat challenger.

Sen. Thatcher is running for Salt Lake County Council but will not have to give up his Senate Seat unless he wins.

Shake up on the Federal Races:
Announced running for Romney’s U.S. Senate Seat -

-Brad Wilson, Republican, resigned his position as Utah’s Speaker of the House to run for the Senate in September
-Rep. John Curtis, Republican, the current representative of Utah's 3rd District in the U.S. House of Representatives.
-Brent Orrin Hatch, Republican,the son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch, attorney and former associate White House counsel to President George Bush (41) and a law clerk to Judge Robert H. Bork.
-Carolyn Gleich, Democrat
-Carolyn Phippen, Republican, current director of Freedom Front of Utah, and former legislative staff
-Trent Staggs, Republican and current mayor of Riverton
-Archie A Williams III, Democrat, former Orem City Council candidate.

Celeste Maloy will be back on the ballot to defend her seat in U.S. House District 2. Her opponents include:
-Ty Jansen, Republican who ran against Lee in 2022
-Colby Jenkins, Republican and former counterterrorism policy advisor to the Secretary of Defence
-Brian Adams, Democrat

Running for John Curtis’ seat for U.S. House District 3:
State Sen. Mike Kennedy, who won the 2018 convention against Mitt Romney for nomination to the U.S. Senate, is midterm and therefore enjoys the flexibility to run.
-Rod Bird Jr., Republican, the mayor of Roosevelt
-Kathryn W. Dahlin, Republican, is a former legislative aide in the U.S. Senate, and Republican state delegate
-John Dougall, Republican, has served as the state auditor since 2013 and for 10 years prior was a state representative
-Chris Herrod, Republican, notable for several runs against Curtis. He has won two State Republican convention nominations, but has not overtaken Curtis in the primary
-Clayton B. Hunsaker, Republican
-Case Lawrence, Republican, former CEO of Circus Trix
-Stewart Peay, Republican, former candidate for State GOP Chair, and a military veteran
-Glenn J. Wright, Democrat

Governor;s Race:

-Gov. Spencer Cox, Republican, seeking a second term and was sworn in as governor of Utah in 2021
-Carson Jorgensen, Republican, is a former state Republican Party chairman and congressional candidate
-Brian Smith King, Democrat, is a former Utah House minority leader and eight-term lawmaker
-Phil Lyman, Republican, is a state representative from Blanding
Scott Robbins, Republican

Attorney General's Race:
This is an open seat as AG Reyes will not be seeking reelection. Most notable candidate for this seat is Derek Brown, Republican, is an attorney, former Utah GOP chairman, former state lawmaker and congressional staffer.
Other Republican candidates include State Risk Manager Rachel Terry, Frank Mylar, and Trent Christrensen. Democrat challengers are David Calrson, and Rudy Bautista.

Lawmakers having notice of filed opponents during the session will be a new dynamic In Utah politics.Veteran observers will be watching to determine the impact on deliberations and policies.

Foxley & Pignanelli 1/8/24 Foxley & Pignanelli 1/8/24