Change is the only constant in life

Our column is verifying ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus’ 2,500-year-old maxim that change is the only constant in life with a new development.

Cowley: Howdy, readers! My name is Renae Cowley, and I am honored to be Frank’s new co-columnist.

I was raised in Davis County and from the tender age of 9 could always be found on the back of a horse. I attended Utah State University on partial FFA and 4-H scholarships and earned my MBA at Texas A&M Commerce. My crowning achievement was winning Miss Rodeo Utah and top five at Miss Rodeo America. I worked on campaigns across the Wasatch Front. I am honored to be a partner with Frank in our public affairs/lobbying firm. I was bit by the political bug while working on campaigns. Diving into polling crosstabs, analyzing voter turnout models and crafting campaign tactics is what I call a fun Friday night. I was honored to work for some great conservatives and pioneered winning strategies in highly specialized land use campaigns. When I am not on the Hill, I compete in professional rodeo barrel racing.

I am a dichotomy. I conceal carry every day with steel on my hip, but wear stilettos on my feet. I drive a big truck, but I have a tiny dog riding shotgun. I am a cowgirl, yet I eat mostly vegetarian. I am excited to share a little bit of my life and perspectives with you from the political arena to the rodeo arena. Both can be full of … well, you know!

Frank and I could not be any more opposite. He’s a boomer; I’m a millennial. He’s urban; I’m rural. He was one of Utah’s leading Democrats in the ‘90s; I’m a staunch conservative. My ancestors were pioneers; his were purveyors of strong drink. Despite our differences, we both share a passion for politics. We’ve worked together in our lobbying firm for over a decade. We’ve had many spirited political conversations, punctuated by pithy repartee. With the departure of the eloquent and legendary LaVarr Webb, we thought it might be time to take Frank’s and my political banter to the masses. The gentleman farmer LaVarr leaves a pretty tall tractor seat to fill, but I am excited by this opportunity.

As a millennial, I am a digital native. Social media is a normal part of life for me. Frank, I love ya man, but can you even spell X (formerly known as Twitter)? I’ve been documenting my rodeo life online for years, but politics is a different story. Most of my peers get their news exclusively from social media, and I am eager to connect with them over political musings through @CapitolCowgirl.

This is what you can expect from me: There is a unique duality to my life, between rodeo and politics. I have a boot and a high heel in each world, resulting in unique perspectives and insights. My job in politics means I have a front-row seat to many policy debates and campaign tactics. My all-consuming hobby of rodeo takes me to every small town in Utah, where I see firsthand how those policies impact real people. Our editors have promised me a loose rein to bring you the unbridled truth of what I see in Utah politics, as told by a conservative female millennial.

I believe people, not the government, make the best decisions. I believe in America first. I believe in the American dream, meritocracy and equal opportunities, not equal outcomes. Above all, I believe in the goodness of people … yes, even politicians.

I am honored to join the prestigious and trusted Deseret News. I hope to contribute in some small way to the legacy of Utah’s oldest continually running news outlet. My aim is to give voice to the perspectives of my generation. Lastly, I invite you to saddle up and come along on this wild ride with me, both here and on social media.

Happy trails!

Pignanelli: “I never knew anyone like you in my life,” Renae once told me. Apparently, Italian-Irish Catholic city dwellers are not prevalent on the rodeo circuit. Indeed, Renae and I do have many differences — especially age. (Much of my wardrobe is older than her.)

But we do share a love of politics.

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Renae possesses deep intelligence and a remarkable ability to digest information into comprehensible messaging to bolster campaigns and public affairs activities. She enjoys a social media following greater than the populations of most Utah’s cities. As a millennial, she understands how information is created, consumed and deliberated.

American politics is in a state of flux. Liberals and conservatives of 30 years ago would be confused by the current positions of many politicians. Thus, columns based on transitory differences between political affiliations is not helpful. Instead, Renae and I will offer readers our different perspectives on how global, national and local events impact Utah elections and public policy deliberations.

To use Renae’s vernacular, hang on — it’s going to be a wild and fun rodeo.

For LaVarr, it’s time for farewell and new adventures

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Webb: It’s hard to believe, but this will be my last column for the Deseret News. I’ve been co-writing this column for 21 years, the first few years with the great Ted Wilson, and the balance with the great Frank Pignanelli.

I’ve loved writing the column, although those weekly deadlines came faster and faster as I got older. I have really enjoyed collaborating with Frank each week on topics, grinding out my part of the column, and sending in the finished product by noon each Tuesday. Over the 21 years, I don’t think we missed a column, rain or shine, even with holidays, family vacations, sickness and busy careers.

I’m now age 73 and have been planning to retire for some time. My wife, Jan, and I recently received a call to do some church service in Hong Kong, starting in November. We’re greatly looking forward to this new adventure.

This means not just retiring from the column, but ending a more than 50-year career in journalism, government and political consulting. I started writing professionally while still in college, spent a year at the Color Country Spectrum in St. George, then worked full time for the Deseret News for 17 years (in two different time periods) as a reporter, political editor, city editor and managing editor.

I ran former Gov. Mike Leavitt’s first campaign, served as his policy deputy for six years, published Utah Policy Daily, founded a public affairs firm with Maura Carabello and worked as a political and communications consultant for more than 20 years.

In all that time, I have written thousands of news stories, political columns, magazine articles, speeches, white papers, briefs, advertisements, talking points, poll questions, video scripts and legislative testimony. I’ve written or collaborated on a couple of books.

As an advocate for more civility and compassion in politics, I will be the first to admit that I have not always been civil and polite, which I regret. I’ve lost my temper a few times and have said and written harsh and unkind things — although not often. Columnists and politicians should be forthright and candid in expressing opinions, without being mean-spirited and cruel. I’ve tried to behave that way, mostly successfully.

Some smart-aleck said the definition of a columnist is “someone who comes down out of the hills after the battle is over and shoots the wounded.” There’s a lot of truth to that.

Many years ago, I was an intern in Washington, D.C., working for famed muckraking columnist Jack Anderson. I heard him speak to a group of students, pontificating at length about crooked politicians and the need for some of them to be locked up. A student asked him, “Mr. Anderson, if you’re so smart, why don’t you run for office yourself?” He quickly responded: “Are you kidding? I’d much rather be up in the stands yelling ‘toss the bum out’ than be down there pitching myself!”

Over the years, I have been both up in the stands observing (as a journalist) and down on the field pitching (managing campaigns and working in state government). I have great respect for most people who undertake the difficult task of running for office and serving. Even when I disagree with them, I believe the vast majority are good people who want to do what’s best for their constituents. Politics at all levels is a tough business, and I admire those who engage.

I appreciate the support of Jan, my wife, who has stuck with me for more than 50 years. I thank my six children.

It has been a true pleasure working with Frank. Despite our political differences, we have developed a genuine friendship, based on caring and mutual respect. I’m glad he will be carrying on the column with a new collaborator.

I thank the Deseret News for providing this opportunity and for being a longtime employer and partner. I profusely thank our readers, whose interest has kept the column alive for 20 years.

Off to new ventures!

Pignanelli: LaVarr and I wrote over 1,000 columns while never missing a deadline in 21 years. I can say without hesitation that this edition was the most difficult to draft. LaVarr and I are different in many ways, especially in professions, political experiences, family heritage and demeanor (he is well-adjusted). Yet, we share so much, including our affection for the incredible citizens of Utah, political intrigue, the machinations of campaigns, reliving historical events and common-sense governance. I treasure my friendship with the widely respected LaVarr, who was always patient with this obnoxious firebrand.

I was deeply honored to share a byline with someone of LaVarr’s prestige and reputation for excellence. Our weekly “grind” was a true labor of love — offering differing viewpoints and experiences to furnish readers the “why and how” of what was happening in state politics.

LaVarr can never be replaced. However, we will announce next week my new partner for this column. I am excited for the opportunities this change will deliver readers: a new and different perspective toward Utah elections and politics.

I join thousands of readers and politicos in wishing LaVarr good luck in his new endeavors. We are all grateful to be blessed with his friendship and wisdom.

Political earthquakes shake up presidential race

If the ground seems shaky under our feet, it’s because some of the biggest political earthquakes in our lifetimes have occurred over the last several days. We’re still a little dazed, but we share our thoughts.

The shocking assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump was shortly followed by President Joe Biden withdrawing from the presidential race. Now the attention of Utah, the nation and the world turns to the likelihood of VP Kamala Harris leading the Democratic ticket and whether she can defeat Trump. How will Harris do against Trump? What are the potential impacts for local races?

Pignanelli: “Politics is politics, but this is a human moment.” — Van Jones, political commentator

For generations, American schoolchildren were lectured on Greek and Shakespearean tragedies. These lessons became relevant as millions endured the publicized travails of an aging leader. Thankfully, this drama is in the final act.

A Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll (conducted before the infamous debate) pegged Biden’s support at 20%. Consequently, Democrat candidates outside dark blue Salt Lake City were nervous. The current relief and excitement are short-lived, as Harris’ survey results were 22%.

She ran as a progressive in the 2020 presidential primaries, and multiple lefty statements will be used against her. The Biden/Harris administration achievements — and setbacks — will flavor the election. The geriatric concern is now flipped to Trump. Also, how Trump reacts to her in debates and rallies will impact Utah elections.

Trump still wins Utah, but local candidates of both parties now operate in a different environment and must respond accordingly. In the meantime, voters are just hoping for elections devoid of literature analogies.

Webb: It’s a fresh start for Democrats, and they are relishing it. While Democrats were divided and despondent with Biden as their candidate, Harris’ ascendancy has united and energized them. There will be massive hype and excitement.

But Harris has to live up to the expectations, and there is a good chance that she will fail to do so. Changing horses in the middle of the stream will definitely provide a short-term boost, but will it last through Election Day? Harris was a lackluster candidate when she ran for the presidency in 2020. She wasn’t very likeable or substantial. She’s an arch-liberal from San Francisco, and it’s hard to see her winning the hearts and minds of average Americans in the heartland.

In Utah, she certainly won’t boost the Democratic ticket to victory, and her coattails will be short.

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Harris vs. Trump: What do the polls tell us about an unprecedented presidential race?

In his Republican National Convention speech, Trump had the opportunity of a lifetime to unify the nation and appear statesmanlike, modest and magnanimous. Did he pull it off? Did he improve the “complicated relationship” he has with Utah voters?

Pignanelli: The Republican convention was well executed with touching sentiments for Gold Star families, victims of the assassin and other Americans suffering. Vice Presidential nominee JD Vance articulated a new direction for the party. By Thursday evening significant momentum existed, especially in contrast to the disarray plaguing Democrats. Trump started well, but then broke the record for the longest acceptance speech in U.S. history. Although this did not hurt the outcome, the meandering dampened further popular support. Overall, the values emphasized in the convention will help Trump in the Beehive State. Republican candidates in swing districts may enjoy a slight bump.

Webb: After the assassination attempt and Trump’s seeming change of demeanor, I had great hopes for his convention speech. He really did appear to be more reflective and appreciative after he narrowly escaped death. He did appear to genuinely want to tone down his divisive and sometimes ridiculous rhetoric.

So the first 20 minutes were heartfelt, touching and terrific. But the praiseworthy start evolved into a dreadful (and lengthy) finish. That bulk of his speech was not at all a lofty and inspirational acceptance of the nomination and outline of his vision for all Americans. He simply repeated all the same old self-serving, mean-spirited hyperbole he’s spouted hundreds of times in his numerous rallies.

It’s a great American tragedy, both for Trump personally and for the Republican Party. He could have been a great unifier, coalescing support of most Republicans and many independents and moderates. We were waiting expectantly. But he managed to chill the good will. It is inexplicable that his personality prevents him from doing relatively simple things that would help his campaign immensely.

Gov. Spencer Cox wrote a touching letter to Trump praising his strength and courage after the assassination attempt and encouraging Trump to emphasize unity rather than hate, and extend an olive branch to voters who haven’t supported him in the past. Was Cox wise to send the letter, and will it make a difference?

Pignanelli: My admonition to those complaining about Cox’s statement is: Read the letter. A heartfelt request from the governor to a presidential candidate to convey compassion, humility and unite Americans should be appreciated, regardless of political affiliation. Of course, if the Trump campaign incorporates Cox’s suggestions, they win the election.

Webb: Cox represents many mainstream/moderate Republicans who were ready to embrace Trump given his seeming change of heart after an assassin tried to kill him. But Trump seems to have little interest in winning the support of the Spencer Coxes of the world. So the Cox letter was eloquent and earnest, to little avail.

A change of pace from serious politics — suggestions for the Days of ’47 Parade

The last several weeks have been historically tumultuous on the political front, with the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump and the nomination of the Trump/Vance ticket at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. Courage, compassion and perspective are the best antidotes for these troubled times.

Those unprecedented events have been covered unrelentingly by the news media. Thus, for a change of pace, we turn our attention to Pioneer Day, a celebration next Wednesday that is unique to our state.

With the dual objectives of honoring our heritage but also having good-natured fun, we offer our traditional suggestions for Days of ‘47 float themes for Utah politicians and other celebrities. This is especially prescient, as the official theme for our beloved holiday is “Stout Pioneer Hearts — Lift Others!” Utahns excel at such endeavors.Of course, we are aware that many of the respected individuals we mention will actually be in Paris on the 24th for the expected award of the 2034 Winter Games to Utah. Thus, if they actually want to use our ideas, mannequins make good substitutes.

Gov. Spencer Cox: Riding a John Deere tractor featuring a brightly colored banner: “Utah proves that disagreeing civilly brings prosperity … and water.”

Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson: Riding a car, with her family carrying a banner proclaiming, “Another successful election year preventing nonexistent voter fraud.”

Salt Lake City Airport Authority Board and Director Bill Wyatt: Riding an airplane float featuring a banner: “Keeping Utahns (and visitors) healthy with those long walks to Concourse B. What a great way to get your steps in! You’re welcome.”

Independent Redistricting Commission members: Marching while chanting, “We kept the faith … in the Utah Supreme Court. We are now back in action!”

Utah Democratic Party Chair Diane Lewis and Utah Republican Chair Rob Axson: Walking together holding a sign that says, “All Utahns, regardless of politics, cherish our legacy and heritage.”

Salt Lake City Mayor Erin Mendenhall: Standing atop a float with various sports memorabilia with a huge sign reading, “NBA, NHL, 2034 Winter Games and future MLB. All those acronyms mean your capital city is a mecca for sports lovers!”

Republican 3rd District Rep. and Senate candidate John Curtis: Standing on a float holding a sign: “Demonstrating that civility and decency wins elections in Utah, and it can also work in Washington!”

Prominent businesspeople Ryan and Ashley Smith: Riding in a Corvette convertible featuring a big sign with the words, “Main Street is cool, but in a few years this parade could pass through the new, even cooler, sports/entertainment district!”

Utah Democratic Senate candidate Caroline Gleich: Dressed in ski gear with the banner, “It will take a professional ski mountaineer and endurance athlete to reform Washington.”

Sen. Mike Lee: Atop a float with American flags, dressed in a white wig, waving and shouting, “Proud to be channeling our Founding Fathers … and Mothers.”

Sen. Mitt Romney: In his convertible sporting a big smile, waving and saying, “It’s been a great ride. Thanks for the memories.”

Utah Hockey Club team members: Walking the parade route, holding a banner saying, “Thank you for the warm welcome, but please give us a really cool name.”

Utah trout fishermen who are also hockey fans: Walking behind the hockey team with a banner saying, “How about the Utah Cutthroats? Great hockey name and honors our state fish!”

Salt Lake Bees organization: Management and team walking together holding a banner: “Hey, we’re still playing — next year in SoJo.”

Utah Senate President Stuart Adams: Sitting atop a float shaped like a bullet train, looking beyond the distant horizon with a banner reading, “High-speed rail — our next frontier. SLC to Vegas in a jiffy!”

Utah House Speaker Mike Schultz: Dressed as “Yellowstone” character John Dutton riding his horse, herding a bunch of legislators with a sign that says, “Leading and corralling the People’s House.”

Utah congressional delegation and GOP legislators: Marching and carrying a banner saying, “Our district boundaries haven’t changed this election year. No worries … for now.”

Friends of the Great Salt Lake conservation group: Costumed as brine shrimp, walking together and shouting, “Thanks for another record low water usage summer. The environment and all the GSL critters are grateful for your sacrifice.”

Democratic congressional candidates: Carrying the banner: “Elect us. We promise, no internal squabbling.”

University of Utah President Taylor Randall: Riding in a red car with a sign, “Proud of our Utah football team and that university attached to it.”

Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson: “With Romney retiring, I am happy to be Utah’s elder statesperson. With experience comes wisdom.”

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Salt Lake County GOP mayoral candidate Erin Rider: “Just hoping for that red wave in November.”

Republican County Party officials: Marching together holding a banner that reads, “Keeping the flame alive. Opposing signature gathering since 2014.”

Pignanelli and Webb: As usual, we’ll be trudging along at the end of the parade, pushing a wheelbarrow and wielding scoop shovels, slinging the detritus the horses and politicians leave behind.

Will Robert F. Kennedy beat Biden in Utah?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Our column deadline arrived before primary election results were tallied and before the Thursday presidential debate, so that analysis must wait. But plenty of other political maneuverings exist for us to hash out.

A Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll shows President Joseph Biden tied with third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy, each garnering 20% support of Utah voters. Former President Donald Trump maintains a commanding lead with 49%. What does this mean for other races and the future of third parties? Could RFK actually beat a sitting president in Utah?

Pignanelli: “I am praying nightly those aren’t the only two choices come Election Day and there comes somebody else.” — Sue Daniels

Utahns are polite and decent but persnickety voters when displeased with choices in presidential elections. This grumpiness was first exhibited in 1912: Republican Howard Taft captured 37.46%, Democrat Woodrow Wilson 32.55%, Progressive Theodore Roosevelt 21.51% and Socialist Eugene Debs 8.03%. The 1992 results were especially telling: Republican President George W. Bush (43.36%), Democratic Gov. Bill Clinton (24.65%) and independent Ross Perot (27.34%). Some pundits swear Clinton never forgave the Beehive State for that insult.

Once again concerned with the major party contenders, over 20% of Utahns supported Libertarian Gary Johnson in August 2016. This frustration led to the ultimate result of Donald Trump (45.54%), Hillary Clinton (27.46%) and independent Evan McMullin (21.54%). It’s therefore no surprise that the current alternative, RFK, is surging. RFK is only nine points behind Trump in favorability and an astonishing 20 points ahead of Biden.

This poses issues for down-ballot candidates. There may not be coattails for Republicans from a Trump victory, and Biden’s unpopularity is a major drag for Democrats. These dynamics must be considered in campaign strategies.

Utahns’ famous quiet consternations will keep the local “contest” between Biden and RFK interesting.

Webb: Utah is not a super-Trump state, but most voters really, really, really don’t want Biden to be reelected. That explains the rather surprising support for Kennedy. Voters who don’t like Trump but refuse to hold their noses and vote for Biden have an alternative in Kennedy.

Kennedy obviously won’t win the election, and views differ on whether he will be a spoiler. Various polls show him siphoning support from either Trump or Biden by small amounts, and other polls show the impact is neutral.

On paper, at least, a third-party or independent candidate should do well, both in Utah and nationally. Voter dissatisfaction is very high for both parties and their candidates. Polls show high numbers of citizens identify as independent or nonpartisan. But voters tend to come home to the traditional parties when they cast ballots, so Republican or Democratic candidates almost always win. The best path to electoral victory is still to work through the traditional parties.

Felony convictions have been handed down on both sides of the presidential aisle, with President Biden’s son convicted of three felonies regarding the illegal purchase of a firearm and Trump convicted of 34 felonies related to hush-money payments. What do voters think of these convictions, and will they have an impact on the election?

Pignanelli: In a June Politico/Ipsos poll, 21% of independent voters nationwide stated the felony convictions make them less likely to support Trump. In a close election, this potential swing is critical. But the debates, conventions, summer vacations, etc. are also on the horizon, which means these feelings will likely dissipate.

Webb: I certainly don’t blame Biden for the addictions and misdeeds of his son, Hunter. By all indications, Biden loves his son and has tried to help him through his difficulties. Voters inclined to support Biden won’t back off because of Hunter’s legal problems.

While I certainly am disappointed at Trump’s lack of personal discipline and morality, I agree with most Republicans that he was unfairly targeted by partisan prosecutors in the hush-money case. Democrats have consistently overreached in their investigations and impeachments of Trump. Instead of turning his supporters against him, these prosecutions have produced sympathy and have hardened resolve to return Trump to the White House. Trump has also raised immense amounts of money over his legal challenges. Trump’s convictions will have minimal impact on the election.

In Utah, primary elections are over, and the first presidential debate (after our deadline) is now in the books. Can political gawkers expect a relatively campaign-free summer, or will there be sustained political intrigue until the unofficial start of the campaign season (aka Labor Day)?

Pignanelli: To the glee of political hacks like us — no way! We have a raucous summer ahead full of a vice presidential nomination, additional presidential debates and Utah Democrats ramping up their efforts — including my former high school debate partner and gubernatorial candidate, Brian King. Expect to see your local Pioneer Day parade filled with grinning politicians tossing saltwater taffy from convertibles.

Webb: There will be plenty of political fireworks all summer long at the national level. But citizens tired of politics need not pay much attention until the cooler temperatures of September. In Utah, there will (thankfully) be a summer lull, especially because most major races aren’t expected to be very competitive.

Primary election will reveal a great deal about politics in Utah

Tuesday’s Republican primary election is shattering records for dollars spent and numbers of candidates competing. While the key objective is to choose party nominees for the November general election, other dynamics will be revealed with the results. We use our crystal ball.

Utah is a deeply red state. But the signature-gathering and convention process has revealed large fissures and fractures among Utah Republicans. What’s at stake for the GOP on Tuesday?

Pignanelli: “The primary is a uniquely American innovation with roots to early colonial New England and the era of the writing of the U.S. Constitution.” — Clay Jenkinson, Governing Magazine

Mystics, psychics and other seers examine “tells” in their subjects to predict the future. The trajectory of the Utah GOP may be gleaned from outcomes on Tuesday.

If few convention-winning candidates secure a spot on the November ballot, GOP leaders will question the roles of caucus-elected delegates. Further erosion of their power by the legislature may occur, while keeping some features of the existing system.

Open alignment with MAGA and direct or implied endorsements from former President Donald Trump will also be scrutinized. Other factors determining the fate of the GOP include incumbency, populism versus mainstream conservatism and open alignment with the “America First” movement. Political soothsayers will be watching.

Webb: As an essentially one-party state, we’ve always had divisions within the dominant party. The far-right and mainstream factions of the GOP have clashed off and on for many decades. Tension within a party, or among levels and branches of government, isn’t necessarily bad. The checks and balances usually produce compromise and, ultimately, better outcomes.

Today, however, an intense battle rages for the soul of the Utah Republican Party. Stark differences exist between the two factions, although both are plenty conservative. Sen. Mike Lee is overtly attempting to take control of the party and elect ultra-MAGA candidates.

The battle will continue on into the future, but Tuesday’s primary will begin to answer this big question: Is Utah a traditionally conservative state, or is it becoming an ultra-MAGA state?

Personally, as one who identifies mostly with the mainstream wing of the party, I hope and expect that the more centrist candidates will prevail. That’s critically important to preserve the United States’ role in the world. I believe far-right, isolationist politicians who oppose, for example, aid to Ukraine, would take the country in a very dangerous and vulnerable direction.

I believe a majority of Utah Republicans usually align with the mainstream. And, thankfully, the ability to gather signatures to get on the primary ballot has leveled the playing field so mainstream signature gatherers and far-right convention winners can compete fairly. Voters in many races have a real choice on Tuesday.

In the last several election cycles, Utahns have been mailing in their ballots later and almost on the eve of Election Day. How is this changing campaign tactics? Could this have an impact on the primary elections?

Pignanelli: For years, a third of ballots were returned within three days of receiving them. Now the largest tranche of ballots is submitted in the last three days before the election. Prior to “Vote by Mail,” some campaigns would release a hit piece against opponents just days before an election, leaving little time for responses. Mailing ballots essentially eliminated such “October surprises.” Because voters are holding ballots longer, a resurgence of these last-minute tactics is occurring. Also, delayed ballot returns cause more targeted mail, prolonged ad buys and phone calls nagging procrastinating voters — all costing bigger bucks.

Webb: Many casual voters don’t pay much attention to elections until they get their ballot in the mail. At that point, they begin to investigate the candidates, which takes longer in a multiple-candidate race. So candidates must campaign intensely and make their closing pitches right up to Election Day. Some contests will be very close, so fighting for every last vote will make the difference.

It’s mainstream vs. extreme MAGA in GOP primary races

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Mail-in ballots for the June 25 primary election are already in voters’ hands, even while debates and polls are heating up the highly contested races. The latest developments:

By our column deadline, three important primary election debates had occurred, each broadcast on TV and radio and covered extensively by the news media. The largest clashes in each debate erupted between incumbent members of Congress, all mainstream conservatives, and their mostly ultra-MAGA challengers. Were any of the incumbents (Blake Moore in CD1; Celeste Maloy in CD3; or John Curtis, a representative running for the U.S. Senate) seriously damaged in the debates?

Pignanelli: “Trump has had a roller-coaster relationship with Utah Republicans dating to his 2016 race. GOP operatives say his standing with primary voters is strong, but not as high as in other ruby-red states.” — Al Weaver, The Hill

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The first rule of political debates is to do no harm ... to yourself. The second is that incumbents and/or perceived front-runners must be prepared for the most attacks. Under these traditional guidelines, all the experienced contenders fared well. They successfully navigated the treacherous waters of praising Trump’s policies while avoiding overt support of him. Such delicacy reveals an understanding of Utah’s complicated relationship with the former president. The MAGA challengers were energetic pugilists, but the punches thrown rarely connected.

Webb: Republican primary voters have clear choices in these races. Do they want to elect far-right obstructionists who prefer dysfunction and gridlock over compromise and problem-solving? Or do they want to elect solid, mainstream conservatives who seek conservative solutions that can win approval in a divided government?

In general, the far-right challengers, particularly Trent Staggs in the Senate race and Colby Jenkins in CD1, want to join the small band of congressional saboteurs (like Reps. Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Greene) who, if they don’t get 100% of what they want, will shut down the government and rebel against their own leadership.

In a divided government, purist, uncompromising, unrealistic demands produce failure. They are the do-nothing caucus.

In the CD1 debate, I was especially disappointed that Jenkins, who is challenging Maloy, appeared willing to make Congress subservient to the executive branch. Jenkins’ response to nearly every question was this: Elect Donald Trump and he will solve all the nation’s problems. His worship of Trump as the country’s savior was almost embarrassing.

In reality, Congress should vigorously defend its own role and push back against the extreme overreach displayed by both Trump and Pres. Biden in issuing dozens of executive orders and agency regulations usurping congressional authority. Unfortunately, the gridlock in Congress preferred by the do-nothing caucus will produce even more executive orders and agency overreach, and further diminish the constitutional role of the legislative branch.

In the Senate race, I believe both Curtis and former Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson would govern conservatively and effectively. Staggs or Jason Walton would ratchet up congressional dysfunction.

A recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics survey reveals the following support levels in the gubernatorial primary among likely Republican voters: Gov. Spencer Cox, 62%; Phil Lyman, 25%; undecided, 12%. In the U.S. Senate race the same poll shows John Curtis at 34% support; Trent Staggs, 16%; Brad Wilson, 12%; Jason Walton, 4%; and undecided, 33%. Any surprises?

Pignanelli: Handcarts in the Pioneer Day Parade would be a bigger surprise than the poll results for the governor’s race. Utahns want governors to be inspirational, not confrontational. The Senate survey confirms prior discussions in this column that Curtis was leading, and Staggs was surging. The polls reaffirm once again that television commercial bombardment or lawn signs do not garner support in 21st-century politics.

Webb: Cox and Curtis were far better known going into the race, so it’s unsurprising they’re ahead. Cox will win handily. Curtis is clearly the frontrunner, but he needs to win a good share of undecided voters.

Last week, the Salt Lake County GOP sent voters a “2024 Primary Ballot Candidate Guide.” The mailer lists only candidates who received at least 40% delegate support at the conventions. Controversy immediately erupted as to whether this was an official endorsement by the party for a few candidates and implied disapproval of otherwise faithful Republican contenders. Could this deliver another blow against the caucus system?

Pignanelli: Candidates who receive over 60% in their respective convention contests should be highlighted. This is an important achievement in intraparty politics. But long-time activists who supported fellow Republicans with time and resources, and are now on the primary ballot themselves, should not be ignored in an official promotional mailer.

Apparently, county Republican Party leaders need a refresher on their roles. They should not be using taxpayer-funded primary elections to promote an agenda other than a platform or endorse certain Republican candidates over others that are equally qualified. They have abandoned the priorities of convening well-run caucuses, followed by a civil and expeditious convention where neighborhood designees carry out the election preferences of their fellow Republican neighbors.

Webb: To Salt Lake County GOP leaders, you’re a second-class Republican if you didn’t attend your party caucus. They don’t want the vast majority of good, solid Republicans who didn’t become state or county delegates to determine party nominees. They cater to the whims of the tiny number of delegates. They are accelerating the demise of the caucus/convention system.

The twists and turns of the presidential election

Republican LaVarr Webb and Democrat Frank Pignanelli comment on Donald Trump’s guilty verdict and other factors potentially influencing the presidential race

The election year activities of local politicians have consumed us for months, but recent developments in the presidential race clearly require a diversion in our commentary.

In the “hush money” trial, a Manhattan jury found former President Donald Trump guilty of falsifying business records to influence the 2016 election. Meanwhile, Trump’s most persistent opponent, Nikki Haley, announced she will vote for Trump because even though she disagrees with him on many issues, he’s better than incumbent President Joe Biden. How will these contrasting events impact Utah and the presidential race?

Pignanelli: “When voters go to the polls, they will not think about Trump’s or Hunter Biden’s trials — they will deliberate about inflation, maybe foreign policy. This verdict is not on their radar.” — Julia Manchester, The Hill

The smallest unit of measurement used in science is the “Planck Length.” This tiny metric describes the infinitesimally minor impact of the jurors’ decision in the presidential election.

Not since 1892 have two former presidents competed in the general election. Consequently, Americans know the candidates and the complexity of the recent court deliberations will not budge solidified opinions. Any concerns with the felony convictions that polls are currently signaling will soon dissipate. The tiny sliver of voters in battleground states who will determine the race care about issues other than affairs with adult film stars and technical violations of federal election laws. Therefore, one Planck Length is a generous concession.

The Haley nonendorsement endorsement was predictable, as there is not a world in which she would have voted for Biden. Well liked in Utah, she may help Trump’s image.

“Planck Length” will be useful in November to describe the minute difference in the election results.

Webb: Most Republicans, including many moderate and mainstream Republicans who don’t like Trump (like me), believe the trial was unfair from its beginning and was “legal and political malpractice,” in the words of The Wall Street Journal editorial board (which is frequently critical of Trump).

The upshot is that some GOP moderates are more likely to vote for Trump today than they were before the trial. It’s tough to make a martyr out of someone who has absolutely no shame, but the Democrats, the prosecutors, the judge and the jurors have managed to do so in this case. The whole sordid episode is shaping up as a net win for Trump.

I still don’t like Donald Trump, but I also dislike how unfairly he has been treated, over and over again, by the Democrats, the traditional news media and the Washington establishment. It all makes me more likely to hold my nose and vote for him. I refuse to throw away my vote on a write-in or third party candidate, so the choice is between Trump or Biden (who I think has been a terrible president). It’s a depressing dilemma. Who to vote for when the only two real choices are nearly equally distasteful?

Trump has been attempting to reach out beyond his traditional base. He held a rally in the Bronx in New York City. He spoke at the Libertarian National Convention. He has been seeking support among Black and Hispanic voters. Will he be successful?

Pignanelli: Polling is indicating movement toward Trump in various demographics. Inflation has hit minority groups the hardest, for which Biden is receiving blame. Because Trump’s base forgives any statement or action he undertakes, then it is shrewd maneuvering to test these waters. Trump has nothing to lose to foster the lack of confidence in Biden by these voters. Also, other demographics suspicious of him (i.e., suburban women) may appreciate his willingness to expand support.

Webb: If the polls are correct, Trump is, indeed, making inroads among some traditional Democratic groups. He only needs a few percentage points to give him a real boost in the election. That such a flawed Republican could appeal to average citizens, even Democrats, demonstrates how badly the Democratic Party has misread the national mood and the desires of voters.

Trump is expected to select a vice presidential running mate in the next several weeks. Will it make a difference for Utah voters?

Pignanelli: Utah is a red state and the ultimate outcome is unlikely to change regardless of who Trump chooses. But there will be deep interest in how key voter demographics respond. Sen. Tim Scott is popular in Utah. Because of the controversy surrounding the verdict, many local politicos are conjecturing a female running mate. It would be historic for all three major presidential candidates to have a woman on their tickets. Will there be a new social media movement, e.g., #PickHer?

Webb: Running mates seldom make much difference, but if Trump selects a more mainstream Republican, rather than a right-wing firebrand, it could help a bit among moderate voters. The bigger question is, what intelligent Republican with a modicum of self-respect would aspire to be vice president to Donald Trump — the man who demands absolute fealty but, on any whim, is disloyal himself? It can only end badly. Just ask Mike Pence.