What political lessons did we learn in 2022?

Review some of the lessons our politicians learned this year — to their benefit or downfall: Don’t put it in writing. Get your dang signatures. If you believe it, then stick to it

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Pignanelli & Webb: “The 2022 lesson: Voters who trust elections are more likely to vote.” — The New York Times  

As is traditional every year’s end, the news media are feeding Americans a stream of 2022 highlights and predictions for 2023. But your columnists possess greater experience and more common sense than most of those younger, beautiful talking heads. (In other words, we are a lot older and uglier.)

So we hereby offer our 2022 political lesson nuggets, providing insight for politicos in the future.

Don’t put it in writing. Text messages are the newest form of written correspondence. So even if the very powerful chief of staff of the president of the United States asks you to offer hypotheticals regarding constitutional provisions related to presidential election procedures, kindly but firmly refuse. Some of Sen. Mike Lee’s text messages to White House officials were likely academic musings. But he should have shared them through the antiquated technology of a telephone call, or the much-tested failsafe method of in-person conversation.

Nothing beats basic retail politics. In the 2020 legislative session, GOP Sen. Dan Thatcher voted against legislation limiting transgender boys’ participation in high school sports. Everyone (and we mean everyone) assumed he was dead politically, especially running in a new and even more conservative Senate district. Thatcher was not daunted, and he visited every Republican delegate to explain his rationale in a personal conversation. He not only survived the convention, but emerged as the sole nominee, besting several challengers. Regardless of one’s opinion on the bill, it is refreshing to know that courage and shoe leather mean something in the 21st century.

Get your dang signatures. We’ve said this before … and will say it again. The delegate/convention process is flawed and hard to predict, even for the best of politicians. Rep. John Curtis barely survived the convention. Popular GOP legislator Stephen Handy did not. They, along with others, are textbook examples of why it is political misfeasance to avoid this exercise.

Get your dang signatures — Part 2. The unpredictable nature of delegates does not just reside with Republicans. Attendees at the State Democratic Convention refused to nominate a fine candidate — Kael Weston — in order to back independent Evan McMullin. Weston could have avoided this dismissal with signatures. Equally important, Democrats would have avoided the foolishness of signaling to Utah voters that they lacked confidence in their message and party by rejecting a Democratic candidate to lead the ticket.

Candidate quality really matters. Being endorsed by Donald Trump got a lot of bad Republican candidates nominated, who then lost in the general election. And a number of quality candidates opposed by Trump still won. In 2024, Trump himself will be the bad candidate. He may win the GOP nomination, but he can’t win the general election.

Nothing beats retail politics — Part 2. Salt Lake County Council member Richard Snelgrove is a popular, successful businessman and political moderate who was well-liked on both sides the political spectrum. But lawmaker Suzanne Harrison developed a strong message and worked all corners of the county to defeat Snelgrove. She documented that in politics nothing can be taken for granted by anyone whether you are an incumbent or a longshot contender.

If you believe it then stick to it. Gov. Spencer Cox and U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney have endured much criticism from their own party. Activists are frustrated with their moderate stances on some issues. Yet, both never wavered from articulating personal beliefs rooted in faith and conviction. Cox is now enjoying high approval ratings. Romney polls are less positive but he still commands respect and remains a viable contender in 2024. 

Negative advertising does work, unfortunately. Every year, the news media notes that Utahns despise attack commercials, but concede they do move the electoral needle. We suggest much of this dilemma exists because of a vacuum of quality positive ads or humorous comparison advertisements. In other words, the nasty ads persuade because there is a void of anything else.

Independent campaigns rarely succeed. The electoral math showed that independents McMullin and Handy had reasonable chances of winning. But voters, at the end, almost always come home to their political parties and their nominees. 

Learn from history. History documents that stridently partisan political actions produce limited results. The Senate Watergate hearings were viewed as fair and therefore were credible and impactful. The impeachment proceedings against Clinton were deemed biased and Republicans suffered in the next midterm elections. Despite all the interesting results, the Trump impeachments and the January 6 Commission are correctly painted as partisan attacks and therefore little may result.

Trust voters and our system. In past elections, Trump, many of his acolytes and even some Democrats have spread fear that democracy and fair elections were in peril. These nonsensical allegations were dismissed by most Americans, especially younger citizens, who turned out in strong numbers to vote. In Utah, the elections demonstrated once again that our state conducts a quality balloting process. Apparently, Americans and Utahns have greater respect for the strength of the republic than do many of their leaders. All should treasure this collective virtue.

Santa is coming ... so what did politicians wish for?

If you’ve ever wondered what your politicians are asking from Santa for Christmas, look no further for the answers

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

We understand Santa and his reindeer are excited they can deliver gifts this year without having to wear masks or practice social distancing. They remain worried, however, about criticism from the Dark Sky movement over light pollution from Rudolph’s nose. And with Title 42 remaining in place thanks to Chief Justice John Roberts, they’re deploying evasive sleigh-flying techniques while crossing the border.

Still, our sources confirm that Santa will arrive as usual. So, as a service to readers, we unleashed AI spy technology to hack into North Pole social media accounts revealing the Christmas wish lists of politicians and others.

Gov. Spencer Cox: “Thanks for all the early snow. But please bring a lot more. We need to fill up the Great Salt Lake and meet our basic needs. And more moisture will shut up all those comedians making fun of my ‘Pray for water’ strategy.”

Former President Donald Trump: “Please deliver more lawyers who will work without pay to defend me. I can’t make enough selling digital superhero tokens.”

President Joseph Biden: “Please make sure Trump stays in the presidential race. He’s my best chance to win reelection in 2024.”

Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson: “Santa, thank you for a wonderful legislative audit documenting the fair and fraud-free election system in Utah. Please deliver copies of that audit to all the election deniers who see nefarious activity behind every tree and rock.”

Left wing “woke” progressives: “Santa is still around? That example of self-entitled white privilege should be canceled immediately. He exploits smaller humans and misogynistically ignores his spouse. Forcing reindeer to fly on cold nights is abominable and he glorifies the consumption of sugary foods contributing to world obesity.”

Right wing guardians of liberty: “We are outraged Santa is still around. Various movie and television outlets owned by corporate fake media promote his socialist gift-giving. His invasion of privacy is disgraceful in making lists of who is naughty or nice, and jumping into everyone’s fireplace.

U.S. House Republican congressional leadership: “Please deliver some common sense to our caucus members in choosing a new speaker and avoiding senseless investigations next session.”

U.S. House Democratic congressional leadership: “Thank you for delivering utter confusion into the narrow GOP majority as they fight over who should be speaker. Please keep our own chaos out of sight.”

Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson: “I am grateful for our recent election victories. But I am asking Santa to ensure members of my caucus don’t get any wild ideas watching the silliness among Republicans in the speaker’s election in the U.S. House.

Utah Senate President Stuart Adams: “In the Utah Senate, we rise above all rabble-rousing and in-fighting. So, we just modestly ask for wisdom in spending the incredible amount of money we have available.”

Attorney General Sean Reyes: “I’m hoping that Santa delivers more opportunities for me to sue the Biden Administration and lots of visibility before the U.S. Senate race in 2024.”

State Treasurer Marlo Oaks: “I’ve been a good boy doing my part fighting the left wing agenda by pulling state money out of environmental, social and governance (ESG) investments. Please deliver the state from any more of these do-gooder funds.”

Sen. Mike Lee: “Santa, for the holidays please find someone else to lead any effort to shut down the government. Maybe Ted or Rand. I made my point and got plenty of grief.”

Sen. Mitt Romney: “Please have Trump issue another series of superhero NFT digital trading cards. The fallout from this nonsense helps me with those who think I’ve been too hard on the guy.”

Congressman Chris Stewart: “Chairmanship of the House Intelligence Committee would be a nice gift. Asking again. In return, I will always clear and protect the airways from nefarious foreign interventions on Dec. 24-25 to protect your late-night global excursions.”

National Democrats: “Let Kyrsten Sinema have her fun. But please no more defections.”

National Republicans: “Santa, we always ask for a strong economy. But not too strong; we need to blame Biden for something.”

Salt Lake City Mayor Erin Mendenhall: “I have been very nice this year — especially to Republicans. So I appreciate their efforts to help me with the homeless population. Please keep delivering that generosity.”

Mayoral candidate Rocky Anderson: “Please deliver me just one more chance to tax those Davis County Republicans for driving into Salt Lake City.”

Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson: “Christmas came early with elimination of that veto-proof Republican council majority. Now can you work your magic with the Legislature?”

Congressman John Curtis: “Santa, nothing too difficult — just more visibility for my Conservative Climate Caucus.”

Congressman Burgess Owens: “Santa, I appreciate my new district boundaries. What I really want is an opportunity to tell football stories instead of all this political stuff.”

Congressman Blake Moore: “Santa, I keep hearing whispers about the powerful Ways and Means Committee. It’s not so much to ask.”

All Utahns: “Santa, please deliver extraordinary snow this winter so we can fulfill the basic needs of our lives — water parks, golf courses, perfectly manicured lawns, clean cars, washing down driveways, water skiing, snow skiing, swimming pools, etc.”

Deseret News: Happy Holidays to our readers — especially those masochists who endure Pignanelli & Webb every week.

Utah’s bounteous budget plans — how likely are they to pass?

Gov. Spencer Cox has released his recommendations for the state budget

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Utah’s economy — and its taxpayers — are generating massive amounts of tax revenue for state government. That’s good for Gov. Spencer Cox and Utah legislators who get to spend it. Cox has now released his recommendations for his $28 billion budget — the largest in Utah history. We take a look.

Cox’s proposed budget includes a $6,000 compensation increase for every public school teacher in the state, and $1 billion for a variety of tax cuts. Are these and his other proposals wise expenditures considering the possibility of slowing economic growth in the coming year?

Pignanelli: “Reviewing a government budget is much like going through the attic in an old home.” — Rick Scott  

Cox provided a technical budget document but broadcast implied signals to legislators, special interest groups and the media. The governor is prioritizing public education, tax cuts, water management, housing and rural development. These are valid concentrations as Utahns care for their schools, and slightly lowering the income tax rate does maintain competitiveness while allowing taxpayers to keep a little extra in paychecks.

In my first session as a legislator (about the late Bronze Age) Utah was amid a disastrous economic crisis without relief from the federal government. This experience made me a firm believer in a rainy-day fund for such contingencies. Concerns of a future emergency raise the necessary question of whether the governor’s proposed one-time rebate of taxes to citizens is better allocated towards the savings account.

The governor has successfully set the tone for the next session with direct and inferred communications.

Webb: For an old guy like me, the amount of money available for spending is mind-boggling. I remember too well the hard days of budget cuts and scraping together every penny. Today’s budget is almost an embarrassment of riches. But it is a reflection of good governance that has helped enable a very strong, diversified economy.

And Gov. Cox has budgeted wisely. Nothing is more important to Utah’s future than excellent public education, so it’s appropriate to invest in teacher salaries. We need the best and brightest teaching, mentoring and motivating our young people. Money targeted for water conservation, domestic violence, mental health, housing and homelessness and rural initiatives are all deserved expenditures.

Cox has also been careful to spend a lot of money for one-time purposes so it will be available in the future if the economy goes bad. Substantial debt reduction is a great way to save money for the future. And a big chunk of the governor’s tax relief is in the form of a rebate, meaning it won’t require ongoing money. Utah’s taxes are already low on a historical basis. We don’t need massive tax cuts. Better to invest in one-time infrastructure projects that will further build Utah’s economy and create jobs.

Because the national economy is tenuous right now, it’s important to be conservative. Despite the large numbers, this is a reasonably conservative budget. 

How are Utah’s 104 state legislators likely to react to the governor’s budget recommendations?

Pignanelli: For almost three decades, the Legislature developed its own budget, with occasional reference to the governor. By detailing exact amounts for teacher salary increases and tax cuts, the governor is drawing a line. As usual, legislators will develop their own budget, but next year has a critical difference.

Many lawmakers want to establish a scholarship or vouchers program as an alternative to public education. Cox has repeatedly stated that he will not support such an effort unless teachers are adequately compensated. Thus, his budget address provides these parameters. Lawmakers will tweak his tax cuts and recommendations for water management. Many ancillary proposals (i.e. funding bus fares for a year) are unlikely to survive. As a former lawmaker and lieutenant governor, Cox has a good handle of which objectives are needed and those that need to be jettisoned.

Webb: Lawmakers and their excellent staff have been scrutinizing the budget numbers for many months and they will improve on the governor’s budget, although most of the governor’s priorities will survive. Lawmakers will also be very careful to use large amounts of money for one-time purposes, preserving revenue for the future to prepare for economic decline.

According to a recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll, 63% of Utah voters give Cox a positive approval rating. Will that help him achieve his priorities in the Legislature? 

Pignanelli: In the last year Cox’s veto was overridden by the Legislature, the GOP party chair attacked him on national television and his administration was booed at the convention. Yet, he is enjoying very high approval ratings, which screams volumes about his personality and performance. Therefore, he enters the legislative session in a strong position to prevail.

Webb: The governor enjoys substantial political capital, and that’s always a great asset in a political fight. But the Legislature has a way of keeping high-flying governors humble. Lawmakers will legislate as they wish, but they and the governor are all mainstream politicians. The principals on both sides talk frequently and have good relationships. Legislators know they need the governor’s signature on their bills. In other words, it will be a standoff with sensible compromise.

Are perceived ‘threats to democracy’ real or imagined?

Concerns about the Constitution have existed since its birth. Now is not the time to throw it out

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

A growing number of national politicians, academics and journalists are complaining more frequently that the U.S. Constitution is “undemocratic” and even a “threat to democracy” because it includes such provisions as giving each state, no matter its population, two U.S. senators. They lament the fact that presidents are not elected by popular vote, but instead by the Electoral College, which doesn’t always reflect the majority vote. And because the “undemocratic” Senate confirms federal judges, small states even have disproportionate influence in the judicial system. Thus, they say, all three branches of the federal government are undemocratic and constitutional change is needed. We consider these weighty matters.

It is true that our nation’s founders did not create a pure democracy with perfectly equal representation, proportionate to population. Sparsely populated states have outsized clout in the U.S. Senate and in presidential elections through the Electoral College. One New York Times columnist recently wrote that the greatest long-term threat to democracy in our nation “is, in fact, the Constitution.” He quoted a noted legal scholar who said, “... the Constitution may be the enemy of the democracy it supposedly sustains.” Should the Constitution be amended to enable a true mass democracy?

Pignanelli: “Every constitution, then, and every law, naturally expires at the end of 19 years. If it be enforced longer, it is an act of force and not of right.” — Thomas Jefferson    

Serious concerns with the Constitution have existed since inception. Even many of our brave ancestors who jeopardized their lives and fortunes for independence argued against adopting the document. Yet, as the charter lost many of the initial warts (i.e. slavery, women’s suffrage, etc.) it endured tremendous crises including invasion, a Civil War, Depression and politicians’ nefarious actions.

The founders wanted democracy but with protections to prevent too much power in the hands of an overbearing majority or an unrepresentative minority. This explains the checks and balances that often frustrate the hopes for a more efficient, but possibly dangerous, process.

For 235 years, the Constitution has been an embodiment of our natural rights and liberties. Academics and activists may ponder radical changes or wholesale rejecti

on, but do not offer a superior substitute for one of the world’s oldest democracies. Affection for the union outweighs any desire for amendments.

Thankfully, Jefferson was wrong, and our Constitution continues to thrive.

Webb: The greatest threat to our democratic republic isn’t the Constitution. It’s the left-wing politicians, pundits and academics who would throw out foundational constitutional provisions and create a pure democracy — another name for mob rule. It drives some elitists crazy that the population centers on both coasts and in the big cities don’t completely control politics in this country.

Remember, it was the states that created the federal government, not the other way around. The founders very intentionally created a governance structure that recognized the importance of states and gave each state special status. Today we have 50 very different states. Presidential candidates must recognize them as unique entities. They can’t just campaign to masses of people. The Senate makeup ensures that the small states are not marginalized in the congressional process.

Without these constitutional provisions that the elites call “undemocratic,” politicians wouldn’t care about state interests or state boundaries. They would simply appeal to large population centers. Large states would have multiple senators and small states would be crushed.

Another writer recently noted that the power to set government policy is increasingly disconnected from majority public opinion. He referred to the fact that Donald Trump, who lost the popular vote, appointed three Supreme Court justices, who were then confirmed by the “undemocratic” U.S. Senate, producing a conservative-majority court. Why did the nation’s founders create a governance structure where political power and voice is not distributed evenly on a per-capita basis?

Pignanelli: Americans’ complaints towards the Supreme Court never cease. Recent examples include conservative hatred of the Warren Court and left-wing frustration with the current panel. Liberal presidents and senators also deliver left wing justices. The pendulum swings back and forth.

Thus, Americans understand the need for this deliberative body and will not change the structure.

Webb: Most of the time, public policy should align fairly closely with public opinion. Most of the time, the popular vote should determine presidential election winners. But not always. The founders talked extensively about how passions of the moment can overwhelm good long-term public policy. Majority public opinion can sometimes be impetuous, even reckless. It needs to be tempered by underlying laws, constitutional provisions and processes that prevent thoughtless action.   

Donald Trump recently called for the “termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution” related to elections. Is he also a threat to democracy?

Pignanelli: Americans understand Trump won and lost in accordance with constitutional provisions. Thus, citizens will reject his irresponsible demands to “terminate” our republic.

Webb: It was an exceptionally dumb thing to say even by Trump’s standards. He quickly tried to walk it back. He was rightly lashed by both Republicans and Democrats. But there is a fair amount of hypocrisy among those who blast Trump but want to change the Constitution themselves to benefit politically.

What are your politicians grateful for this season?

If local and national politicians were around your Thanksgiving table, this is what they would be grateful for

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Pignanelli & Webb: Well, it is Thanksgiving weekend, and the only political controversy is who gets the last piece of pumpkin pie. Although it is a time for relaxation with our families, your columnists have been busy using drone technology to eavesdrop on conversations about what people appreciate during this holiday of gratitude. Here’s what we learned:

Every man, woman and child: We are extremely grateful that we can now watch TV and enjoy all those pharmaceutical and automobile advertisements, instead of the constant barrage of negative advertising from the Lee and McMullin campaigns and PACs that supported them.

All Utahns: We are truly blessed to be regularly reminded that a small group of hard-working individuals — who were dismissed by elitists — have demonstrated teamwork, humility and perseverance to overcome difficult obstacles. We are referring of course to our local heroes, the new Utah Jazz (first place in Western Conference!).

Utah parents: We are grateful that Taylor Swift is ignoring Utah on her concert tour, so we don’t feel any pressure to buy tickets for our teens and endure all that hassle.

National pollsters, campaign experts, political wise men, media pundits: We are grateful Americans have a short attention span and will likely forget that we once again missed on our predictions and expectations this political season.

National news media: We are grateful for former President Donald Trump and his return to the national spotlight. He is a ratings machine, giving us daily stories and more advertising revenue. His new presidential bid will keep viewership and readership high among those who both love him and hate him.

National Democratic leaders: We are grateful to Trump and his army of election deniers. Without them this would have been an awful election year.

National Republican leaders: We are grateful to Trump and his army of election deniers. Because of the losses they caused, we can now purge them from our ranks and move on to new leaders.

Advertising agencies, newspapers, TV and radio stations, graphic artists: We are deeply grateful for the cornucopia of blessings our democracy delivers, especially a Supreme Court that reaffirms First Amendment rights of unlimited spending by super PACs and eager billionaires. May they prosper and raise ever more dollars to spend with us on their right-wing and left-wing causes.

Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson: I am grateful for Suzanne Harrison’s election to the County Council. Thank goodness the Council is no longer veto proof.

State Auditor John Dougall: I congratulate all my fellow politicians in their electoral successes. But I’m thankful none of them broke my record for the highest number of votes collected in a statewide race.

Gov. Spencer Cox: I share the gratitude of many that elections are over along with the unrelenting pressure for fundraising. Now it is easier for me to solicit support for my gala next week.

Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson: I am grateful that once again Utah elections are near perfect. Even hard-core election deniers are muted.

Congressman John Curtis: I’m grateful the election is over because now I can get back to wearing my crazy socks.

Congressman Chris Stewart: I am thankful that American democracy triumphed and a Republican majority controls Congress. I now hear that wonderful word, “chairman.”

Congressman Burgess Owens: I appreciate the expressions of confidence made by the voters, and that they didn’t care I blew off the debate.

Congressman Blake Moore: I am grateful for my diplomatic experience because it is going to be needed inside the new, rowdy, Republican Caucus.

Salt Lake City Mayor Erin Mendenhall: I am grateful for the generally peaceful relations between my office and the City Council, the Legislature, the governor and pretty much everyone else in the state. Just what I need for my upcoming election in 2023.

Senate President Stuart Adams and House Speaker Brad Wilson: We are grateful for the Utah economy … and for the munificent surplus we will have next session.

Salt Lake Chamber President Derek Miller: I am grateful for hard-working Utahns, visionary politicians, fair regulators, and creative business leaders that make this state so attractive for companies to move their operations. I just hope they bring water with them.

Jason Perry, moderator, Hinckley Report: Always grateful that Utah leaders make local politics — and my show — interesting.

Pignanelli & Webb: We’re grateful that the elections are over, the holidays are here, and that the politicians we annoy have a sense of humor — at least most of them!

A lot of conservative Utah Republicans don’t want Trump

Shortly after election day, Utah state senators Todd Weiler and Dan McCay recruited other Republicans and released a public statement “encouraging Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to open an exploratory committee to consider running for President of the United States in 2024.” This was signed by 86 elected officials ranging from legislators to county commissioners to the state auditor. We take a look at this unprecedented act.

Why did the Utah officials take this action and is it significant?

Pignanelli: “One of Trump’s messages was that there would be so much winning that people would get tired of winning. Quite frankly, I’m tired of losing,” -- Utah Senator Todd Weiler This unusual exercise by so many officials is an intriguing hybrid of a presidential draft movement for one candidate while serving as an eviction notice for another. The timing of the announcement, the night before a declaration of candidacy by former Pres. Donald Trump, is obviously relevant. The usual conditions still exist as these Republicans support most of Trump's policies but question his personality and strategy. Despite leading an administration with credible successes, his antics are blamed for the losses in 2020 (especially in Georgia) and in 2022.

Utah Republicans are qualified to make such judgments. Most local GOP candidates did not refer to Trump or election fraud. As a result, they increased their legislative numbers, with the only defeat being a Salt Lake County Council seat. This contrasts with the losses suffered in other regions of the country by Trumpistas who should have won in favorable conditions.

DeSantis is a practical choice who fared well in Florida by appealing to various demographic groups. Conversely, the former president continues to aggravate constituencies (i.e. recent dinner with antisemites).

The statement demonstrated an understanding by Utah officials of the American psyche prevalent in the midterm elections. This hybrid proclamation is a new twist on the "Utah Way" of pragmatic collaboration. Well done.

Webb: To their credit, a lot of conservative Republicans are recognizing that you can be a past Trump supporter and still not want him to be the GOP nominee for president next year. You can believe he did a lot of good things as president; you can believe he was (and still is) treated unfairly by the Democrats and traditional media; you can appreciate some aspects of his combative style, his willingness to take on the establishment, his ability to connect with average citizens forgotten by the elite; his willingness to be politically incorrect.

You can believe and appreciate all those things and still not want Trump to be the GOP nominee in 2024. You can take that position because you know Trump will lose in 2024 and take a lot of good Republicans down with him. You can take that position because Trump takes all those good things mentioned above to the extreme. Despite those things you used to like about him, Trump is self-destructive. He has fatal flaws. He is self-centered and disloyal. It’s always all about him.

So, good for the 86 Republicans who signed the statement encouraging DeSantis, not Trump, to seek the presidency next year. Here’s hoping DeSantis (or another non-Trump Republican) wins the nomination.

Considering the lukewarm response to the announcement by Trump that he is seeking the presidency in 2024, will this pronouncement cause national reverberations?

Pignanelli: The letter signed by officials with conservative bona fides signals an organic shift in the GOP. Also, the document provides protection to officials in other states who are questioning both the former president’s abilities to win and do no harm. Thus, the Utah letter will promote similar exercises in many jurisdictions as the questioning of Trump’s candidacy expands. Further, an early push for DeSantis reduces the primary field, eliminating the advantage Trump enjoyed in 2016.

Webb: The statement did get some national publicity because it reflected the sentiment of a lot of Republicans across the country. The big question is whether Republicans can nominate DeSantis or another Republican and still win the votes of the Trump base. They need Trump supporters to win the presidency. DeSantis or another Republican will have to tread delicately, defeating Trump while not alienating his base. DeSantis may be able to do it because he’s basically a non-crazy Trump.

What does this mean for Utah politics in the long run?

Pignanelli: The statement sent an important warning to activists that the rhetoric and tactics used by the former president’s followers will no longer be tolerated. This will have an influence on deliberations in conventions, primaries, and legislative deliberations.

Webb: Hardcore Trump voters may try to defeat some of those who signed the statement. So those signers should be thankful they can gather signatures to get on the primary election ballot and not be at the mercy of convention delegates. It’s a bit ironic, because some of those signers have tried in the Legislature to eliminate the signature-gathering option. Now they may be glad they have it.

A few lessons from the 2022 elections

Of course, one of the strangest midterm elections in memory delivered unpredictable, unprecedented, results. Consequently, national Democrats are gloating and Republicans are backbiting. Political pundits (like your columnists) are desperately trying to explain away our over-reliance on polls and history, and our failed predictions. So, we attempt to redeem ourselves by providing lessons that should be learned after what happened in Utah during the campaign season.

The behavior of convention delegates remains unpredictable -- so get your dang signatures!

Pignanelli: “People want to move away from politics as Thanksgiving and Christmas approaches. So, let's get back to ad nauseam car commercials and pharmaceutical commercials because negative political ads have all just driven us crazy.” – Chris Sununu, Governor, New Hampshire This election cycle unequivocally documented that convention delegates, of both parties, deliver unexpected outcomes. Congressman John Curtis almost suffered the fate of state Rep. Stephen Handy -- elimination at state or county convention.

Other candidates struggled at convention, but reached the primary ballot through signatures. Some pundits are ruminating the scenario if Senate candidate Kael Weston had secured his nomination by signatures instead of expecting delegates to behave rationally and nominate a Democrat contender for top ballot placement. A signature petition for the primary ballot is a cheap insurance policy against early political retirement.

Webb: Steve Handy is a classy guy, liked by nearly everyone, and will be greatly missed in the Legislature. A second important lesson is this: Write-in campaigns, as was attempted by Handy, are really, really, really hard to win.

If you’re going to challenge an incumbent, you need to bring more to the table than just hard work.

Pignanelli: Mike Lee’s campaign (brilliantly led by Matt Lusty) used shrewd tactics to capitalize on Evan McMullin’s lack of definition. A converse example is the Salt Lake County Council At-Large race. Incumbent Richard Snelgrove is a well-respected businessman who garners affection across the political spectrum. But his opponent, Rep. Suzanne Harrison, developed a strong political persona as a physician that appealed to majority of voters.

Webb: Incumbents have many advantages, so they win a high percentage of races. That was demonstrated at local, state and federal levels. So, if you want to win an election, get yourself appointed to replace someone who resigns. Then you’ll always be the incumbent and you’ll almost always win.

Harrison was one of the few big wins for Democrats in Utah. She was a very good candidate and had a remarkable amount of money to overwhelm Snelgrove with advertising.

Avoid extremist, conspiratorial, voter fraud messaging.

Pignanelli: Election results across the country demonstrated despite high rates of inflation and crime, voters do not want to hear inflammatory rhetoric, especially about prior elections. Most local GOP candidates avoided such nonsense and solidified their gains.

Webb: I totally blame Donald Trump for helping a bunch of election deniers win nominations, only to be defeated in the general election. Trump is a proven election loser and he drags down everyone around him. He is loyal to no one but himself. You may love him, but he doesn’t really care about you and if you don’t serve his purposes he’ll dump you in a heartbeat. Almost everyone close to him ends up as his enemy.

If Trump is the GOP nominee in 2024, the party is doomed. Here’s something very important: You can like most of what Trump did as president (as I do), you can dislike the unfair way he’s been treated by the media and progressives, and you can still fully agree that he’s not the right person for 2024. The GOP has some terrific candidates representing the next generation. Let’s support one of them, not Trump.

If you’re going to run as an independent, then be an independent.

Pignanelli: Utahns are noted for their common sense, explaining a wariness of “independent” candidates. The Evan McMullin campaign was not shy in utilizing funding programs, consultants and campaign stuff associated with Democrats. Since McMullin had not clearly defined himself, his use of Democrat structural support only enhanced suspicions.

Webb: McMullin’s very public solicitation of Democratic Party endorsement was part of what doomed him. But at least the race provided some political drama in an otherwise snoozer election in Utah.

Polls are important but you cannot over rely on them.

Pignanelli: Most polling by national Democrat and Republican organizations were incorrect in numbers and trends. These mistakes also afflicted local surveys, leading to the battle of polls over the summer. (The exception was Lee’s internal pollster Chris Wilson WPA Analytics who consistently placed the incumbent where the results finally landed.) Bad polling leads to ineffective campaign strategies and therefore future campaigns must demand greater quality in determining voter preference.

Webb: If you live by the polls, you die by the polls. Polls provide one set of data to consider, but only one among many. I thought the polls, overall, were better this election than the last few. I thought they would underestimate GOP support, but many of them did the opposite at the end, which was very surprising. Polling is just very difficult in today’s world of multiple communications apps and devices and widespread suspicion and cynicism.

The frightful politicians of Halloween weekend

If our politicians were Halloween enthusiasts, what costumes would they wear?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Pignanelli & Webb: This is the time where ghouls, goblins and ghosts are haunting neighborhoods and the airwaves, scaring ordinary people. We are talking, of course, about the end days — of the election season — with many voters terrified. But it also happens to be Halloween weekend. In honor of this ever-more-popular holiday, we tap into our secret artificial intelligence algorithms to reveal the costumes Utah and national politicos will be wearing for trick-or-treating — possibly in your neighborhood! (Hide the children!)

Gov. Spencer Cox will be fitted in a Buzz Lightyear suit to promote the new state flag and the ambitious new state slogan: “To infinity and beyond!”

House Speaker Brad Wilson will scare people costumed as a brine shrimp with “Save me! Save Me!” emblazoned across his back to support his tireless campaign to re-water the Great Salt Lake.

Former Congressman Ben McAdams will be portraying Oscar Zoroaster (aka the “Great and Terrible” Wizard of Oz) since rumors abound he is the “man behind the curtain” guiding the McMullin Senate campaign.

Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson will be donning the apparel of Captain Marvel to reflect her never-ending fight against nonsensical allegations of voter fraud.

Senate President Stuart Adams will be appropriately costumed as Albus Dumbledore, the good “Harry Potter” wizard, because he is so deft in exuding patience while providing wisdom in the chaos of the Legislature.

Independent Senate candidate Evan McMullin will assume the role and dress of a monster called Browbeater. He can be seen walking neighborhoods shouting, “You will care about Jan. 6! Yes, you will! Forget about inflation! You will care about Jan. 6! You will ignore the liberal Democrats funding me! You will care about Jan. 6!”

Sen. Mike Lee will return as the Norse god Thor using the big hammer to squash liberals, Big Tech companies, Democrats funding independent candidates and those not respectful of the Constitution. But he will also show humility by carrying a sign saying, “Yes, comparing Donald Trump to Captain Moroni was really, really dumb. Please forgive as Chief Judge Pahoran did!”

Sen. Mitt Romney will be Maverick from ‘Top Gun” since both are unconventional in action and have great hair.

Our algorithm has only turned up a rumor that former President Donald Trump will appear as the Great Pumpkin because we know he exists and has an orange tone. But we’re just not sure when and where he will appear next. Maybe 2024 in Iowa and New Hampshire?

President Joseph Biden will be dressed as Edward John Smith, the stoic captain of the Titanic, who went down with the ship. He was last seen rearranging deck chairs.

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will be appearing as recently resigned U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss to get a head start on the abrupt change about to occur.

U.S. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will be wearing a Spiderman suit in anticipation of the new powers he’s about to receive.

Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson will be sporting a Velma Dinkley costume from the “Scooby-Doo” cartoons in the hopes of solving the mystery of how to find a more compliant County Council.

Salt Lake City Mayor Erin Mendenhall will be dressed as a Home Depot power shopper as she spends most of her days building homes throughout the city for homeless people.

State Auditor John Dougall will be a dragon from the “Game of Thrones” series because he likes how they are feared and can burn things down.

University of Utah President Taylor Randall will be dressed as Annie Sullivan, the famous miracle worker who taught Helen Keller. Taylor has performed similar miracles as the first university president in generations that is well liked by Utahns of all types — Republican, Democrat, urban, rural, business, community activist and even grumpy faculty.

Attorney General Sean Reyes will be Hamlet, carrying a skull and proclaiming, “To be or not to be … governor … senator … maybe attorney general again?”

Senate Minority Leader Karen Mayne will be honored by her colleagues and constituents in wearing the Superwoman costume to reflect her amazing courage in the face of adversity.

House Minority leader Brian King will be dressed as Doctor Strange in the hopes that he can find the magic weapon to help his Democrats fend off the red wave.

The four incumbent Republican members of Congress, John Curtis, Chris Stewart, Blake Moore and Burgess Owens will be attending functions as the four horsemen of the zombie apocalypse, proclaiming the dire results that befall Utah and the nation should they not be elected.

In response, the four Democratic challengers Rick Jones, Nick Mitchell, Glenn Wright and Darlene McDonald will be the four musketeers, because they believe in all for one and one for all as they go up against insurmountable odds.

In response to popular demand, Pignanelli and Webb will be dressed as Dumb and Dumber. We’re not sure if this is a reflection of our intelligence, personality, appearance or, most likely, all three. (We refuse to reveal which one is Dumber.)